Stock Market Trends

Stock Market Trends

Tactical Investor Volatility Index Readings are Soaring

Stock Market Trends: Volatility Index readings have surged to new a high (as shown in the header image above), which means that extreme behaviour in all areas can be expected in and out of the markets. Additionally, we added new psychological data points to the V-Indicator and we suspect that this new high could correspond to a new development in the Coronavirus outbreak. Let’s hope it’s a positive one.

The ETF Trend Portfolio is our most conservative portfolio, so in the light of recent developments, one of which is that V-readings have soared to new highs, we are going to err on the side of caution.  This is a dangerous development as over the past 12 months we added a new psychological component to this indicator, and this new high corresponds to the Coronavirus outbreak.

Stock Market Volatility readings

We are not in the “panic” generating business, so there is no need to panic, but this development could mean (operative word being “could”) that China is not telling the full story. The dangerous development is in regards to extreme market volatility; the market could shed several thousand points and then recoup these losses just as fast. Most traders are not prepared for this type of action, so when the market’s pullback strongly or appear to be crashing, they will throw the baby out with the bathwater and in doing so make a colossal mistake.

China Could be downplaying the situation

In all likelihood, China is releasing selective pieces of data, but in general, the world is used to this. However, what could trigger a sharp reaction from the markets is if this data proves to be damaging. There have been previous scares before and in each case, the markets sold off, but the sell-off proved to be a buying opportunity. The last sell-off was due to the Ebola virus scare back in Oct of 2018.

In the long run, this is not a negative development as the long term trend is still bullish, so if it comes to pass, we will have an opportunity to get into stocks and ETF’s at a discount.   We have adjusted pending sell orders, stops and in some cases, cancelled pending orders on the following ETF’s.  Bottom line while prudence is warranted, Panic is not; hence focus on the trend and ignore the noise.

Volatility Index readings are high but we are not going to follow the herd

Hence the statement below refers to several dangerous trends but not the ones that come straight to one’s mind:

This is a dangerous development as over the past 12 months we added a new psychological component to this indicator, and this new high corresponds to the Coronavirus outbreak.  Interim Market Update Jan 31, 2020

We want to clarify what we mean by dangerous (in the above statement) as we don’t want anyone to falsely assume that we are embracing some of the wild conspiracy theories being put forward regarding this virus.  We analysed the data thoroughly, especially the psychological data. We also looked at data evaluated by other level headed experts; many thanks to our subscribers for providing links to some of these experts, which once again solidifies our claim that we are fortunate enough to some have some of the best minds out there as part of our community.  We have concluded that the Coronavirus issue is being blown out of proportion.

Weaponised news; A dangerous trend with no end in sight

The first trend is that news is going to be weaponised to the extreme to support whatever narrative a given group of individuals have decided to embrace or force on a subset of the crowd. Secondly, as V-readings have no surged to new highs, the market will experience more random bouts of extreme volatility and this should be embraced when the trend is positive.

Thirdly, violence (as in wars, crime, etc), wild weather patterns will be more prevalent going forward and extreme and we mean extremely stupid behaviour is going to be embraced.  Lastly, polarisation levels are going to rise to such an extreme that we could reach a point where a simple disagreement set off something akin to a mini civil war.

Back to the Coronavirus issue:

In Asia, masks are selling out like hotcakes and we suspect many stocks that are in the vaccine creation field have experienced huge price increases. In other words, a group of companies are making out like bandits, while the masses being fleeced again. The data out there states that this virus has a mortality rate of 3% and no new data has come out refuting it.

Therefore we find it quite interesting that many financial experts with no background in medicine or psychology have gone out of their way to state that the situation is on the verge of becoming a pandemic.  Too many experts believe in the deep state, while there is an apparatus that could be called the “deep state”, their understanding of this topic is limited at best.

The way these power brokers work is to indoctrinate people, so the players are willing participants or blind participants (blind as in being mentally blind and not physically blind) which boil down to the same thing. These individuals are used as cannon fodder; the objective is achieved by pandering to their wild fantasies. This objective is achieved by allow Gossip artists to masquerade as reporters. In the old days, they would be called fisherwoman.

As of now, we have found no objective data that backs the many claims non- experts are pushing regarding the Coronavirus and the only dangerous trends we see are the ones we have addressed above. Could the situation change? Yes, anything is possible, but history reveals that most naysayers are full of hot air as the world was supposed to  have officially ended a long time ago

We had pandemics before so this is nothing new

As I am typing, people are dying all over the world. In the time it took me to type this sentence, more than 15 people died.  Seventy-eight thousand people have died today, and the number will rise to 80,000 or more by the time you get this update. So far this year 9,500,000 people have died, and that number rises every second. One could state that death is a pandemic, but no one is screaming about that issue. Smoking-related and or Cancer-related deaths could be also classified as a pandemic as more than 16.6 million will die this year from both, and yet no one makes a big deal (9.6 million from cancer and seven million-plus from smoking).

