Trending Now News Equates To Garbage; It’s All Talk & No Action

Trending Now Fake News

Trending Now (Fake) News Equates To Garbage

Have you ever heard or seen the press push good news and that begs the question why?  Fear sells, and everyone is using fear as the tool to manipulate the masses.  It is the oldest trick in the books, but unfortunately, it works like a charm.  The so-called Trending Now News concept is just another ploy to make garbage somewhat platable.
Once you realise the ploy, it is easy to deal with the issue. How do you recognise the ruse, the best way is to stop watching TV. For example, I cut the cord roughly 10 years ago. I am always asked if I have a smart TV, and I respond with “yes it’s brilliant” because it keeps its mouth shut most of the time.   When you stop watching the news which is nothing but gossip on steroids, one finds out that nothing has changed. That’s when the realisation sinks in that today’s news has, and will always be an avenue for the best gossipers to turn garbage into sensational headlines. The news is worse than “toilet paper”; at least toilet paper is good for one swipe, one can’t lay the same claim to today’s news.
Bull Neutral Bear chartAnxiety-April-10-2019
The media is going to continue to weaponise the news. Be prepared for fantasy claims regarding Brexit, the trade war with China, and any other factor that can be spun.   Ridiculous claims that make no sense will be used to try to push the fear factor higher; once again the best solution is to just ignore what the media is pushing and focus on the trend.
The “silver lining” is that fear of the unknown increases the “uncertainty factor” and in doing so breathes even more life into this bull market. Until the Masses embrace this bull, this mad bull is unlikely to die.  The logical path based on the news is to panic, the illogical path is to ignore. Logic works when it’s based on reality, but fear is not based on reality, it’s based on a perception of what “could” happen. If you start to fantasize over what could, would, and should happen, one cannot focus on the trend.  Ignore the noise and focus on the trend. 

Despite the fact, that the DOW is dangerously close to testing its old highs, there are too many traders sitting on the sidelines waiting for the markets to pull back.  For almost this entire year, the number of individuals in the neutral camp has exceeded the individuals in the Bearish and Bullish camps.  Neutrality equates to uncertainty and uncertain individuals are the 1st ones to panic.

These chaps will react the same way they have always reacted in the past when the markets do pullback, they will panic and flee for the hills and the whole process of waiting for the next pullback will start over again. In the end, these guys worry about everything but never focus on the main issue, which is to make money in the markets. The only way to make money in the markets is to be in it; as the say, the rest is just noise. Hence there is a very good chance that the next pullback could push neutral readings to the 50% mark. Every time this has occurred (since the inception of this bull market), the markets recouped their losses and then surged to new highs.

The weekly charts illustrate that the Dow is now trading in the overbought ranges; it still has a bit of room before it moves into the extremely overbought zone.  On the monthly charts the MACD’s have still not experienced a bullish crossover; until they do there is always a chance that the markets could experience a stronger than expected pullback.  If this occurs embrace the correction as we from Nov 2018 to Jan 2019.  Market Update April 13, 2019

Random thoughts on the Fed and Stock Market March 2019

In terms of the stock market, until the Fed changes its mind, all sharp corrections have to be viewed as buying opportunities, and backbreaking corrections have to be placed in the category of “once in a lifetime events”, provided of course the trend is positive. That is what we are here for; to inform you if the trend is positive (Up) or negative (down).
The world is going to witness a Fed that has decided to make a cocktail of Coke, Heroin, Crack and Meth and take it all in one shot. Imagine what a junkie on this combination of potent drugs is capable of doing, and you will have an idea of where the Fed is heading in the years to come. Now the Gold bugs will cry “I told you so”. Our response to this statement; not so fast little bugs. While precious metals will do well, we think stocks in key sectors (and we are not referring to Gold stocks) will pulverise the precious metals sector in terms of returns. One such area is robots (particularly Sex-bots) and AI.  Market Update Feb 28, 2019 
Courtesy of Tactical Investor

Random views on Trending Now Fake News

how to avoid financial fake news

Steve McDonald (SM): The topic this week is information sources. With the president claiming that there’s all types of fake news out there, I have news for him: There’s always been fake news in the money press.

So we have Matthew Carr here today to talk about reliable information sources and why that’s so important if you’re going to get the market right.

Welcome, Matt.

Matthew Carr (MC): Thanks for having me, Steve.

SM: It’s my pleasure. We’re not going to get political, I promise you. But is there a lot of fake news in the money press?

MC: Oh, I’m with you. I believe there’s always been some sort of fake news or bias in the press. You know, when I was growing up, we were always taught to read, for example, The Washington Times and The Washington Post.

You read the same story in both publications. They each have a slant either to the left or the right. And you know that somewhere in the middle is the truth. And in the financial press, everybody’s going to pick their sides.

