Turkey Syria: Turkish forces are stepping up air strikes and a ground offensive, as their incursion into Kurdish-held areas of northern Syria enters a second day.
Turkey’s military said it had seized designated targets. There are reports of heavy fighting in the central border region, and seven civilian deaths.
Tens of thousands of people are reported to be leaving their homes.
The assault on Kurdish-led forces, key US allies, follows US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw US troops.
Turkey says it wants to create a “safe zone” on the border for many of the Syrian refugees on its territory.
On Thursday President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to send the refugees to Europe instead if it characterised the Turkish offensive as an occupation.
Many in the US, including some of Mr Trump’s Republican allies, saw the withdrawal of troops as effectively giving a green light for the Turkish offensive, although Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday denied that was the case.
Could Turkish offensive unleash IS threat?
But Mr Trump told a news conference the Turks and Kurds had “been fighting each other for centuries”, and said that Kurdish fighters “didn’t help us in the Second World War, they didn’t help us with [the D-Day landings in] Normandy”.
The United Nations Security Council is due to discuss the offensive on Thursday at the request of its current five EU members – the UK, France, Germany, Belgium and Poland. Full Story
Will ‘Super Saturday’ be a decisive Brexit moment?
Not the EU summit, not the prime minister’s deadline, but what might be a decisive day in the immediate aftermath, already being joked about as Super Saturday.
As I wrote a couple of weeks ago, in the unlikely event that there is a deal with the EU (progress check, still unlikely but not completely impossible) then the 19 October had been pencilled in as the day when Parliament would be asked to approve the arrangement the prime minister had brokered. Full Story
How to holyday like the Soviet elite?
The Russian RivieraBefore the fall of the USSR, Tskaltubo, a small resort town in west-central Georgia, was one of the most popular holiday destinations among Soviet elites, who flocked here to visit the grand sanatoriums with their spas and restorative waters.
When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, however, vacationers stopped arriving, the sanatoriums shut down and the impressive buildings fell into disrepair. For years, the town survived on a trickle of visitors coming to explore the ruins. Today Tskaltubo is finally experiencing a renaissance: as tourism surges in Georgia, investors are buying the ruins and renovating these amazing spaces, allowing visitors to once again relax like Russian royalty. Full Story
Stubbornness does have its helpful features. You always know what you’re going to be thinking tomorrow.
Expert after expert is busy proclaiming that the world is about to come to grinding halt again.
They never seem to let up on pushing this sewage onto the unsuspecting masses. This is a clear example of insanity in action; mouthing the same thing over and over again with the desperate hope that this time the outcome will be different. The outcome will not be different this time, at least not yet. These guys should focus on writing fiction for reality seems to elude them completely. For years we have stated (and rightly so) that until the sentiment changes, this market will continue to soar higher and higher.
Here is a small sample of the flood of articles that were pushed out this month. If one simply glances through them, one would almost be compelled to think that the writers shared the same notes. There is almost no originality in these articles. The theme is the same, just because it’s October the focus is on the disaster aspect of the 1987 crash. Almost no one mentions that it proved to be a monumental buying opportunity. The focus is oh the financial world came to a grinding halt. Only it did not, the only that came to a halt was the rubbish the predecessors of today’s experts were uttering back in 1987. This reinforces the view that most financial writers have chosen the wrong profession One word sums all this nonsense “Rubbish.”
Could the 1987 stock market crash happen again? – Reuters
Black Monday anniversary: How the 2017 stock market compares with 1987 – Market Watch
Black Monday: 30 years after 1987 stock market crash… Wall Street raises fears of REPEAT- express.co.uk
Thursday marks 30th anniversary of the Black Monday stock market crash – courier-journal
Buy Climax at 30th Anniversary of 1987 Stock Market Crash – Money Show
The Crash of ’87, From the Wall Street Players Who Lived It – Bloomberg
Black Monday: Can a 1987-style stock market crash happen again? – USA Today
So are we stating that the stock market will never crash?
No that is not what we are stating. The market will crash, but for the astute investor, “crash” is the wrong word to use. A strong correction is more likely as most astute investors got into this market a long time ago. It is the crowd that will eventually decide to embrace close to the top that will experience this crash that the experts have been hyping about for years.
This market will experience one strong correction before it crashes, but the moment the Dow sheds 1000 points or more these experts will crawl from the rocks they were hiding under and start screaming bloody murder. To which our response is, please scream as loud as you can; for it will push the markets lower creating a better buying opportunity for us. This is exactly what we said in Aug of 2015 before Trump won and countless times before and after that.
This market is extremely overbought so a pullback ranging from 1500-3000 points should surprise no one and it certainly should not be construed as a crash but viewed as market releasing a well-deserved dose of steam. To state otherwise, would simply be disingenuous, which seems to be the only real qualification these so-called experts posses
Market Sentiment indicates that the crowd is far from Ecstatic
The Bullish sentiment has risen somewhat, and the crowd is not as anxious as it was at the beginning of this month or last month, but until the readings indicate this crowd is euphoric, a crash is unlikely. Many people state that most people don’t have money to invest in the markets. We beg to differ; look at whats going on in the Bitcoin market, now that is a market showing some signs of Euphoria; the stock market in comparison is at the lukewarm stage.
Buy The Fear & Sell The Noise
The only thing that is going to crash and has been crashing since 2008 is the egos of these “know it all” experts. If any of them had even listened to themselves half of the time; they would have bankrupted themselves several times over. The fact that they are still around chiming the same rubbish is clear proof that they don’t believe a word they are putting to print and therefore neither should you.