To date, roughly 2860 people have died from the coronavirus, and suddenly it’s the new Black Death. To be clear, we are not making light of the situation, but so much attention is being given to this one agent when compared to other agents of death.  Here is an interesting fact; there are twice as many new births as deaths on a global basis. Live data on world deaths, birth rates, coronavirus deaths, etc. can be obtained from here http://bit.ly/32wVaQA

High Volatility Index Readings: Use This To Your Advantage

There have been more than a dozen outbreaks since 1980 and with far deadlier outcomes in some instances, but if you look at the chart above, after a knee jerk reaction, the markets trended higher. Hence, the Tactical Investor saying;  “every disaster leads to a hidden opportunity” and the only way to spot that opportunity is not to give in to panic.  We envision a similar outcome for the coronavirus, the markets could still sell-off but that sell-off should be viewed through a bullish lens.

The mass mindset is hard wired to panic. One can overcome this shortfall by observing this behavior impartially and then ask this simple question “why am I doing something that has never led to a positive outcome”.  Secondly, as we have advocated for years, one should maintain a trading journal and the best time to put pen to paper or fingers to a keyboard is when the markets are tanking. Make a note of the emotions that are swirling through your mind. Jot down some of the headlines the media is pushing out and observe the reactions from your fellowman. This information will prove to be priceless in the weeks, months, years and decades to come.

The markets are trading in the extremely overbought ranges on the weekly charts, and in theory, they should let out some steam, but the monthly charts, for now, are exerting more upward pressure than they normally do. It should be noted that the weekly charts also move relatively slowly, so there is still time for the markets to let out some steam.

Courtesy of Tactical Investor

 

What Will The Stock Market Return In 2020?

It’s the most wonderful time of the year — when investment gurus unveil their predictions for what the stock market will return in the coming year.

We expect investment experts to have crystal balls that allow them to see how the stock market is going to perform in the future. Of course, they don’t have crystal balls, and their predictions often aren’t helpful.

The problem with expert predictions of the stock market isn’t that they are wrong — which they often are — the future is uncertain, and we shouldn’t expect anyone to predict it. The problem is that investors often listen to these predictions and base investment decisions on them.

There are better ways to cope with the uncertainty of the 2020 market than listening to predictions. Before we get to those, let’s review what we can predict and what we cannot.

What We Can Predict
While the stock market follows a cycle but defies prediction, history can provide insight into what we might expect from the markets in any given year.

The histogram below displays the dispersion of returns on the S&P 500 since 1928:
As you can see, in about two-thirds of the years, the market is up and about one-third of the time it is down. The distribution is roughly a bell curve with a positive skew and a fat left tail (meaning large negative returns happen more often than a bell curve would predict). Full Story

The Top 15 Stocks to Buy in 2020

Heading into a new year, all investors want to know is what stocks they should be buying.

At the beginning of this year, I attempted to answer that question by compiling a portfolio of the top 15 stocks to buy for 2020. In mid-February, that portfolio of stocks was up a whopping 22% year-to-date.

Then, the novel coronavirus outbreak went global. Russia and Saudi Arabia started an all-out oil price war. Financial markets across the globe fell off a cliff. So did my portfolio of top stocks to buy for 2020.

But, I think now may be as good a time as any to double down on these top stocks. Coronavirus headwinds are fleeting. They will pass. Once they do, these long-term growth stocks will get back to winning.

In no particular order, the top 15 stocks to buy for 2020 in March are:

  • Facebook (NASDAQ:FB)
  • Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI)
  • Luckin Coffee (NYSE:LK)
  • Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND)
  • Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX)
  • Pinterest (NYSE:PINS)
  • Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC)
  • Square (NYSE:SQ)
  • The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD)
  • Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY)
  • Okta (NASDAQ:OKTA)
  • JD.Com (NASDAQ:JD)
  • Stitch Fix (NASDAQ:SFIX)
  • Nio (NYSE:NIO)
  • Snap (NYSE:SNAP)

Without further ado, then, let’s take a look where these top stocks to buy for 2020 are going next. Full Story

 

20 Predictions for the Stock Market in 2020

t’s a brand-new year, and boy, does 2020 have some big shoes to fill. Last year, we witnessed the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) gallop higher by nearly 29%, which is quadruple the historic average annual return of the stock market, inclusive of dividend reinvestment and when adjusted for inflation.

The big question, of course, is what might the current year hold for the broader market and investors? The following 20 predictions for the stock market in 2020 may offer some insight.
1. There will be no recession in 2020
Probably the biggest question on investors’ minds is whether a recession is brewing. While that does look to be the case following a very brief inversion of the two-year and 10-year Treasury bonds in late August, data from Credit Suisse, dating back to 1978, shows that the average recession doesn’t pop up until 22 months after the inversion occurs. Similarly, stock market returns don’t turn negative until an average of 18 months after an inversion, putting the market on track to lose its steam during the first quarter of 2021 (assuming these averages hold true).

For the time being, the longest economic expansion in U.S. history looks poised to continue.
2. The stock market will have another positive year
Despite the stock market delivering returns that were well above the historic norms in 2019, this year should deliver more gains to investors. Full Story

Benefits of eggs: Health Facts

Benefits of eggs

If there was such a thing as a perfect food, eggs would be a contender. They’re readily available, easy to cook, affordable and packed with protein.