We live in this divided world where our political affiliations sort of dictate everything that we do, so it is important you try to make sure you’re cobbling together the best, clearest picture as possible, and a lot of times that just means pulling from as many sources as possible.

SM: Do you have a primary source of information that you like to use? Full Story

How Social Media Giants Are Fighting The Fake News Menace

In recent times, the issue of fake content has taken epic proportions. Major social media platforms like Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) , Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) , Weibo (NASDAQ:WB) and Alphabet’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google have frequently come under fire for failing to combat the spread of fake news on their platforms.

Social media giants are playing an expansive role in connecting the world, thanks to the improvement in Internet speed and connectivity as well as solid penetration of mobile devices. Per a survey by Pew Research Center last year, 20% of American adults learn about current affairs through social media and only 16% through newspapers.

However, according to the Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2018, the usage of social media and aggregators for news is declining, primarily due to trust and privacy issues, and fake news concerns. The report, which surveyed more than 74,000 people in 37 markets, stated that only 23% of respondents trust the news they find on social media.

Fake News Proliferates Faster

Fake news is spread via bots and fake profiles that use cookies to track people’s website visits. Based on that data, fake profilers and bots allure users to view fake content. Notably, this not only fans the flames of misinformation but also creates cybersecurity threats.

Fake news has been responsible for numerous sensitive situations, including terror propaganda and tampering with people’s sentiments about culture, religion and politics. Full Story

 

How To Invest In A Time Of Fake News?

This election year has created a major challenge for investors: How to deal with the fake news that now circulates daily. The basis of investment fake news is trying to build forecasts and outlooks on political pronouncements. Therefore, we need to ignore the fake flow and focus on facts. Only by doing so can we have a sensible strategy for pursuing returns and controlling risks.

Disclosure: Author is invested in selected U.S. stocks and actively managed U.S. stock funds. Holdings include Apple, Starbucks and Walt Disney, mentioned below.

“Fake news” has two components, commonly used after elections

Taking as fact the statements of desire (primarily by President-elect Donald Trump) that drove the election cycle. The problem is that desires often change when the governing period starts, Moreover, the U.S. Government structure and political realities offer no assurance that desires can become reality, either quickly or as envisioned.

Making pronouncements of surefire investment actions based on simplistic interpretations of those statements of desire. This elementary A=B without fact, fulsome reasoning and common sense is an invitation to underperformance or, worse, loss as the contrarian approach turns out to be the correct path.
Ramping up the challenge is the trail of contradictory statements of desire

Based on his Donald Trump’s statements regarding military buildup, the advice is that we should buy defense stocks. However, what about Trump’s roast of Boeing and Lockheed, plus his dismissive attitude toward our NATO allies, a source of foreign sales? Full Story

Originally posted 2019-05-14 10:59:01.

Boeing 737

Boeing 737 800

Boeing (BA) CEO Dennis Muilenburg has once again reiterated his expectations about the 737 MAX resuming services in the fourth quarter. Muilenburg made the comments during an investor conference in California on September 11, according to CNBC.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVQz3RKrUfwHowever, he warned that the timetable of the jet’s return could be different in every country, given the disparity among regulators, reports CNBC. Muilenburg said, “I think the phased ungrounding of the airplane amongst regulators around the world is a possibility.”

Boeing is awaiting safety approval for the 737 MAX, which has been under a global flying ban since mid-March after a software problem caused two deadly accidents within five months. Once Boeing updates the software, world regulators will scrutinize it before approving the model to fly again.

The quick return of the MAX is critical for Southwest Airlines (LUV), American Airlines (AAL), and United Airlines (UAL). Together, the three airlines own 72 Boeing 737 MAX planes. They have suffered over 35,000 flight cancellations since the MAX’s grounding, costing them millions of dollars in foregone revenue and operating profit.

Why could the 737 MAX’s return be in phases?
Muilenburg’s concerns look realistic given the changing circumstances. On September 3, The Wall Street Journal reported that Boeing “failed to provide technical details and answer specific questions about modifications in the operation of MAX flight-control computers.” It added that regulators from the US, Europe, Brazil, and many other countries cut short Boeing’s August briefing. Full Story

Indonesia blames Malaysian companies for some forest fires

JAKARTA (Reuters) – Indonesia on Friday blamed four Malaysian companies, including the world’s biggest producer of sustainable palm oil, for causing some of the forest fires within its borders, in an escalating row between neighbours over regional haze.