Why Not Try Something New For A Change
Make a list of stocks you would love to own at a discount. When the market lets out a nice dose of steam, instead of fleeing for the hills, you can purchase top quality stocks for a discount
The sheer volume of these articles validates our view that the masses are from bullish and a crash is unlikely. Until the sentiment or the trend changes, all strong corrections should be viewed through a bullish lens.
Obstinacy is the result of the will forcing itself into the place of the intellect.
Nickel: Is This The Beginning of A new Bull Market
If you look at a shorter-term chart 1-3 years, it looks like the main move is underway already. However, looking at a ten-year chart, we can see that Nickel is at an important junction. It needs to close above 1100 on a monthly basis; failure to achieve this could push it back down to the 820-855 ranges over rather quickly. If one is looking for a solid confirmation, then a monthly close over 1200 should do it; this would set the pace for a test of the 1500 ranges with a possibility of trading to 1800.
We looked at several large producers of nickel, and all their charts illustrated that the stocks were consolidating, which suggests that Nickel is likely to pullback before trending higher unless the metal is going to diverge and trend in the opposite direction.
Let’s take a look at some Nickel Producers
VALE, which is the world’s second-largest producer of Nickel, appears to be consolidating while nickel prices trend higher and the same appears to be true of NILSY (Norilsk Mines). What could be taking place here is that the stocks are pulling back and building energy for the next phase upwards.
On the monthly chart of VALE, we can see that the stock is holding up quite well, while our indicators are letting out some steam. If one were willing to take some risk and wanted to act before our indicators moved into the oversold range capital could be deployed in the 9 to 10 dollar ranges.
The pattern is quite interesting here; this is one of the few stocks in the sector that has not experienced a nice upward move. The other stocks are now consolidating building up steam for the next leg up, however, this chap is still trading in the extremely oversold ranges and technically could mount a rally at any moment. However, note that this is a speculative play.
This company also trades in London under symbol GLEN (LSX: GLEN), and it is currently the world’s 4th largest nickel producer. Risk-takers could deploy some capital in the 3.25-3.30 ranges and another lot deployed if it drops down to the 2.90-3.00 ranges. We would hold onto the third and deploy it after one of our customer indicators generates a buy signal.
Courtesy of Tactical Investor
Random views on Nickel Stocks
Use of nickel has been traced as far back as 3,500 BC. In more recent times nickel has been used in coins (a nickel), but is best known for its use in stainless steel driven mostly by Chinese construction. With the current negative sentiment due to the US-China trade war and some mild slowdown in China, nickel prices have fallen to a low level, as have the nickel miners. Provided we don’t head into a significant China or global slowdown, any resolution in the trade war with China should lead to some recovery in nickel prices and the nickel miner’s stock prices.Class 1 nickel demand forecast to increase 17 fold from 2017 to 2025 due to the EV boomAccording to McKinsey research if annual electric vehicle (EV) production reaches 31 million vehicles by 2025 as expected then demand for high-purity class 1 nickel is likely to increase significantly from 33 Kt in 2017 to 570 Kt in 2025. Class 1 nickel is the “high purity” nickel that is used in electric vehicle lithium ion batteries. The stainless steel industry uses both class 1 and class 2 nickel (lower purity) and is the main driver of overall nickel demand. Full Story
The share price of nickel mining stocks rose significantly in the Philippine Stock Exchange last week. This was driven by the sharp increase in the price of nickel traded in the London Metal Exchange (LME). The price of nickel is currently $14,860 per ton, up 17 percent compared to its end-June level and up 39 percent compared to its end 2018 level. This is despite the slowing global economic growth, which is pulling down the price of most commodities.
The higher price of nickel in LME is largely due to the steep drop in inventory levels. From 200,000 metric tons during the start of the year, LME’s inventory level fell to 160,000 MT as of end-June and is now down to 149,000 MT. This is equivalent to less than two months’ worth of supply and indicates a potential shortage, according to Jervois Mining executive general manager Michael Rodriguez, as reported by SmallCaps.com.
A reason for the decline in nickel inventory is growing demand for lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles. Note that various groups are projecting demand for electric vehicles to increase by a compounded annual growth rate of more than 20 percent in the next five to 10 years as governments globally are encouraging the adoption of electric vehicles due to environmental reasons. Consequently, demand for nickel used for electric vehicle batteries is also increasing and is expected to account for more than 50 percent of total nickel demand by 2030. Full Story
2016 was lithium’s year, 2017 was cobalt’s year, and 2018-2020 are likely to be nickel’s years as nickel inventories decline and nickel prices finally start to rise. Strong Chinese and global stainless steel demand and ever increasing demand from electric vehicles [EVs] using higher nickel content batteries NMC (8:1:1).
In this article the first 2 stocks are more solid and safe diversified nickel investments (with exposure to other metals) that will do ok even if the nickel boom is delayed until 2020. The last 3 stocks are nickel-cobalt optionality plays that can give out-sized returns should the nickel price continue to improve as I expect. They will also be helped significantly by strong cobalt prices. In all cases investors will need some patience with a 5 year plus investment time frame.
Nickel price and inventory
Nickel is only just recovering now from a severe bear market from 2012 to early 2016 (low of just below US$4/lb), with the price moving up in 2017 and reaching USD 6.10/lb by late January 2018. Inventory is finally slowly declining and price is recovering. Whilst some Philippine supply is expected to come back, the demand picture is strengthening as global economic growth picks up and the mass market EV boom begins.