“The egg is meant to be something that has all the right ingredients to grow an organism, so obviously it’s very nutrient dense,” says Christopher Blesso, associate professor of nutritional science at the University of Connecticut in the US.

Eating eggs alongside other food can help our bodies absorb more vitamins, too. For example, one study found that adding an egg to salad can increase how much vitamin E we get from the salad.

But for decades, eating eggs has also been controversial due to their high cholesterol content – which some studies have linked to an increased risk of heart disease. One egg yolk contains around 185 milligrams of cholesterol, which is more than half of the 300mg daily amount of cholesterol that the US dietary guidelines recommended until recently.

Does that mean eggs, rather than an ideal food, might actually be doing us harm?
Cholesterol, a yellowish fat produced in our liver and intestines, can be found in every one of our body’s cells. We normally think of it as “bad”. But cholesterol is a crucial building block in our cell membranes. It also is needed for the body to make vitamin D, and the hormones testosterone and estrogen. Full Story

 

Israel election: Netanyahu in tough fight in this year’s second vote

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the snap election after failing to form a governing coalition with a viable majority after April’s vote.

The final opinion polls put his right-wing Likud party neck and neck with its main challenger, the centrist Blue and White party led by former military chief Benny Gantz.

Smaller parties could therefore have a big say in the final outcome. Full Story

 

Hong Kong: Looking back at 100 days of protests

Hong Kong has been gripped by huge and at times violent protests since an extradition bill was proposed which would have made it possible for people in Hong Kong to be extradited to mainland China.

The unrest has seen millions of people pressure the government to withdraw the bill and call for full democracy. Full Story

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Ric Ocasek, frontman of The Cars, dead at 75

Ric Ocasek, frontman of The Cars, dead at 75

NEW YORK (AP) — Ric Ocasek, The Cars frontman whose deadpan vocal delivery and lanky, sunglassed look defined a rock era with chart-topping hits like “Just What I Needed,” was discovered dead Sunday afternoon in his Manhattan apartment.

The New York Police Department said that officers found the 75-year-old Ocasek at about 4 p.m. after responding to a 911 call. They said there were no signs of foul play and that the medical examiner was to determine a cause of death.

The death comes a year after The Cars were inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame, followed by an announcement by model Paulina Porizkova on social media that she and Ocasek had separated after 28 years of marriage. The pair first met while filming the music video for “Drive,” another Cars hit.

Ocasek, who sang, played guitar and wrote most of the band’s songs, and Benjamin Orr, who played bass and also sang, were ex-hippie buddies who formed The Cars in Boston in 1976. They were a decade older than many of their modern-rock compatriots but became one of the most essential American bands of the late 1970s and 1980s with their fusion of new wave, 1960s pop and 1970s glam.

Ocasek’s minimalist, half-spoken deadpan vocals set made the band’s sound, and his long, lanky appearance formed their lasting image.

The first three songs on their 1978 self-titled first album were all hit singles and remain widely known classics and oldies radio airplay: “Good Times Roll,” ″My Best Friend’s Girl” and “Just What I Needed.” Full Story

 

Trump says US locked and loaded in response to drone attack

WASHINGTON (AP) — Tensions are flaring in the Persian Gulf after President Donald Trump said the U.S. is “locked and loaded” to respond to a weekend drone assault on Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure that his aides blamed on Iran.

The attack, which halved the kingdom’s oil production and sent crude prices spiking , led Trump to authorize the release of U.S. strategic reserves should they be necessary to stabilize markets. Full Story

 

As shock wears off, mental health concerns grow in Bahamas

HIGH ROCK, Bahamas (AP) — One woman and her husband huddled on top of a bedroom dresser for two days, surrounded by floodwaters.

Another man sat in his wheelchair for nearly 48 hours in water up to his chest, alone in his home.

A third rescued a friend who sat in shock when part of a building where they sought shelter blew away.

Stories of survival are trickling out across northern Bahamas as the initial shock wears off from Hurricane Dorian, one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in history. Full Story

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Nothing about 1987 stock market crash anniversary

Nickel Stocks Has Put In A long Term Bottom

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Big hit for oil prices – US blames Iran for Saudi strike

Big hit for oil prices - US blames Iran for Saudi strike

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. tried to build its case Monday that Iran was behind the fiery weekend attack on key Saudi Arabian oil facilities that raised new war worries and sent energy prices spiraling worldwide. Iran denied responsibility, while President Donald Trump said the United States was “locked and loaded” to respond if necessary.

American officials released satellite images of the damage at the heart of the kingdom’s crucial Abqaiq oil processing plant and a key oil field, and two U.S. officials said the attacker used multiple cruise missiles and drone aircraft.

The Americans alleged the pattern of destruction suggested Saturday’s attack did not come from neighboring Yemen, as claimed by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels there. A Saudi military spokesman later made a similar accusation, alleging “Iranian weapons” had been used in the assault.

Iran rejected the allegations, and a government spokesman said there now was “absolutely no chance” of a hoped-for meeting between Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Trump at the U.N. General Assembly next week.
For his part, Trump sent mixed signals, saying his “locked and loaded” government waited for Saudi confirmation of Iran being behind the attack while later tweeting that the U.S. didn’t need Mideast oil “but will help our Allies!”