Malaysia has said Indonesian forest fires are responsible for the smoky haze that has caused air quality to drop to unhealthy levels in certain parts of the country. Indonesia has dismissed those claims, saying fires within Malaysia are causing the pollution. Full Story

 

2020 Dem Debates: Round Three

Round three of the Democratic debates is scheduled for 8 p.m. EDT Thursday at Texas Southern University in Houston. It’s the first debate to be contained to one night, and is expected to take three hours. 10 candidates will be on stage; former Vice President Joe Biden (DE), Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA), Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT), Sen. Kamala Harris (CA), South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (IN), former Congressman Beto O’Rourke (TX), businessman Andrew Yang (NY), Sen. Cory Booker (NJ), former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro (TX), and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (MN). Full Story

 

Asian markets move higher on hopes for a cooling trade war

Hong Kong (CNN Business)Asian stocks rallied Friday on continued hopes for a break in the US-China trade war.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) was up 0.3% at market open, gaining ground after posting losses Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei (N225) jumped nearly 1%.
Markets in mainland China and South Korea were closed for holidays. Full Story

Originally posted 2019-09-13 13:48:10.

Syria Turkey: offensive: Syrian army heads north after Kurdish deal

Syria Turkey

Syria Turkey: Syrian government forces have started to reach the north of the country, hours after the government agreed to help Kurdish forces facing Turkey.

Syrian state media say government forces entered Ain Issa on Monday, 30km (19 miles) south of the Turkish border.

The deal came after the US, the Kurds’ main ally, said it would withdraw its remaining troops from northern Syria.

Turkey began an offensive in the region last week, aiming to push Kurdish forces from the border region.

Areas under the control of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) came under heavy bombardment over the weekend, with Turkey making gains in two key border towns.

Dozens of civilians and fighters have been killed on both sides.

The US announced on Sunday it was preparing to evacuate its 1,000 remaining soldiers from northern Syria.The Turkish offensive and US withdrawal have drawn an international outcry, as the SDF were the main allies of the West in the battle against the Islamic State (IS) group in Syria.

There have been fears about a possible resurgence of the group amid the instability. On Sunday Kurdish officials said nearly 800 relatives of foreign IS members had escaped from a camp in Ain Issa, where the Syrian army reportedly has now reached.

Turkey views elements of the Kurdish groups as terrorists and says it wants to drive them away from a “safe zone” reaching 32km into Syria. Full Story

 

The K-pop star Sulli has died aged 25

Police told the BBC the singer’s manager found her dead at her home near Seoul, South Korea.

They say they are investigating the cause of her death and are working on the ‎assumption that she may have taken her own life.‎

The star, who had more than five million followers on Instagram, was a former member of the band f(x) until she left in 2015 to focus on her acting career. Full Story

 

Other articles of interest

Stock Market Crash Stories Experts Push Equate to Nonsense

Most Hated Stock Market Bull can’t be stopped by weak economy

Permabear – A Special Kind Of A Stupid One

Technology Driven Deflation Will Kill The Inflation Monster

Nothing about 1987 stock market crash anniversary

Nickel Stocks Has Put In A long Term Bottom

AMD vs Intel

BitCoin VS Precious Metals

Originally posted 2019-10-14 16:12:55.

France pension reform: huge jams

France pension reform

Macron pension reform: Paris paralysed by massive strike

The French capital is seeing huge jams and massive crowds on the few metro lines running as transport workers strike against planned France pension reform.

Ten of Paris’s 16 lines were shut and service on the others was disrupted.

Many workers cycled, walked or stayed at home, while free rides were on offer on transport operator RATP’s e-moped and Uber’s e-bike and scooter networks.

The strike, the biggest since 2007, is the first big act against President Macron’s plan for a universal pension.

It would replace dozens of different pension schemes for different professions.

Macron unveils reforms after yellow-vest protests
How safe are electric scooters?
Could e-bikes be the future?
Members of other professions including lawyers, airline staff and medical workers have called for more strikes starting on Monday.

What is the situation in Paris?
There were 235km (145 miles) of traffic jams in the Paris region, officials said, more than double normal levels.

Local media showed photos of crammed platforms on four metro lines, where some trains were running.

Le Parisien newspaper said a legal requirement to maintain a minimum level of service – in place following a big strike in 2007, which was also against a pension overhaul – was not being fulfilled.

Three of the city’s five regional rail lines, run by national rail operator SNCF, were running as normal but the two other lines were offering a reduced rush hour service and no trains at all during the rest of the day. Full Story

Myanmar’s deadly ‘jade rush’

The world’s biggest jade mines are found in the restive Kachin state in Myanmar.

BBC Burmese gained rare access to area where mountains have been turned into moonscapes. Full Story

South Africa sexual violence protesters target stock exchange

People campaigning over the high levels of violence against women in South Africa have taken their protest to the financial heart of the country.