In 2017 nickel prices rose 27.51% on the back of solid Chinese stainless steel demand. I expect something similar each year from now until 2020, as demand is steadily boosted from the EV boom. Full Story
Tax Returns Donald Trump: A judge has ordered US President Donald Trump to hand over eight years of his tax returns to a New York state criminal investigation.
The judge rejected arguments by the president’s lawyers that total immunity protects him while in office.
Mr Trump is the only presidential candidate since the 1960s apart from Gerald Ford not to release tax returns.
The ruling helps an investigation into hush money paid to two women who claim they had affairs with Mr Trump.
In his 75-page decision on Monday, Judge Victor Marrero said he could not allow a “categorical and limitless assertion of presidential immunity from judicial process”.
“The only thing truly absolute about presidential immunity from criminal process is the Constitution’s silence about the existence and contours of such an exemption,” he wrote.
Judge Marrero concluded that the president’s argument, at its core, was “repugnant to the nation’s governmental structure and constitutional values”.
Mr Trump’s lawyers immediately filed an emergency appeal with a higher court.
The president tweeted about the ruling on Monday, claiming that Democrats were “pushing local New York City and State Democrat prosecutors to go get President Trump”.
The Radical Left Democrats have failed on all fronts, so now they are pushing local New York City and State Democrat prosecutors to go get President Trump. A thing like this has never happened to any President before. Not even close!
What’s the background?
The investigation concerns hush money payments made by Mr Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen to two women – adult film star Stormy Daniels and former Playboy model Karen McDougal – who allege affairs with Mr Trump, which he denies. Full Story
Turkey-Syria border: Kurds bitter as US troops withdraw
US troops have begun withdrawing from positions in northern Syria, paving the way for a Turkish operation against Kurdish fighters in the border area.
Kurdish-led forces have until now been a key US ally in Syria, where they helped defeat the Islamic State group, but Turkey regards them as terrorists.
The main Kurdish-led group called the surprise US move a “stab in the back”. Full Story
Allyson Felix: World Athletics Championships record-breaker on life-changing year
Becoming the most successful athlete in World Championships history – as she did in Doha – would once have been all-consuming for Allyson Felix. The past 12 months have changed her beyond measure.
Having a baby has also given birth to the activist hidden inside her. Felix is no longer a willing participant in the “culture of silence” around maternity rights in elite athletics. She has found her voice. Full Story
“INTC has lost the leadership in process technology, its key differentiation, and it is losing momentum,” he wrote in a research report published Tuesday. “We continue to be more pessimistic about INTC gross margins as its competitive position is eroding and yields for 10nm are likely to depress gross margin in 2H:19.” https://bit.ly/2H7DX7d
INTC is still running into an issue when it comes to 10nm wafer technology, so how is it going to deal with TSM and AMD that are gearing up to sell 7nm chips. Intel states that it will be ready to sell 10nm chips in 2020, while AMD is gearing up to sell 7nm chips in bulk next year. In the short term, the picture does not appear to be positive for Intel.
Andy Grove was right when he stated the following “Only the Paranoid Survive” It appears those at the helm of Intel have allowed a culture of arrogance to mushroom. To the early bird comes the worm, to the late bird the bullet.
Google the behemoth joins the AMD vs Intel Foray
The relationship between Google and AMD could strengthen further. Google has already chosen them to supply GPUs for its stadia gaming service. Intel was supposed to provide the chips, but a further chip delay could push Google to build upon this relationship with AMD. Many analysts also feel that Google could embrace the EPC 2 “Rome” processors that are based on the Zen 2 microarchitecture. Google has millions of servers so this could lead to a nice boost in profits for AMD. Focus on the word “could” and do not change it for the word “will”; this is the trick analysts employ to con the masses into accepting a false narrative.
What sets these chips apart from Intel’s chips? They incorporate 7nm technology, and each chip can have up to eight smaller 7nm chips inside them, allowing a single EPYC 2 processor to have 64 cores and they will be able to execute 128 threads. The entire data-centre processing industry is paying close attention to these chips, and if a big player like Google embraces them, the odds are relatively high that a lot of other players will follow suit. No one wants to be left behind especially with AI-based technology gaining traction at a rapid pace.
Patrick Kennedy at ServeTheHome, a publication focused on high-performance computing, and RetiredEngineer on Twitter have both concluded that two Rome CPUs could support 160 PCIe 4.0 lanes. Kennedy even expects there will be an additional PCIe lane per CPU (meaning 129 in a single socket), bringing the total number of lanes in a dual-socket server up to 162, but with the caveat that this additional lane per socket could only be used for the baseboard management controller (or BMC), a vital component of server motherboards… If @RetiredEngineer and ServeTheHome did their math correctly, then Intel has even more serious competition than AMD has let on.
Projections are now being made that AMD could capture 10% of the server market share by 2020, this in our opinion could be a conservative estimate; when the rats start to abandon ship, and they usually stampede instead of slowly crawling out.
TSM appears to be cementing its lead over Intel
TSM said that its 5nm process is already in risk production mode. The company claimed it would offer customers a new level of both performance and power optimisation. Compared to TSMC’s 7nm process, the new process generation promises 1.8 times the logic density, 15% speed gain on an Arm Cortex-A72 core, as well as improved SRAM and analogue area reduction.
The 5nm process generation will be TSMC’s second to use extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, which simplifies the manufacturing process. According to TSMC, the EUV lithography also offers excellent yield learning, allowing the 5nm process to achieve a level of maturity faster than previous TSMC process nodes at the same development stage. The new 5nm process design infrastructure is now available for customers to download fromTSMC Online.