One U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, said the U.S. was considering dispatching additional military resources to the Gulf but that no decisions had been made. Full Story

 

Warren offers anti-corruption plan central to her campaign

NEW YORK (AP) — Elizabeth Warren has released a proposal aimed at government corruption, providing a detailed policy roadmap for a fight she says is at the core of her presidential campaign.

The Democratic senator from Massachusetts is announcing the plan Monday in Manhattan’s Washington Square Park, near the site of the Triangle Shirtwaist Co., which caught fire in 1911, killing 140-plus workers. Many of those deaths later were attributed to neglected safety features, such as doors that were locked inside the factory. Full Story

 

Auto strike idles more than 50 GM factories and warehouses

DETROIT (AP) — More than 49,000 members of the United Auto Workers went on strike Monday against General Motors, bringing more than 50 factories and parts warehouses to a standstill in the union’s first walkout against the No. 1 U.S. automaker in over a decade.

Workers left factories and formed picket lines shortly after midnight in the dispute over a new four-year contract. The union’s top negotiator said in a letter to the company that the strike could have been averted had the company made its latest offer sooner. Full Story

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Technology Driven Deflation Will Kill The Inflation Monster

Nothing about 1987 stock market crash anniversary

Nickel Stocks Has Put In A long Term Bottom

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Stock Market Crash Of 1929

Stock Market Crash Of 1929

What was the ‘Stock Market Crash Of 1929’

The Stock Market Crash of 1929 began on October 24. While it is remembered for the panic selling in the first week, the largest falls occurred in the following two years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average did not bottom out until July 8, 1932, by which time it had fallen 89% from its September 1929 peak, making it the biggest bear market in Wall Street’s history. The Dow Jones did not return to its 1929 high until November 1954.

BREAKING DOWN ‘Stock Market Crash Of 1929’

The stock market crash of 1929 followed a bull market which had seen the Dow Jones rise 400% in five years. But with industrial companies trading at price-earnings ratios of 15, valuations did not appear unreasonable after a decade of record productivity growth in manufacturing – that is until you take into account the public utility holding companies.

By 1929, thousands of electricity companies had been consolidated into holding companies which were themselves owned by other holding companies, which controlled about two-thirds of American industry. Ten layers separated the top and bottom of some of these complex highly leveraged pyramids. As the Federal Trade Commission reported in 1928, the unfair practices these holding companies were involved in — like bilking subsidiaries through service contracts and fraudulent accounting involving depreciation and inflated property values — were a “menace to the investor.”

Full Story

 

A brief history of the 1929 stock market crash

  • The stock market crashed in 1929, plummeting into a correction.
  • Margin buying, lack of legal protections, overpriced stocks and Fed policy contributed to the crash.
  • There are ways to protect investors can protect a portfolio from downturns.

On October 16, 1929, Yale economist Irving Fisher wrote in the New York Times that “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Eight days later, on October 24, 1929, the stock market began a four-day crash on what became known as Black Thursday. This crash cost investors more than World War I and was one of the catalysts for the Great Depression. Irving Fisher’s declaration went down as the worst stock market prediction of all time.

Before the 1929 stock market crash: Risks and warning signs

Hindsight is always 20/20 but in the Roaring Twenties, optimism and affluence had risen like never before. The economy grew by 42% (real GDP went from $688 billion in 1920 to $977 billion in 1929), average income rose by about $1,500 and unemployment stayed below 4%. In the wake of World War I, the U.S. was producing nearly half of global output and mass production made consumer goods like refrigerators, washing machines, radios and vacuums accessible to the average household. Investing in stocks became like baseball – a national pastime. As newspaper headlines trumpeted stories about teachers, chauffeurs and maids making millions in the stock market, concerns about risk evaporated.

Full Story

 

Why The 1929 Stock Market Crash Could Happen In 2018?

As U.S. stocks continue soaring to record high after record high, investors anticipating an inevitable plunge have yet another cause for sleepless nights. The CAPE ratio, a measure of stock valuations devised by Nobel Laureate economist Robert Shiller of Yale University, is now at a higher level than it was before the Great Crash of 1929the Financial Times reports, adding that the only time the CAPE was even higher preceded the dotcom crash of 2000-02. However, the FT notes, there are some differences between 1929 and 2018 that make the CAPE parallel less terrifying for investors.

From their previous bear market lows reached in intraday trading on March 6, 2009, through their closing values on January 12, 2018, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has gained 318% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has advanced 299%. Regarding the CAPE valuation analysis, there are several key limitations.

Drawbacks of CAPE

According to investment manager Rob Arnott, the founder, chairman and CEO of Research Associates, CAPE has been on an upward trend over time. This makes sense both to him and to the FT since the U.S. as progressed from being essentially an emerging market to the world’s dominant economy during the course of more than a century. As a result, both believe that an increasing earnings multiple for U.S. stocks would be justified. While the current value of CAPE is above its long term trend line, the difference is much smaller than in 1929, as Arnott’s detailed research paper shows.

Full Story

Bitcoin Crash: Is Bitcoin Bull Dead Forever?