Hundreds have gathered outside the Johannesburg Stock Exchange to call on the country’s big firms to do more to tackle gender inequality. Full Story

 

Malaria vaccine in Kenya – a potential game-changer

The world’s first malaria vaccine is being rolled out in parts of Kenya from Friday, after previously being released in Ghana and Malawi.

It will be added to the routine vaccination schedule, and more than 300,000 children are expected to receive the vaccine over the next three years. Full Story

Other article of interest

Stock Market Crash Stories Experts Push Equate to Nonsense

Most Hated Stock Market Bull can’t be stopped by weak economy

Permabear – A Special Kind Of A Stupid One

Technology Driven Deflation Will Kill The Inflation Monster

Nothing about 1987 stock market crash anniversary

Nickel Stocks Has Put In A long Term Bottom

Originally posted 2019-09-13 13:34:00.

Hotels in new Orleans near Bourbon street

Hard Rock Hotel under construction in New Orleans

Hotels in new Orleans near Bourbon street: A large portion of a Hard Rock Hotel under construction in New Orleans collapsed Saturday morning, killing at least two people and injuring 20 others, authorities said. The building bordering the city’s historic French Quarter is considered unstable and officials said further collapse is possible.

Three people were initially reported missing, though one has since been found, according to the New Orleans Fire Department. Authorities said no one on the ground was injured in the collapse.

According to Mayor LaToya Cantrell, 112 people were in the building at the time of collapse. Though the search for those missing was suspended for the evening, Cantrell confirmed that rescuers found two bodies but were unable to retrieve them.

Streets surrounding the site were closed and some buildings were evacuated, including the nearby 145-year-old New Orleans Athletic Club.

CBS affiliate WWL shared video of the collapse which showed construction workers running for their lives as the parts of the hotel came crashing down.

Governor John Bel Edwards was at the scene urging residents to stay away from the area. “I’m just asking for everybody to pray for those who are at the hospital,” Edwards told reporters.

Mayor Cantrell issued a statement saying “our hearts break for the loss of life.”

Construction plans for the 350-room hotel include a 12,000 square foot event space, two ballrooms and a residential space, according to a news release. Full Story

Kurds fighting Turks after U.S. withdrawal

The U.S. plans to withdraw 1,000 troops from northern Syria. Donald Trump tweeted on Sunday that it’s “very smart not to be involved in the intense fighting.” Turkish soldiers are attacking Kurdish fighters, who helped the U.S. combat ISIS. It’s estimated 130,000 people have been displaced due to violence. Roxana Saberi reports. Full Story

 

Nobel Prize in economics 2019 goes to Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer

Stockholm — The 2019 Nobel Prize in economics was awarded Monday to Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer for pioneering new ways to alleviate global poverty. Banerjee and Duflo are at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, while Kremer, an American is at Harvard University. The three have often worked together. Full Story

 

Other articles of interest

Stock Market Crash Stories Experts Push Equate to Nonsense

Most Hated Stock Market Bull can’t be stopped by weak economy

Permabear – A Special Kind Of A Stupid One

Technology Driven Deflation Will Kill The Inflation Monster

Nothing about 1987 stock market crash anniversary

Nickel Stocks Has Put In A long Term Bottom

AMD vs Intel

BitCoin VS Precious Metals

Originally posted 2019-10-14 12:43:17.

Stock Market Crash Stories Experts Push Equate to Nonsense

stock market crash lies

Stock Market Crash Lies Make for Excellent Fables

The lies the media and all the experts were pumping during the sell-off phase (Nov-Dec 2018) was that the crowd had to worry about higher rates and an increasingly hawkish Fed.  And viola like magic the narrative has changed, now they are talking about a Powell put and how the Fed is turning dovish, which clearly proves two points we have been stating for a long time

  1. Mass Media should be viewed and treated with the same respect one accords to sewage.
  2. The masses (which include the experts) are always on the wrong side of the fence. For the record, these same penguins were stating that the markets were destined to crash last year.

Fear pays Poorly

First of all, we hope that the majority of our subscribers are starting to perceive that succumbing to Fear is a dangerous strategy to adopt.  Life and investing should not be stressful; stress is something that every Tactical Investor should abhor.  Moreover, remember, stress comes down to perceptions; alter the perception and one can shift from being stressed to being serene.

Experts love to push the argument that investing is hard and that it takes forever to master this art. Remember that investing is an art, not a science and art is meant to be enjoyed.  So are the masses starting to jump on the bandwagon after this strong turn around; the obvious answer would be yes_? The not so obvious answer would be ___? Continue reading, and you will find out 🙂

Investors are sitting on a massive pile of cash, and it is growing by the day.

