If one is looking for total safety one should chain oneself to ones bed and never leave; one can only make money if one takes a risk. Sol Palha
Results From Aug 2006 to March 2007
The table below contains information on 28 of our most recent futures trades dating all the way back to August 2006. Our latest home run was in copper which generated over 16,000 in profits per contract. We have updated our systems now to catch the full move of the New leg up or down of any market that has either bottomed or topped. This is can be seen if one looks at our recent trades in Cocoa, Soybeans, Copper etc.
28 trades 3 of which were rolled over; rolled over means one gets out of the contract from the current month to the next month. We have 3 losers. The 3 contracts that we rolled were over were Dow shorts; initially the acid here was quite high but when the market dropped they dropped fast and we were able to recover all our money and lock in some very decent gains. When we rolled over in the Dow Short we took the average entry price of the 3 contracts instead of listing them all as we actually rolled over at much higher prices but we listed the original average entry price as our initial entry. In other words when the new contracts were bought they were bought at significantly higher levels but to illustrate our position (profit or loss) we listed the original average entry price of all the 3 contracts. Some traders who did not take part in the initial trade but only took part in the second trade locked in rather huge gains.
However the 3 losers are not all loser simply because when we got into the sugar contract we divided the money into 3 lots and bought 3 contracts. Two contracts lost money but the third made enough money to cover the losses produced by the first two and also produce a profit. If we look at it this way then we really have only one loser.
So we can examine the results from several angles.
We can list one of the Dow trades as a loss as we got into one of them at 11820 while the other two produced a profit. Again as in the case with sugar this does not fully make sense as the original sum of money to be invested was divided into 3 lots; one lot lost money but the other two lots made enough money to cover the loss and produce again.
If we count one of the Dow trades aS loss we have 4 losers out of 28 plays for an accuracy rate of 85.71%
If we look at the results in the light that sugar and the Dow were both winners as the overall trades produced gains then we only have one loser for a an accuracy rate of 96.4%.
We are not stating that we can always maintain such a high accuracy rate and we would be very happy with an accuracy rate in the 75%-84% ranges.
There are several reasons why the accuracy rate has gone up.
Finally after years of tweaking our tools we have finally adapted them fully for the futures markets. Initially the tools were designed just for equities and thus it took us time to re tabulate all these tools for all the different futures markets.
Secondly we have started using Artificial intelligence in combination with genetic algorithms; to make a long story short these algorithms are adaptive rather then being static so they adapt to changing market conditions. What the AI program helps us achieve is to help us to spot new potential trends; in the past it would take several hours to manually go through each market and hence we had to limit ourselves to a few markets because of time restrictions. When we are fully done testing our AI systems we will be implementing a significant price increase in this service due to the amount of money we had to allocate to this venture; those that join will at most only have to pay a very small extra sum.
Now with this program we are able to examine almost any futures market out there and if it appears on our AI screen then we go to the second stage
This is the stage where in dept pattern analysis is performed. All our tools esoteric cycles, phase analysis, multi time frame analysis, standard deviation analysis, our custom TA tools and finally a mass psychology analysis is performed. This analysis still takes hours but now we can dedicate this time only to markets that have given an initially buy or sell signal.
We must state that futures and small cap penny stocks are not for all players; only individuals that understand the concept of no risk no gain should consider this service. When you enter the futures arena the risk factor goes up several notches and so does the volatility factor. The volatility factor is a bigger issue as many players jump out of what could have been a profitable play just because they were shaken up by the big up and down moves.
Finally we have a new tool that tells us which markets are better to invest in equities or futures. When the tool points to futures it means that there are going to be a lot more trading opportunities in this arena and that the volatility levels here will be somewhat lower then the equities markets and vice versa. Thus if this tool states that futures are a better play then we will issue more trades in the futures markets and less stock plays and vice versa.