Bitcoin Crash

The dot.com mania underwent a backbreaking correction before the market blasted off and topped out at the end of 1999. The image above illustrates that Bitcoin also experienced such a correction, but because of the large follow through move it appears to be nothing but a blip. Consider that from a high of 2977 (June 10, 2017); it dropped to a low of 1808 set on the 15th of July 2017; it shed roughly 40% in that short period (illustrated by the green box). Everyone knows what followed.

Bitcoin Backbreaking correction Dec 2018

Misery loves company, but it tends to Pay’s very poorly in the long run
It looks grim, the media is pumping end of the world type scenarios, strong bulls are showing signs of weakness, and even contrarian investors are starting to break. Pure contrarians are smarter than the masses, but they do have flaws; the smartest investors are the ones that put the principles of mass psychology into play. They observe the mass mindset, and they understand that even when fear starts to creep into the equation, they are compelled to ask this question: Was the crowd in a state of euphoria when the market topped out? If the answer is “no”, then no matter how terrible the picture might look, the end game is that the crowd is being set up for a false downward move. And the normal response would “why”. Simple answer, this is an advanced form of Pavlovian training.

The Bitcoin crash was like the Tulip Bubble, it was a scam from the beginning. The ones that made the money were the ones that got in first, the ones that got in late were handed their heads on a stinky tin platter. Never get into an investment when the masses are euphoric, buy when there is blood in the streets and vice versa.

Stock market crashes are different as they don’t represent one sector, so it is just a matter of time before the markets will revert to the norm. From a mass psychology perspective, stock market crashes are nothing but long-term buying opportunities. Forget about the what happens if the stock market crashes scenario, and focus on what you would do if stocks you were dying to own before are now selling for pennies on the dollar.

Pavlovian Type Training Is Being Used On The Masses
When the market does put in a bottom after experiencing a backbreaking correction, and then goes on to mount a powerful rally; the crowd imprints the following data in their minds. Buy the pullback, because it is a fake trap to drive us out; they also start to believe in the following mantra “the stronger the pullback, the better the opportunity”. Next time when the Market puts in a top, bullish sentiment will remain unusually high, and that will be the warning to students of Mass Psychology that the real skull crushing correction is on its way. Again, we point you in the direction of the not too distant Bitcoin spectacular bull market and the equally spectacular crash. From low to high Bitcoin tacked on 11,000% in gains and the masses still assumed that the only direction it could trade was up. When it topped the Bitcoin crowd was beyond ecstatic.

As for whether the bitcoin crash is over, we believe that one should wait a bit longer before jumping in and for all intents and purposes, Bitcoin is highly unlikely to test the 20,000 ranges for a very long time. On the downside, bitcoin is likely to test the 3000 ranges with a possible overshoot to the 2,500 ranges before a meaningful bottom takes hold. At this point in time, there are many other stocks that look interesting and far more attractive than bitcoin, for example, PG, MRK, TCEHY, etc

Courtesy of Tactical Investor

 

Random views on Bitcoin Crash

So, you’ve heard about Bitcoin and you want to invest…
You’re not the only one! Bitcoin has been one of the best investments you could have made in the last 5 years. People are still using it to make a lot of money, in many different ways.
In this guide, I will teach you the history of Bitcoin, the future of Bitcoin and how to understand what goes into a Bitcoin price prediction. We will look at predictions for different years, including the Bitcoin price prediction 2019. I will answer the questions that are on everybody’s minds, like “Will Bitcoin crash?” and “Why is Bitcoin rising?”.
Understanding how to predict and invest is the first step to building a successful portfolio. However, with all investments, there are risks involved. So, you should always speak to a financial advisor before making any major decisions. Before going to Bitcoin price prediction, let’s go back a little to the basics. I assume, as you are reading this guide, you must have heard of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the world’s first digital currency and it has been very popular over the last year! A lot of people have made large profits by buying Bitcoin for a low price and then selling it for a high price.
Confused? Well, let me explain.
Bitcoin is a currency, just like US Dollars, Japanese Yen or British Pounds. It can be bought, sold and exchanged for goods and services. Full Story

 

Is Now The Time to Buy Bitcoin? The 2019 Edition

Many investors are still hesitant about Bitcoin ending the bearish period, despite Bitcoin’s recent consolidation price action and market fundamentals looking strong
How will you know if it’s the time to buy Bitcoin? In this article we’ll present signs that may indicate on an end to the current bear market.
Timing the market is almost impossible – meet the DCA option.
Most experienced traders know that markets are primarily driven by emotions, and the key to cracking them is understanding the market psychology as well as being able to interpret technical analysis and chart fundamentals.

Despite this public knowledge, many of us still fall into the same traps that cause us to either lose money or miss out on significant investment opportunities. This is not just limited to Bitcoin and crypto.

The current sentiment around the crypto markets indicates that the majority may be falling for yet another emotionally driven trap.

Ironically, people rushed to buy Bitcoin when it first hit $10,000 and $15,000 in late 2017, yet now when the price is around the mid $3K range (discount of over 80% from the all-time high), there is steady progress and strong market fundamentals, buyers seem to be more hesitant than ever about entering the market and buying Bitcoin.