The masses panicked when the so-called Santa Claus rally failed to materialise. What they failed to spot was that Santa was providing the astute player with a lovely shopping list and all the goods were on sale.   This January effect was one of the strongest on record and more than makes up for the Santa Claus fail, proving that our stance to remain cool during the so-called December meltdown (opportunity as far we are concerned) was the right posture to take. Santa Claus did not give presents last year, but he provided us with a fantastic list of stocks to buy at a discount price.

To date institutions and individuals have poured billions upon billions of dollars into money market funds. The apparent culprits were; Interest rates, the trade war, government shutdown, Trump investigations and whatever other rubbish you can come up with. Money market assets surged to $3 trillion this January, the highest level since March of 2010, clearly indicating that the masses as always know nothing and jump into the wrong investment at precisely the right time.

Pay close attention to the masses for the data they willingly provide is worth its weight in Gold. Sadly, the masses volunteer for the role of being used as “cannon fodder” over and over again. Try to save them, and they are likely to crucify you to the nearest pole they can find. Watch or read Plato’s allegory of the cave to understand why the masses will never reward anyone that tries to open their eyes.

Common Themes During Stock Market Crashes

The world is ending, and everyone needs to flee for the hills. The wretched media then diligently create a cocktail on steroids, and serve it to the herd; without fail, they fall for the same ploy over and over again.

“Investors can penalize themselves. While money market funds offer safety, they come at a cost as they accept a lower yield,” said Jerome Schneider, head of short-term portfolio management at PIMCO in Newport Beach, California.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BgQ79evjylc

“I like cash now. You can earn a very reasonable return on cash,” said James Sarni, senior portfolio manager at Payden & Rygel in Los Angeles.

We stated all along that the Fed was lying about inflation and now the truth has emerged. Suddenly Powell is changing his tune. Now he has pledged to be “patient” before raising rates; what gives? B.S that is what gives, the Fed’s only function is to foster boom and bust cycles.

“I worry those investors who have long-term horizons may be hurting themselves,” said Kristina Hooper, global market strategist at Invesco in New York.

As always the masses will wait until the very end, then they will jump in and shortly after that the markets will tank. For the masses, the only possible outcome is pain and loss.  Investors sitting on the sidelines are already paying the price, quality stocks have made a strong comeback from their Dec lows, and the party has just begun.

PIMCO’s Schneider stated the following, and we could not agree more

“They tend to play it safe for too long,”

What Is Our Response To These  Stock Market Crash Stories 

It is rubbish end of story, for the markets have already priced this factor in and the experts are now going to spin gossip into news. At the moment they are still pushing the Tariff wars issue, but it will end on the same note; lots of huffing and puffing but the bad wolf will not be able to blow the house down.  What will knock this bull out? When the masses are ecstatic; until then all the nonsense that is graciously labelled as “news” should be taken with a barrel of salt and a shot of whiskey.

 Despite, the sharp rally the markets have experienced, the masses surprisingly are far from bullish; in fact, the largest number of individuals is in the neutral camp. The current reading; the number of individuals in the neutral camp stands at 37 and bears account for 32; this means that 69% of individuals are still either uncertain or bearish and that has to be viewed as fantastic development. 

Courtesy of Tactical Investor

Random views on Sock Market Lies

Stock Market Facing a 2019 Crash: 70% Correction Warning

July 2019 will mark exactly 10 years since the end of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009. It will also mark the longest period of economic expansion on record, surpassing the 1991 to 2001 internet boom.

The question – Is the current boom sustainable?

The 90s economic boom was fuelled by the internet. This economic recovery has been fuelled by historically low-interest rates and cheap credit – a situation many investors and economists say cannot last.

Warning Signs: The End of the Economic Boom
2018 has been the most volatile year in the stock market since the recession, and volatility can make stock market crises more likely.

The Interest Rates and Financial Crises Relationship
As the US economy firing on all cylinders, the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates eight times since 2015. However, as the US nears full employment, there is an increased danger of rising inflation and consumer prices.

Increasing interest rates is a strategy to curb the rise of inflation – increasing the cost of credit and making saving more attractive strikes a balance between people spending and saving.

However, there are also dangers to this approach. Lower consumer spending has a negative impact on the revenue of consumer-facing businesses. Declining revenue then tightens spending across both the consumer and business landscapes. At the same time, higher interest rates make it harder for financially weak companies to meet their debt obligations. Full Story

A Global Market Crash In 2019? 5 Must-See Charts!

Global markets look shaky. Global stocks were volatile this year, and even U.S. stocks have followed their path lower in recent months. The million dollar question is whether this will result in a global market crash in 2019 or whether this is the end of a weak period. After publishing our Stock Market Crash In 2019 Brewing forecast we now look at global markets. Based on these 5 charts we want to make a point about the probability of a global market crash in 2019, and indicate which leading indicators to watch.