TSM does not directly compete with INTC, but this debatable as they are leaving INTC behind when it comes to wafer production, but INTC competitors like AMD can use these developments to leapfrog ahead of INTC even further in the chip design arena. The ball is now in AMD’s court, and if they execute, correctly it could possibly be a game changer for this underdog.
Furthermore, it opens the door for even more competition as new companies can focus exclusively on creating better chips without having to build the facilities to manufacture the wafers. This is what scalability is all about. INTC is now losing on two fronts; its wafer technology is out-dated as well as its chip technology.
Wei also noted that TSMC’s 7nm chip client portfolio broadening. Originally focused on smartphone applications the 7nm node is now being targeted for chip designs for applications such as HPC and automotive. “Customer tape-outs activities at N7 continue to be strong despite the cautious macro outlook,” Wei said.
At the same time, TSMC executives discussed the introduction of N7+, a second generation of the 7nm production process that makes use of EUV lithography. “Our N7+ yield rate is progressing well and comparable to N7. N7+ volume production is scheduled to begin in the second quarter this year. As I have stated before, we are working with several customers on N7+ to support their second and third wave product designs. https://bit.ly/2IVhkFd
The crowd follows those it believes to be the leader; if the perception of leadership is challenged the leader’s image suffers irreparable damage over the short to intermediate time frames. The former leader has to move fast to contain the damage, if not the damage is usually permanent.
Even minnows are now attempting to take on INTC:
Rene James, the former number two at Intel, currently heads a start-up called Ampere that is going after Intel’s dominant Server chip business. Her exact words “It’s a once-in-a-50-year situation,” but here’s the rub, it is using TSM to build those chips, and it has already produced data centre chips that have been selected by Lenovo and a few other server-based companies. This is probably the very start of a new megatrend; time will tell how fast this trend gathers traction.
While Amazon is using AMD’s chips, it is also designing its own chip called the Graviton, and it would never have managed this without TSM capabilities. AMZN is the largest cloud company in the world, so that’s another thorn for Intel; a price war is brewing which will further erode Intel’s margins as it struggles to hold onto market share. Therefore it is possible that INTC could lose up 20% of its current market share to its competitors and possibly more if the masses think nothing is being done to address its shortfalls. There is still time for Intel to remedy the situation (taking a long term view), but it needs to start acting decisively soon.
Can we state with certainty that AMD and TSM have won the battle?
If you start off with the wrong premise no matter how hard you try the answer will be wrong. AMD does not have its own Fabs, which means its at the mercy of TSM. TSM could start to charge AMD whatever it wants (in theory), and this would affect AMD’s bottom line. In the end, the relationship between AMD and TSM is one in which TSM holds all the crucial cards for now; designing great chips means nothing if you do not control the means of production.
The real story is the battle between TSM and Intel and in that arena, TSM is leading for now, and if the US government does not start to support essential players as is the case in China, then this could mark a turning point. While TSM is a Taiwanese company, China has its hands in that pie too, and you will see why as we the article below addresses this issue.
TSM vs INTC Appears To Be The Real Issue
If TSM remains the dominant player, then sooner or later this technology is going to make its way to China. China’s government supports key industries, semiconductor’s, 5G, etc. and this is what is enabling them to advance at such a rapid pace. Unless The US starts to take a similar stance, it is just a matter of time before China wins the 5g wars (which it appears to have won already as Huawei so far has the best 5g hardware on the market) and the semiconductor wars. China is already poaching talent from TSM and other Taiwanese chip based companies at a rapid clip.
Throughout this article, we used the word could, and might several times, we could have easily opted for the word “will” or something more forceful, but injecting emotions into the game plan is a sure fire way to guarantee a loss. Every situation should be treated in the same way; examine the data in a cool, calm and rational manner.
There is no absurdity so palpable but that it may be firmly planted in the human head if you only begin to inculcate it before the age of five, by constantly repeating it with an air of great solemnity. Arthur Schopenhauer
Gold bottomed in 2002, and it took nine years for its trade to a high of roughly $1900 (September 2011). Contrast that to Bitcoin, in less than 1/3rd of the amount of time it is showing gains of more than 11,000%. It took nine years for Gold to show gains of roughly 700% and Gold has given up a substantial portion of those gains.
We bailed out of Gold in 2011 for two reasons:
Gold was trading in the extremely overbought ranges, and the Gold Bug Camp could not contain their glee; they thought the sky was the limit. Instead, they found out that the Ground was a lot closer.
The masses were not embracing Gold, and they refused to treat or view it as a currency.
Only those from the hard money camp continued to believe that Gold was a currency, but sadly their numbers are dwindling with the passage of each day. The masses view Bitcoin as cool and secure; a feat Gold has struggled to achieve and is not likely to achieve in the foreseeable future. Whether this is true or not, hardly matters for when it comes to investing, perceptions are all that matter.
Does this mean the precious metals sector is dead?
Well, that depends on what one means by dead. Gold has performed abysmally since (it topped out) 2011. The money supply soared, and Gold tanked, not exactly a good sign. In doing the opposite of what was expected from it, Gold cemented the view that it was an ancient relic that has no place in today’s monetary system. We are speaking in terms of Mass Perception. What we think, matters not; we follow trends, and we don’t waste time trying to look at things from a personal vantage point. There are many reasons for Gold’s underperformance after 2011; one of them was the “velocity of the money supply” which all but stalled after 2011. However, the masses don’t waste time on details like this. They look for simple cause and effect answers. Money supply soared, Gold did nothing, and hence Gold is a waste of time. A bit simplistic but that’s the mass mindset for you. However, looking forward some factors could limit Gold’s lustre
Demand for Gold continues to drop
India’s gold consumption is likely to drop to its lowest in eight years in 2017, hit by government moves to make bullion trading more transparent and by faltering demand from some rural areas, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Thursday.