Perhaps it’s the fear of being yet another victim of the market crashes we’ve seen during the 2018 bear market, or the constant negative messaging led by the mainstream media insisting that ‘Bitcoin is dead’ or a ‘pyramid scheme’. Full Story

Strategist Who Called Bitcoin Crash Says It’s Time to Buy Crypto

Bitcoin is in the middle of a sustained recovery and investors should use recent weakness to buy more, according to Fundstrat technical strategist Robert Sluymer. The largest cryptocurrency climbed to its highest since November.

“Use pending pullbacks to continue accumulating Bitcoin in the second quarter in anticipation of a second-half rally through ~6,000 resistance,” Sluymer wrote in a note May 2. He sees Bitcoin’s rebound from its 200-week moving average and breakout from its first-quarter trading range as “the early stage of a longer-term recovery developing.”
Bitcoin advanced as much as 7.2 percent to $5,795.50 as of 9:33 a.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg composite pricing. The 55 percent jump in 2019 has helped pull rival tokens higher. Litecoin has soared more than two-fold.

Adding to the overall optimism Friday was a Wall Street Journal report that Facebook Inc. is reaching out to financial companies and online merchants to help launch a cryptocurrency-based payments system tied to the social network.
Sluymer warned in mid-November, when Bitcoin was trading around $5,500, that the asset had suffered “significant technical damage” that could take months to repair. Over the next several weeks, Bitcoin slid to as low as $3,136.04. In February, Sluymer cautioned that the technical position in the crypto space was still weak. Bitcoin didn’t recover the $5,000 level until early April.

Fundstrat was an early mover in analyzing cryptocurrencies and developed its own indexes. And Sluymer’s colleague, Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, is regarded as a Bitcoin bull. Full Story

 

Trending Now News Equates To Garbage; It’s All Talk & No Action

Trending Now Fake News

Trending Now (Fake) News Equates To Garbage

Have you ever heard or seen the press push good news and that begs the question why?  Fear sells, and everyone is using fear as the tool to manipulate the masses.  It is the oldest trick in the books, but unfortunately, it works like a charm.  The so-called Trending Now News concept is just another ploy to make garbage somewhat platable.
Once you realise the ploy, it is easy to deal with the issue. How do you recognise the ruse, the best way is to stop watching TV. For example, I cut the cord roughly 10 years ago. I am always asked if I have a smart TV, and I respond with “yes it’s brilliant” because it keeps its mouth shut most of the time.   When you stop watching the news which is nothing but gossip on steroids, one finds out that nothing has changed. That’s when the realisation sinks in that today’s news has, and will always be an avenue for the best gossipers to turn garbage into sensational headlines. The news is worse than “toilet paper”; at least toilet paper is good for one swipe, one can’t lay the same claim to today’s news.
Bull Neutral Bear chartAnxiety-April-10-2019
The media is going to continue to weaponise the news. Be prepared for fantasy claims regarding Brexit, the trade war with China, and any other factor that can be spun.   Ridiculous claims that make no sense will be used to try to push the fear factor higher; once again the best solution is to just ignore what the media is pushing and focus on the trend.
The “silver lining” is that fear of the unknown increases the “uncertainty factor” and in doing so breathes even more life into this bull market. Until the Masses embrace this bull, this mad bull is unlikely to die.  The logical path based on the news is to panic, the illogical path is to ignore. Logic works when it’s based on reality, but fear is not based on reality, it’s based on a perception of what “could” happen. If you start to fantasize over what could, would, and should happen, one cannot focus on the trend.  Ignore the noise and focus on the trend. 

Despite the fact, that the DOW is dangerously close to testing its old highs, there are too many traders sitting on the sidelines waiting for the markets to pull back.  For almost this entire year, the number of individuals in the neutral camp has exceeded the individuals in the Bearish and Bullish camps.  Neutrality equates to uncertainty and uncertain individuals are the 1st ones to panic.

These chaps will react the same way they have always reacted in the past when the markets do pullback, they will panic and flee for the hills and the whole process of waiting for the next pullback will start over again. In the end, these guys worry about everything but never focus on the main issue, which is to make money in the markets. The only way to make money in the markets is to be in it; as the say, the rest is just noise. Hence there is a very good chance that the next pullback could push neutral readings to the 50% mark. Every time this has occurred (since the inception of this bull market), the markets recouped their losses and then surged to new highs.

The weekly charts illustrate that the Dow is now trading in the overbought ranges; it still has a bit of room before it moves into the extremely overbought zone.  On the monthly charts the MACD’s have still not experienced a bullish crossover; until they do there is always a chance that the markets could experience a stronger than expected pullback.  If this occurs embrace the correction as we from Nov 2018 to Jan 2019.  Market Update April 13, 2019

Random thoughts on the Fed and Stock Market March 2019

In terms of the stock market, until the Fed changes its mind, all sharp corrections have to be viewed as buying opportunities, and backbreaking corrections have to be placed in the category of “once in a lifetime events”, provided of course the trend is positive. That is what we are here for; to inform you if the trend is positive (Up) or negative (down).
The world is going to witness a Fed that has decided to make a cocktail of Coke, Heroin, Crack and Meth and take it all in one shot. Imagine what a junkie on this combination of potent drugs is capable of doing, and you will have an idea of where the Fed is heading in the years to come. Now the Gold bugs will cry “I told you so”. Our response to this statement; not so fast little bugs. While precious metals will do well, we think stocks in key sectors (and we are not referring to Gold stocks) will pulverise the precious metals sector in terms of returns. One such area is robots (particularly Sex-bots) and AI.  Market Update Feb 28, 2019 
Courtesy of Tactical Investor

Random views on Trending Now Fake News

how to avoid financial fake news

Steve McDonald (SM): The topic this week is information sources. With the president claiming that there’s all types of fake news out there, I have news for him: There’s always been fake news in the money press.