InvestingHaven’s recent analysis of the important and violet global market crashes recent decades shows that any important crash started with weakness in currency and credit markets.

In other words any attempt to forecast a global market crash starts with a thorough analysis of leading currency charts as well as yields.

More specifically we have to look for the long term chart patterns, and structural changes in patterns like reversals from secular support or resistance as well as breakouts or breakdowns from secular trends. This is also the focus in this article, and we do so based on 5 long term charts.

The short answer to our question whether we should prepare for a global market crash in 2019: no we do not see enough evidence as of now of a global market crash in 2019 but some of our leading indicators are visibly deteriorating. Full Story

Stock Market Crash Inevitable in 2019: Bitcoin to Rise

Whenever a person buys a bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency, basically you are investing in a market known as the crypto market. Most of the people think that there must be a relation between the current trend of other markets such as the stock market on the crypto market. And if it so, one must be worried about what will happen to the crypto market if the stock market collapse. Also, before that, one must foresee the chances of the stock market to be crashed in the upcoming years.

Well, in this article we will discuss two things which are anyhow interconnected to each other. The first phenomenon that we are going to discuss is the collapse of the stock market in 2019. Is it going to happen and what are the chances of the stock market crash in 2019? In the next section, we will discuss how if the stock market crashes in 2019, it will uplift the crypto market and bitcoin will rise due to it. So, let us first focus on how the collapse of the stock market is inevitable in 2019.

The stock market going to crash in 2019:
It has been ten years that a stock market crashed. As per the trade experts, the stock market is definitely going to collapse this year. The year 2018 itself was one of the worst years for stock market after 2008. Let us have some facts regarding the stock market current scenario: Full Story

 

Originally posted 2019-04-10 18:41:09.

Most Hated Stock Market Bull can’t be stopped by weak economy

Most Hated Stock Market Bull can't be stopped by weak economy

The data below serves as further proof that the economic recovery is nothing but an illusion.  It has only benefited those who don’t really need it. The rich have become even richer, the middle class has vanished and the poor are becoming even poorer.

 

  1. Real incomes have been flat to down slightly for the average household in the bottom 60% since 1980 (while they have been up for the top 40%).
  2. Those in the top 40% now have on average 10 times as much wealth as those in the bottom 60%. That is up from six times as much in 1980.
  3. Only about a third of the bottom 60% saves any of its income (in cash or financial assets).
  4. Only about a third of families in the bottom 60% have retirement savings accounts—e.g., pensions, 401(k)s—which average less than $20,000.
  5. For those in the bottom 60%, premature deaths are up by about 20% since 2000. The biggest contributors to that change are an increase in deaths by drugs/poisoning (up two times since 2000) and an increase in suicides (up over 50% since 2000).
  6. The top 40% spend four times more on education than the bottom 60%.
  7. The average household income for main income earners without a college degree is half that of the average college graduate.
  8. Since 1980, divorce rates have more than doubled among middle-aged whites without college degrees, from 11% to 23%.
  9. The number of prime-age white men without college degrees not in the labor force has increased from 7% to 15% since 1980.  Full Story

What should you do?

Sentiment indicates the masses are not bullish so this market is not ready to crash. Instead of panicking make a list of stocks you would like to own and when the market’s pullback, buy these quality stocks at a huge discount.

Market Sentiment Supports Higher Stock market prices

 

Originally posted 2017-12-06 15:49:39.

Religious right sticks by Trump as political heat rises

Religious right sticks by Trump as political heat rises

Religious right sticks by Trump as political heat rises: As the threat of impeachment looms, President Donald Trump is digging in and taking solace in the base that helped him get elected: conservative evangelical Christians who laud his commitment to enacting their agenda.

Prominent evangelicals who have proven Trump’s most stalwart allies are staying in his corner for the impeachment fight, even as some push back against his withdrawal of U.S. troops from northern Syria — a move that imperils scores of Kurdish Muslims and Christians in the region.

Although Trump’s Syria pullback is alarming conservative Christians whose support he needs to win reelection, their rallying against his impeachment indicates a bond that appears strong enough to withstand the current foreign policy rift as 2020 balloting nears. Full Story

NTSB: Firm tied to collapsed Miami bridge wasn’t qualified

MIAMI (AP) — The firm that reviewed the design of a Miami university bridge that collapsed and killed six people last year was mistakenly listed in a Florida state report as qualified for that type of project even when it wasn’t, federal documents show.

The National Transportation Safety Board released nearly 6,300 pages of reports Tuesday examining the role of each contractor in the construction of the pedestrian bridge at Florida International University that collapsed March 15, 2018 onto eight cars.