Evidence of weaker appetite in a country where gold is used in everything from investment to wedding gifts could drag on global prices that have been hovering near their highest in three weeks. India is the word’s No 2 consumer of gold behind China.Full Story
The Dollar appears to be putting in a base
The dollar topped in early 2017 and what did Gold do? Absolutely nothing; instead of surging to new highs it could not even trade past its July 2016 highs. The dollar, in contrast, has been going through a well deserved period of consolidation after mounting a stunning rally that started in 2011. It tested support and held, and as long as it does not close below 90 on a monthly basis, the outlook will remain bullish. Consequently, a monthly close above 94.50 will open the possibility for a test of the old highs.
The dollar is getting ready to mount a rally, demand for Gold is declining, and Gold has been unable to trade past $1350 even in the face of a weaker dollar. Then we have the Bitcoin market, which the masses (especially millennia’s) find to be a lot more exciting and rewarding than Gold. All these factors don’t bode well for Gold. It appears that Gold is likely to test the 1000 ranges unless it decides to diverge and trend upwards in tandem with the dollar. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is now in the feeding frenzy stage, so this market is ripe for a correction. However, the upward move is still not over. After a hard correction, Bitcoin is likely to resume its upward trend.
Gold will probably never experience a move akin to that of Bitcoin, but that does not mean it won’t make for a good investment one day. For now, the trend is neutral; a weekly close below $1100 will darken the outlook for Gold, but a monthly close above $1350 will indicate that Gold is ready to trend higher.
Word to the wise
Never fall in love with any investment. In the end, it’s the trend that you should pay attention to, for no sector can trend upwards forever. The odds of the Dow trading to 29,000 are far better than of Gold trading to $1900.
US Dollar Finally Hit Bottom and Gold could be heading lower
Gold USD: The theme from the Gold bug camp for so long has been; Gold is going to soar to the moon. What many forget is that these fools have been singing this same song for decades. Instead of soaring to the moon, Gold has been licking the dust for almost 7 years. It topped off in 2011 and since then the action has all down with a few false breakouts that the misguided Gold bugs mistook for the beginning of a new bull run.
We are not against Gold or the precious metals sectors; we actually favour the hard money doctrine, but the problem is that view is not shared by the majority. Mark Dice illustrated that most individuals would take a candy bar over a 10oz bar of Silver.
Now many would respond by saying these people are stupid, etc. That’s not the point, the point is that most people no longer view Gold as currency; instead, they view it as some ancient relic.
Is the Dollar getting ready to Rally?
The bigger issue is that the Dollar appears to be putting in a base. The dollar has mounted a very strong rally since it bottomed out in 2011, so the current consolidation is to be expected. The dollar is holding firmly at 90; a zone of strong support. As long as the dollar does not close below 90 on a monthly basis the outlook will remain bullish. With the passage of the Trump’s Tax package, the outlook for the dollar and the stock market has brightened significantly pushing Gold even deeper into the shadows. If the Dollar can close above 94.50 on a monthly basis, the groundwork will be laid for a test of the old highs.
Gold, on the other hand, looks like it’s going nowhere
The dollar topped in early 2017 and did the Gold market respond positively to this event. The reaction was muted at best. Instead of surging to new highs it could not even trade past its July 2016 highs. To make matters worse, gold put in a lower high than it did in July of 2016, even though the dollar traded below its 2016 lows.
Other bearish factors
Instead of putting in a series of higher lows, Gold has been putting in a series of low highs since 2013.
It has not managed to trade above $1350 for more than a brief period. This illustrates that demand is not robust and the market is not pricing in all the negative news. Until Gold can trade above $1350 on a monthly basis, the outlook will remain Neutral to bearish.
If the US Dollar Finally Hit Bottom, then it should be testing its old highs within 12-15 months
The dollar is oversold and the pattern is still bullish. It has gone through an extensive consolidation phase and it is now trading in the oversold ranges. A monthly close above 94.50 will solidify the longer-term outlook and indicate that the dollar is ready to test and possible challenge it’s all-time highs.
Bull and bear market: Before we get into any commentary take a look at the images and charts below. Remember that the best time to buy from a long term perspective is when blood is flowing freely in the streets and blood is flowing now. Finally, keep in mind that we have always advocated that crashes are nothing but long term buying opportunities. Pull up a long term chart and you will be forced to arrive at the same conclusion.The Big player’s game strategy is to get individuals to focus on words such as bear market, crash, and end of the world, etc; in doing so, the crowd focuses on the tree and forgets the forest.
Source: Tactical Investor
The anxiety gauge has red-lined, and the gauge is in unchartered territory; it has set an all-time new high.
Source: Tactical Investor
Bearish sentiment is approaching the seven-year high level. Fear and hysteria are trading at off the chart levels. Mass psychology states that stock markets never crash when the masses are in a state of panic. Bull markets emerge when the masses panic, so forgot about the what happens if the stock market crashes scenario? If it does crash, run out and buy all the top companies; from a long term perspective stock market crashes are fantastic buying opportunities.
If things were declining retail sales would not be improving. Holiday season retail sales are set to exceed the $ one trillion mark for the first time.
Random Views on Stock Market Bull and Bear 2019
Big-money investors see the bull market ending in 2019
Institutional investors believe the bull market in stocks will come to an end over the next 12 months.