So we have Matthew Carr here today to talk about reliable information sources and why that’s so important if you’re going to get the market right.

Welcome, Matt.

Matthew Carr (MC): Thanks for having me, Steve.

SM: It’s my pleasure. We’re not going to get political, I promise you. But is there a lot of fake news in the money press?

MC: Oh, I’m with you. I believe there’s always been some sort of fake news or bias in the press. You know, when I was growing up, we were always taught to read, for example, The Washington Times and The Washington Post.

You read the same story in both publications. They each have a slant either to the left or the right. And you know that somewhere in the middle is the truth. And in the financial press, everybody’s going to pick their sides.

We live in this divided world where our political affiliations sort of dictate everything that we do, so it is important you try to make sure you’re cobbling together the best, clearest picture as possible, and a lot of times that just means pulling from as many sources as possible.

SM: Do you have a primary source of information that you like to use? Full Story

How Social Media Giants Are Fighting The Fake News Menace

In recent times, the issue of fake content has taken epic proportions. Major social media platforms like Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) , Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) , Weibo (NASDAQ:WB) and Alphabet’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google have frequently come under fire for failing to combat the spread of fake news on their platforms.

Social media giants are playing an expansive role in connecting the world, thanks to the improvement in Internet speed and connectivity as well as solid penetration of mobile devices. Per a survey by Pew Research Center last year, 20% of American adults learn about current affairs through social media and only 16% through newspapers.

However, according to the Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2018, the usage of social media and aggregators for news is declining, primarily due to trust and privacy issues, and fake news concerns. The report, which surveyed more than 74,000 people in 37 markets, stated that only 23% of respondents trust the news they find on social media.

Fake News Proliferates Faster

Fake news is spread via bots and fake profiles that use cookies to track people’s website visits. Based on that data, fake profilers and bots allure users to view fake content. Notably, this not only fans the flames of misinformation but also creates cybersecurity threats.

Fake news has been responsible for numerous sensitive situations, including terror propaganda and tampering with people’s sentiments about culture, religion and politics. Full Story

 

How To Invest In A Time Of Fake News?

This election year has created a major challenge for investors: How to deal with the fake news that now circulates daily. The basis of investment fake news is trying to build forecasts and outlooks on political pronouncements. Therefore, we need to ignore the fake flow and focus on facts. Only by doing so can we have a sensible strategy for pursuing returns and controlling risks.

Disclosure: Author is invested in selected U.S. stocks and actively managed U.S. stock funds. Holdings include Apple, Starbucks and Walt Disney, mentioned below.

“Fake news” has two components, commonly used after elections

Taking as fact the statements of desire (primarily by President-elect Donald Trump) that drove the election cycle. The problem is that desires often change when the governing period starts, Moreover, the U.S. Government structure and political realities offer no assurance that desires can become reality, either quickly or as envisioned.

Making pronouncements of surefire investment actions based on simplistic interpretations of those statements of desire. This elementary A=B without fact, fulsome reasoning and common sense is an invitation to underperformance or, worse, loss as the contrarian approach turns out to be the correct path.
Ramping up the challenge is the trail of contradictory statements of desire

Based on his Donald Trump’s statements regarding military buildup, the advice is that we should buy defense stocks. However, what about Trump’s roast of Boeing and Lockheed, plus his dismissive attitude toward our NATO allies, a source of foreign sales? Full Story

Boeing 737

Boeing 737 800

Boeing (BA) CEO Dennis Muilenburg has once again reiterated his expectations about the 737 MAX resuming services in the fourth quarter. Muilenburg made the comments during an investor conference in California on September 11, according to CNBC.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVQz3RKrUfwHowever, he warned that the timetable of the jet’s return could be different in every country, given the disparity among regulators, reports CNBC. Muilenburg said, “I think the phased ungrounding of the airplane amongst regulators around the world is a possibility.”

Boeing is awaiting safety approval for the 737 MAX, which has been under a global flying ban since mid-March after a software problem caused two deadly accidents within five months. Once Boeing updates the software, world regulators will scrutinize it before approving the model to fly again.

The quick return of the MAX is critical for Southwest Airlines (LUV), American Airlines (AAL), and United Airlines (UAL). Together, the three airlines own 72 Boeing 737 MAX planes. They have suffered over 35,000 flight cancellations since the MAX’s grounding, costing them millions of dollars in foregone revenue and operating profit.