NTSB says the Florida Department of Transportation listed the company Louis Berger Group, Inc. on a website-generated report as prequalified to evaluate the construction of a complex concrete bridge. FDOT told investigators it was a “technical error” on its website, as the company was not actually allowed to review that project.

In emails between FDOT representatives and an NTSB investigator, the state’s transportation department said firms involved in the project should not have simply relied on the website as proof of Louis Berger’s credentials, and should have done their own due diligence, such as seeing an actual letter of qualification from the state. Full Story

Originally posted 2019-10-11 16:47:23.

Brexit Boris Johnson Prime Minister

Brexit Boris Johnson Prime Minister

Brexit Boris Johnson Prime Minister: EU countries have agreed to “intensify” Brexit talks with the UK over the next few days.

The development comes after a meeting in Brussels between Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay and EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier, described by both sides as “constructive”.

But UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said there was “a way to go” before a deal could be reached.

The UK is due to leave the EU at 23:00 GMT on 31 October.

A European leaders’ summit next week is seen as the last chance to agree a deal before that deadline.

Mr Johnson put forward revised proposals for a deal last week, designed to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland after Brexit.

Speaking on Friday, he said there was not “a done deal”, adding: “The best thing we can do now is let our negotiators get on with it.”
In a statement, the European Commission said: “The EU and the UK have agreed to intensify discussions over the coming days.”

BBC Brussels correspondent Adam Fleming said that, although there would be a “measure of confidentiality”, EU states would still be briefed on any developments.

In Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron was asked if there was hope of a deal, replying: “Let’s wait for the next few hours.”

Meanwhile, the pound rose to a three-month high against other major currencies, amid increased investor optimism over an agreement. Full Story

Nobel Peace Prize: Ethiopia PM Abiy Ahmed wins

The 2019 Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed who made peace last year with bitter foe Eritrea.

He was awarded the prize for his efforts to “achieve peace and international cooperation”.

Mr Abiy’s peace deal with Eritrea ended a 20-year military stalemate following their 1998-2000 border war.

He was named as the winner of the 100th Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo, where he will receive the award in December. Full Story

 

Other articles of interest

Stock Market Crash Stories Experts Push Equate to Nonsense

Most Hated Stock Market Bull can’t be stopped by weak economy

Permabear – A Special Kind Of A Stupid One

Technology Driven Deflation Will Kill The Inflation Monster

Nothing about 1987 stock market crash anniversary

Nickel Stocks Has Put In A long Term Bottom

AMD vs Intel

BitCoin VS Precious Metals

Originally posted 2019-10-11 16:29:41.

Permabear – A Special Kind Of A Stupid One

Permabear - A Special Kind Of A Stupid One

Being a Permabear is a recipe for disaster

It takes a special kind of stupid to be a Permabear; the one that even a thousand hard slaps will not alter. Perma-Bears have a death wish; they are begging to be taken to the cleaners for nothing else can explain this short-sighted way of thinking. A simple examination of any long term chart will prove once and for all that being a Permabear is never going to pay off.  There is not one long term chart that can prove that taking a bearish stance, in the long run, has ever paid off.

Whatever trend line you use, the 1st or the second one, the above 100-year chart of the Dow clearly proves that  Permabears are in the wrong when it comes to investing.

The solution is simple

Focus on the simple factors, for that is what helps determine the trend; factors such as mass sentiment, and extreme patterns (technical analysis) on the charts.  The news is not an essential factor; in fact, toilet paper has more relevance than news; at least it serves a noble function; one cannot say the same of news.

Anyone that advocates giving into fear should be thrown head first out of the front door(figuratively speaking that is) and never allowed back into your house or mind; fear never pays off; only the vendors of fear will make a handsome buck, the buyers will lose their pants, their shirts and their knickers too.

Marc Faber is a classic example of A PermaBear that is full of rubbish

This dude has made prediction after prediction calling for the mother of all crashes since the inception of this bull (2009) but the only thing  that has crashed so far are his predictions of a crash.  He would probably make a very good science fiction writer, for he seems to spend a lot of time concocting scenarios that have a very low probability of coming to pass.

Here he states that we are going to experience a great recession in 2018

Turns out once again the only recession was in his predictions, which for now, are the only thing that has been in a bear market. Hence if you are a Permabear on his ability to predict market direction it could actually pay off.

Then he goes on to state the party is going to end in 2018

Random Musings on being a Permabear

First of all, we hope that the majority of our subscribers are starting to perceive that succumbing to Fear is a dangerous strategy to adopt.  Life and investing should not be stressful; stress is something that every Tactical Investor should abhor.  Moreover, remember, stress comes down to perceptions; alter the perception and one can shift from being stressed to being serene.