They also expect the next financial crisis to come in one to five years, according to a Natixis survey.
The results come as market tumult has left stocks barely positive for 2019.
The longest bull market run in history is coming to an end in 2019, according to the pros who handle Wall Street’s big-money clientele.
A survey of institutional investors show that 65 percent see a change coming, with the biggest threats being geopolitical tensions and rising interest rates, according to Natixis, which surveyed 500 managers of pension funds, endowments, foundations and the like. Respondents also included sovereign wealth funds and insurance funds.
In addition to seeing the bull market stopping, they also anticipate the next financial crisis coming in one to five years.
Despite the pessimism over where the market is heading, the collective portfolio allocation to stocks is expected to dip only slightly — from 38 percent to 36 percent. But 41 percent of those surveyed said they will be reducing allocation to U.S. equities.
Allocations are expected to increase slightly for bonds, from 37 percent to 38 percent, and cash, from 5 percent to 6 percent.
“The market is catching up to what they’ve been thinking about. I think they’ve been positioned for this for quite a while,” he said. “For the most part they’re staying put, except U.S. equities.” Full Story
Opinion: A bear market and 6 other forecasts for 2019
A new year is usually a time for fresh starts and empty promises. But investors begin 2019 in a state of high anxiety.
That’s because despite a post-Christmas rally, stocks still had their worst December since 1931 and their worst year since 2008 (both ominous comparisons). By Christmas Eve, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.00% was within 0.2 percentage points of a 20% bear-market decline, before a Santa rally kicked in.
So are we in a bear market? Is recession around the corner? And how will Democratic control of the House of Representatives and the looming 2020 presidential election affect markets this year? Here’s my take.
1. A trade deal with China will boost markets and investors’ confidence. President Trump already has hinted (or tweeted) that trade talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping are making “big progress.” Both men really need a deal—Xi, because of the slowing Chinese economy, and Trump, because of plunging stock prices.
I expect they will cut a cosmetic deal in which Xi makes some concessions, but ultimately Trump will cave on his major demands, as he did with North Korea (which still shows no sign of real denuclearization). But both will declare victory and that will be good enough for hardcore Trumpkins and for Wall Street, which just wants markets to go up.
So stocks will rally sharply… Full Story
Will 2019 be a Bear Market or Bull Market?
AK has been an analyst at long/short equity investment firms, global macro funds, and corporate economics departments. He co-founded Macro Ops and is the host of Fallible.
Is The 2019 Stock Market Crash Over? Or Will The Bear Market Continue?
In this video we’ll do a quick market review to see whether we’re headed higher from here in stocks or if the bear is still creeping behind the corner.
The market is battling through the major supply overhang (red zone) that I pointed out a few weeks ago. I’d expect a selloff from these levels over the next few weeks. This bounce is technically overextended (price is near the upper Bollinger Band) and one more good washout would really set the stage (both from a technical and sentiment point of view) for another major leg higher.
Of course, we don’t need to see a selloff. We could see persistent strength and have the market move higher from here. But, I believe it’s odds on we see a reversal before the market makes another major move.
The market has so far, though, given us a number of things to be optimistic about. Both credit and Cyclical vs Defensives have been confirming this rally; which is just the type of action we need to see in order for a significant bottom to be in place.
And various breadth indicators are showing extremely large buying pressure coming into the market. My longer-term breadth indicator is moving in the right direction. Full Story
The correction of 2008 was warranted as the masses were euphoric in terms of the housing sector; it took a turn for the worse when Lehman brothers were purposely thrown to the curb by the Fed. Regardless of this development, you can see that the markets were trading in the extremely overbought ranges and masses were euphoric.
The same sequence of events occurred during the dot.com bubble and the not too late Bitcoin bubble. If there were charts, we could demonstrate the exact setup going back all the way to the tulip bubble. The masses are not euphoric and the markets are not overbought; hence the current pullback most likely falls into the “opportunity” category.
The Stock Market is going to Crash; that’s the rubbish experts want you to believe
One jackass (oops we mean expert) after another, has been predicting that a Stock Market Crash is coming. The problem is that these brain surgeons have been making this argument for so long it almost sounds like the definition of insanity. Insanity boils down to doing the same thing over and over again and hoping for a new outcome. These predictions are so off the mark that they make a broken clock look fantastic which happens to be right once or twice a day depending on whether you follow military time or not.
Some Experts point out that Warren Buffet is betting on a Stock Market Crash
To us, this seems like the ramblings of an insane individual. Just because Warren Buffett is sitting on billions of cash does not mean he is waiting for the market to crash. He is probably waiting for a good deal; that’s all.
Some might point out that it’s the biggest hoard of cash the company has ever built up and that this indicates that Buffett is nervous. Being nervous does not equate to betting on a stock market crash. Buffett is a valuable player and he is looking for a deal, so correction not crash might be all he is waiting for.
Buffett Does not believe stocks are overpriced; hence he is not expecting a stock market crash
While Buffett agrees the market can go through a period of turbulence, he stated that “no one can tell you when these traumas occur.”
“American business—and consequently a basket of stocks—is virtually certain to be worth far more in the years ahead. Innovation, productivity gains, entrepreneurial spirit and an abundance of capital will see to that,” Buffett said.
Bottom Line Buffett would view these pullbacks that could range from mild to extreme as buying opportunities and so do we.