Why could the 737 MAX’s return be in phases?
Muilenburg’s concerns look realistic given the changing circumstances. On September 3, The Wall Street Journal reported that Boeing “failed to provide technical details and answer specific questions about modifications in the operation of MAX flight-control computers.” It added that regulators from the US, Europe, Brazil, and many other countries cut short Boeing’s August briefing. Full Story

Indonesia blames Malaysian companies for some forest fires

JAKARTA (Reuters) – Indonesia on Friday blamed four Malaysian companies, including the world’s biggest producer of sustainable palm oil, for causing some of the forest fires within its borders, in an escalating row between neighbours over regional haze.

Malaysia has said Indonesian forest fires are responsible for the smoky haze that has caused air quality to drop to unhealthy levels in certain parts of the country. Indonesia has dismissed those claims, saying fires within Malaysia are causing the pollution. Full Story

 

2020 Dem Debates: Round Three

Round three of the Democratic debates is scheduled for 8 p.m. EDT Thursday at Texas Southern University in Houston. It’s the first debate to be contained to one night, and is expected to take three hours. 10 candidates will be on stage; former Vice President Joe Biden (DE), Senator Elizabeth Warren (MA), Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT), Sen. Kamala Harris (CA), South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (IN), former Congressman Beto O’Rourke (TX), businessman Andrew Yang (NY), Sen. Cory Booker (NJ), former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro (TX), and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (MN). Full Story

 

Asian markets move higher on hopes for a cooling trade war

Hong Kong (CNN Business)Asian stocks rallied Friday on continued hopes for a break in the US-China trade war.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) was up 0.3% at market open, gaining ground after posting losses Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei (N225) jumped nearly 1%.
Markets in mainland China and South Korea were closed for holidays. Full Story

Syria Turkey: offensive: Syrian army heads north after Kurdish deal

Syria Turkey

Syria Turkey: Syrian government forces have started to reach the north of the country, hours after the government agreed to help Kurdish forces facing Turkey.

Syrian state media say government forces entered Ain Issa on Monday, 30km (19 miles) south of the Turkish border.

The deal came after the US, the Kurds’ main ally, said it would withdraw its remaining troops from northern Syria.

Turkey began an offensive in the region last week, aiming to push Kurdish forces from the border region.

Areas under the control of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) came under heavy bombardment over the weekend, with Turkey making gains in two key border towns.

Dozens of civilians and fighters have been killed on both sides.

The US announced on Sunday it was preparing to evacuate its 1,000 remaining soldiers from northern Syria.The Turkish offensive and US withdrawal have drawn an international outcry, as the SDF were the main allies of the West in the battle against the Islamic State (IS) group in Syria.

There have been fears about a possible resurgence of the group amid the instability. On Sunday Kurdish officials said nearly 800 relatives of foreign IS members had escaped from a camp in Ain Issa, where the Syrian army reportedly has now reached.

Turkey views elements of the Kurdish groups as terrorists and says it wants to drive them away from a “safe zone” reaching 32km into Syria. Full Story

 

The K-pop star Sulli has died aged 25

Police told the BBC the singer’s manager found her dead at her home near Seoul, South Korea.

They say they are investigating the cause of her death and are working on the ‎assumption that she may have taken her own life.‎

The star, who had more than five million followers on Instagram, was a former member of the band f(x) until she left in 2015 to focus on her acting career. Full Story

 

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France pension reform: huge jams

France pension reform

Macron pension reform: Paris paralysed by massive strike

The French capital is seeing huge jams and massive crowds on the few metro lines running as transport workers strike against planned France pension reform.

Ten of Paris’s 16 lines were shut and service on the others was disrupted.

Many workers cycled, walked or stayed at home, while free rides were on offer on transport operator RATP’s e-moped and Uber’s e-bike and scooter networks.

The strike, the biggest since 2007, is the first big act against President Macron’s plan for a universal pension.

It would replace dozens of different pension schemes for different professions.

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Members of other professions including lawyers, airline staff and medical workers have called for more strikes starting on Monday.

What is the situation in Paris?
There were 235km (145 miles) of traffic jams in the Paris region, officials said, more than double normal levels.

Local media showed photos of crammed platforms on four metro lines, where some trains were running.

Le Parisien newspaper said a legal requirement to maintain a minimum level of service – in place following a big strike in 2007, which was also against a pension overhaul – was not being fulfilled.

Three of the city’s five regional rail lines, run by national rail operator SNCF, were running as normal but the two other lines were offering a reduced rush hour service and no trains at all during the rest of the day. Full Story

Myanmar’s deadly ‘jade rush’

The world’s biggest jade mines are found in the restive Kachin state in Myanmar.

BBC Burmese gained rare access to area where mountains have been turned into moonscapes. Full Story

South Africa sexual violence protesters target stock exchange

People campaigning over the high levels of violence against women in South Africa have taken their protest to the financial heart of the country.

Hundreds have gathered outside the Johannesburg Stock Exchange to call on the country’s big firms to do more to tackle gender inequality. Full Story

 

Malaria vaccine in Kenya – a potential game-changer

The world’s first malaria vaccine is being rolled out in parts of Kenya from Friday, after previously being released in Ghana and Malawi.

It will be added to the routine vaccination schedule, and more than 300,000 children are expected to receive the vaccine over the next three years. Full Story

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