Experts love to push the argument that investing is hard and that it takes forever to master this art. Remember that investing is an art, not a science and art is meant to be enjoyed.  So are the masses starting to jump on the bandwagon after this strong turn around; the obvious answer would be yes. The not so obvious answer would be no Continue reading. Turns out at least in the first half of 2019, the not so obvious answer would be the right choice. The masses are still nervous and until they start to dance on the streets, every strong correction should be viewed through a bullish lens.

Conclusion

This bull market is unlike any other; before 2009, one could have relied on extensive technical studies to more or less call the top of a market give or take a few months; after 2009, the game plan changed and 99% of these traders/experts failed to factor this into the equation. Technical analysis as a standalone tool would not work as well as did before 2009 and in many cases would lead to a faulty conclusion.  Long story short, there are still too many people pessimistic (experts, your average Joes and everything in between) and until they start to embrace this market, most pullbacks ranging from mild to wild will falsely be mistaken for the big one.

The results speak for themselves; the majority of our holdings were in the red during the pullback, but now they are in the black, proving that one should buy when there is blood flowing in the streets. It is a catchy and easy phrase to spit out but very hard to implement, because when push comes to shove, the masses will opt for being shoved.

Courtesy of Tactical Investor

 

Random views on Permabear

Another warning light is blinking on the dashboard of the US economy. This time it is the inflation-tied Consumer Price Index (CPI) which has the bears scurrying for their bomb shelters. David Rosenberg, a so-called perma-bear, was filling Twitter feeds with his unique brand of doom and gloom for the Dow Jones and wider US stock market.

GLUSKIN SHEFF ECONOMIST: CPI DATA PORTENDS RECESSION

David Rosenberg

Today’s CPI did miss targets against an expectation of a 0.2% increase relative to the 0.1% reading. The Dow Jones is easing gently off its highs today as well, having lost 53.29 points as of the time of writing.

In isolation, that’s a snoozefest, but Mr. Rosenberg did note something particularly interesting about the data as a predictor of recession. Apparently, he is using price pressure as a sort of alternative yield curve.

BOND-YIELD INVERSION: A STRONG INDICATOR OF RECESSION
Given that interest rates are always somewhat interconnected with inflation due to the Fed’s approach to monetary policy, this is not particularly ground-breaking. It is interesting, though, particularly with the bond market teetering on the brink of inversion. Full Story

A prominent Wall Street permabear says the stock market is ‘stoned on free money’ and it could ‘prove fatal’

One prominent strategist says the market is high literally and figuratively. Albert Edwards, global strategist at Société Générale, cautioned on Thursday that stock markets were becoming “stoned on free money,” leaving them “detached from reality.” It’s a condition that the strategist says could “prove fatal,” in the end.

U.S. equity benchmarks — and those across the globe — have roared back from a late-2018 selloff that culminated in one of the worst December returns in years, but Edwards says, in a Thursday note, that those gains have been largely aided by central banks that are willing to “inject another dose of euphoria into its market patch.”

Indeed, since a Dec. 24 low last year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.70% and the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.50% have both advanced by about 20%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.22% has returned about 23%, thus far, as of trading midday Thursday, according to FactSet data.

Easing trade-war tensions between the U.S. and China have helped stocks rebound, but a policy pivot by the Federal Reserve in January arguably delivered the most substantial shift in investor sentiment over recent weeks.

The Fed, headed by Chairman Jerome Powell, said it would be more patient in assessing future rate moves, and minutes of the January gathering released on Wednesday indicated that its efforts to reduce a $4 trillion asset portfolio could conclude as early as the end of 2019. Full Story

 

Permabear Sentiment Index

Yesterday, I have created a download item that creates an index called the Roubini Sentiment Indicator. The same guys who created this indicator also created another one called the Permabear sentiment index. Permabear refers to people who are always pessimistic and negative about the future direction of the economy and markets. The Permabear sentiment index is built using aggregate keyword volume data from Google Trends. The index is the result of the sum of four Google Trends popularity indices; the keywords used to create these indices are: Roubini, Peter Schiff, Marc Faber and Nassim Taleb.

The item will login in your Google account, load Google trends and create a Google Trends popularity index for each permabear. It will then download the data, parse it, calculate the sum of each permabear volume data and then save the result in ticker symbol: ^GOOGLE_TRENDS_PERMABEAR. As with the Roubini Sentiment Indicator, you must set the email and password fields of this download item to your Google email and password (Select the item, click on Update, click on the “2 Field(s)” button).

The author of the Permabear Sentiment Index claims that the Permabear Sentiment Index can make 3.5% over a short period of 3 weeks compared to the 1.6% yield of the Roubini Sentiment Indicator over the same period. The author gives one reason behind the good performance of this index. Full Story

Originally posted 2019-04-09 14:36:20.