The Buffett Indicator of 2019 Is Predicting a Stock Market Crash theory is not valid based on Market Sentiment
This market is unlike any other market; it has moved from being the most hated bull market to the most insane bull market (fanaticism stock market crash) of all time. In such an environment technical analysis is technically trash and fundamentals are fundamentally flawed. In fact, for the most part, market technicians have no idea of what they are talking about; they figure that by studying someone else theory or drawing squiggly lines on some chart they can decipher the market.
We have dealt with at least 15 so-called expert technicians who claimed to have found the Holy Grail; in the end, their theory was full of holes and could not account for sudden and rapid trend changes. Technical’s do not drive the markets, and neither do fundamentals; emotions drive the market. Understand the emotion, and you can identify the trend. Identify the trend, and you can determine the primary direction of the market. If the trend is up, then you don’t need to worry about crashes or correction; the market will not crash when the primary trend is up. It will, however, experience corrections, all of which will prove to be buying opportunities until the trend changes.
Simple, prudent money management skills will protect your profits and reduce your losses. Fundamental analysis is even worse; at least technical analysis can be useful when combined with sentiment analysis. Fundamentals boil down to pouring over standard data, and you are usually looking at what happened and not what will happen. We will not spend more time on that topic as in our opinion fundamental analysis is in today’s markets is a total waste of time.
The NASDAQ achieved a very important milestone and does not support a Stock Market Crash Scenario
Experts almost always fall into the category of “all talk but no action.”
What many experts fail to understand is that a bull market starts only after the old high has been taken out. Until that occurs, it’s not a real bull market. In that sense, the NASDAQ bull has just started. For over 15 years the NASDAQ struggled to overcome this hurdle. Jack in the box is what comes to mind; so like a coiled spring, it is ready to trade a lot higher before it breaks down. The NASDAQ has already broken past the psychologically (contrarian investing) significant 6000 level, so the odds are fair to high that it should roughly double from its breakout point; a move to the 9000-10,000 ranges might appear insane now. Experts would have felt the same way if someone told them that the Dow would be trading past 21K after it dropped below 7,000 in 2009.
Don’t expect the upward journey to be smooth; the higher the Nasdaq trades, the more volatile the ride will be. In the interim, it would not surprise us if the Nasdaq eventually dropped down to the 5200-5400 ranges with a possible overshoot to 5,0000 before testing 6700.
The Crowd is Nervous Proving that Stock Market crash Mantra is Not Valid
Sentiment continues to paint a fascinating picture as it indicates that for the 1st time in decades the crowd is not driven by panic or euphoria.They are uncertain, and uncertainty is the 1st stage of fear, indicating that the markets are a very long way off from hitting the Euphoric zone.
Overall, looking at the situation from a mass psychology perspective what we stated in 2014, 2015 and 2016, continues to hold; this bull market could end up running a lot higher than the most ardent of bulls could ever envision. It has already caught some of the most ardent of bulls by surprise; some of them even turned negative this January.
“I have a little bit in my checking [account], a little bit in my savings,” Coomer, a grandma of three who still works 55 hours a week at the gas station, told CNNMoney. Coomer is part of over half of America that has $0 invested in the stock market, as research reports and surveys have found. One survey from Bankrate found that 54% of Americans have no money in the stock market.
That means no money in pension funds, 401(k) retirement plans, IRAs, mutual funds or ETFs. “For the majority of the people here, the stock market is something interesting to look at,” says Chuck Caudill, general manager of the local newspaper, The Beattyville Enterprise.
Therefore until the masses embrace the market, this bull will trend a lot higher as the only way the top players can bank their paper profits is to unload these shares onto the unsuspecting masses. Many would point out that the masses are broke. Banks and various lending clubs are already offering unsecured personal loans ranging from $2,000 all the way to $100,000. However, we expect the rates to drop even further but more importantly supportive documentation requirements will be dropped to a bare minimum. We will move back to the era of Liar Loans
Two factors invalidate the Buffett Indicator Is Predicting a Stock Market Crash Hypothesis
A back breaking correction needs at least two elements; the masses should be euphoric, and the market needs to be trading in the extremely overbought ranges. At the moment, the market satisfies only one of these conditions. A small wave of selling will propel the masses into the hysteria zone, which will create a mouth-watering opportunity. Markets don’t crash when the masses are in disarray; they crash when the crowd is jumping up with Joy. The experts will probably confuse the next correction for a crash, but what can one expect from individuals who have been on the wrong side of this Bull market since its inception.
Naysayers are trying to Con the Masses into Believing a Stock Market Crash is around the Corner
This Video Illustrates How the Crowd is manipulated: Fear Mongers love to sell Stock Market Crash and other Doomsday scenarios. Misery Loves Company so don’t fall for the nonsense that the Buffett indicator is predicting a stock market Crash mumbo jumbo prediction. Instead, try to view stock market crashes as buying opportunities for until Fiat is eliminated the markets will always trend upwards.
Stock Market Crash 2017 boils down to all bark and no bite
For the past few years much the angst of many experts we have consistently stated that the markets were not ready to crash. Moreover, we believe that Experts are not Smart Enough to Spot Stock Market Crash 2017. If they were they would not have made the same predictions in 2014, 2015 and 2016. All these predictions of disasters proved to be nothing but idle chatter.
From late 2016 to early 2017, many former Bulls who predicted the direction of this market quite well, suddenly decided that the stock market was ready to crash. We, however, begged to differ, and we provided two very simple reasons for our stance.
Experts Fail To Realise that Emotions drive the markets:
The masses have remained nervous throughout this bull run; no bull market has ever ended when the masses are nervous. History indicates that stock market crashes begin on a euphoric note and end on a note of hysteria.
The trend clearly states that the Experts are on the wrong side of the Stock Market Crash 2017 argument
We focus more on the psychology of the masses than on any other single factor. However, the 2nd most important factor is the trend. The trend has remained positive throughout this bull run; occasionally it has moved into the neutral zone, but it has never turned negative. We are not talking about the trend based on the drawing of simple trend lines but one that is calculated utilizing several factors one of which happens to price action.
So when the experts started to scream over and over again about the impending stock market crash of 2017; these are some of the comments we recently made to our readers and or subscribers
Let the experts sing their songs of doom and con the masses; it takes two to tango, one to cry and three to have a party. We have experts from the technical analysis side and experts employing fundamentals trying to use to back their faulty assertions. Unfortunately for these penguins both of them are wrong. They have failed to pay attention to the psychological factor. There is no factor more important when it comes to playing the markets then market psychology. Market Update April 30, 2017
The market marches to its beat and those that resist are drained; financially speaking that is. We are not fortune tellers; we reserve that noteworthy task for the experts who seem to take delight on spewing rubbish week after week. The media then regurgitates this rubbish, and a jackass is suddenly made to look like a movie star. What a wonderful world we live in and people wonder why they lose money after listening to these wise men.
We, on the other hand, prefer to listen to what the market is saying and that is why we never listen to our gut instinct or let our emotions into the equation. We look for trends. Market Update May 19, 2017
What’s The most nonplussing factor in this bull market?
The emotional state of the masses; the herd, for the most part, has been oscillating back and forth from the neutral to the Bearish camps; very few have dared to venture into the bullish camp. This probably explains why the bullish readings never even came close to testing the 60% ranges for the past 15 weeks and counting. During that time the market has been trending higher and higher. This has caught many an expert with his pants down. But there is no surprise here; the reason as we have stated so many times over and over again is that the Crowd is not euphoric and the trend is still bullish.
The same pattern holds true for most of 2015 and 2016; the number individuals in the Bearish and neutral camps outnumbered those in the bullish camp. If you are in the Neutral camp one of two things one of two things apply; you are either are a bear that got burned or Bull with no courage to take a position.
Our proprietary sentiment indicator also confirms that the masses are still antsy.
If the markets were extremely overbought, then it should be almost impossible to find stocks that are trading in the oversold ranges on the monthly charts. On a monthly chart, each bar represents one month’s worth of data on; these charts provide great clues of what to expect from the markets.
In the Dow, we spotted several stocks that were trading in the extremely oversold ranges to oversold ranges on the monthly charts. AAPL, HD, DIS and NKE are examples of such stocks.
We also examined roughly 150 random Midcap to large cap stocks (ETF’s were included in this analysis) from various sectors; we found that almost 60% of the stocks examined were trading in the oversold ranges; one ETF that caught our eye was IBB; it is trading in the extremely oversold ranges.
We also noted that the net number of new 52 week highs continuously exceeded the net number of new 52 week lows. Why is this important? It indicates that the internal structure of the market is healthy.
Tactical investors Alternative Dow theory states that the experts have it wrong
Our stance for the past 11 years has been that the Dow Theory is dead; we provided an alternative Dow Theory that has proven to be far more accurate than the original. This theory states that it is the utilities that should be followed and not the transports. We will cover this in more detail in a follow-up article next week. In essence, it is the Utilities that lead the way and not the transports.
The utilities started to consolidate roughly from Aug of 2016 and bottomed out in Nov 2016 and had consolidated for roughly three months before they started to trend upwards. The utilities are now surging to new highs, and this bodes well for the overall market. The alternative theory states that the Dow should follow suit.
This is a mature bull market so one should not expect it to trend in one direction only; it will experience several corrections ranging from mild to severe. Unfortunately, the Dr’s of doom will confuse this correction for a crash as they have mistakenly done so for the past eight years and counting. When the masses embrace this market, the end will be close at hand; until then strong corrections should be embraced.
There is a lag period between the utilities and the Dow; sometimes it comes down to just a few weeks, but usually, it ranges from 3-5 months. The Dow has been consolidating since March; it has essentially been trading in a tight range. Even though the Dow did not pull back strongly, the sideways action helped it blow out a large dose of steam as envisioned by the MACD’s and several other technical indicators that are trading in the oversold ranges. The lag period was roughly three months as the utility bottomed out in Nov and the Dow started to consolidate in March of 2017.
The stock market crash theme makes for great headlines as fear sells well, but that is all it has been good for so far. The market will experience a much stronger correction over the course of the next 6-15 months, but until the masses embrace this bull market, those corrections will prove to be buying opportunities.
The overall Market sentiment illustrates that the masses are not jumping with joy. The trend is positive, and the Dow Utilities have surged to new highs. Therefore under such conditions, it is hard to envision a crash like a scenario.
Every bull market experiences one back breaking correction that is mistakenly labelled as the beginning of a new bear market. When that occurs, it will be a sign that the end is close at hand. That strong correction will subsequently trigger an even stronger rally and fuel a feeding frenzy. Sentiment will turn bullish, and the masses will dance with Joy, then the bottom will drop. However, we are not at this stage, so there is no point in further developing this story line.
Our ideal setup would call for the Dow to shed 600-1000 points over a very short period; this would drive the masses into the hysteria zone. A small push is all it would take to drive the fear factor through the roof. We all know what happens next; the masses stampede, the smart money swoops in, and history repeats itself once again. For the masses, it is groundhogs day every single day.
A genius can’t be forced; nor can you make an ape an alderman.