US Dow Jones Outlook

Posted on 02/24/2023 by Yanis P.

US Dow Jones Stock Market outlook

Huge amounts of money have abandoned the marketplace, suggesting the audience is panicking at the incorrect time. History illustrates the Crowd is not right over the long term; they undergo moments of success but these minutes dwarf years of declines when the markets take off, they’re made to survive.
The Dow Jones market has now dipped under 27K (on monthly basis), and so There’s a fantastic chance that one of the 2 results we prefer can come to pass:

The Dow falls fast and hard into the 25,500 into 26,000 ranges, the audience stampedes and in doing so produce a beautiful long-term chance for Tactical Investor. The industry pull-back a little and after those tendencies sideways and in doing this pushes our signs to the oversold ranges.

That’s the reason the rewards are very significant and that’s the reason there’s not any reward, but it requires effort to stay calm in the face of fear although it requires no effort. Mass Psychology shows you shouldn’t follow the herd since they do the incorrect thing at the ideal time.

Before we get in the perspective lets look at what we have stated over the last few months:
The strategy under these circumstances is to make use of pullbacks to start places in businesses; the more powerful the pullback, the greater the chance. We can see indications which 2018 ought to be a fantastic season for those markets. Individuals awaiting the entry points will likely be left.

They wish they’d purchased, as they did back in 2009, 2015, 2018 and currently in 2020 and will return at the entrance points. If push comes to shove, they bend and drop for the exact same play, although the audience never learns they state that they need to try out something fresh.
It requires a particular sort of dumb to be a Permabear; the one that a million hard slaps won’t change.

Permabears have a death wish; for nothing else could describe this means of thinking, they’re begging to be taken to the cleaners. A simple evaluation of any term graph will establish that being a Permabear is not likely to pay off. There’s not a single long term graph that may prove that carrying a position, in the long term, has paid off.

Copper continues to devote a pattern and we all guess it won’t be long then until the markets burst, after the MACD’s on the graphs encounter a crossover.

In the event the market pulls back, it is a bonus, and that is precisely why we also adopt the position that if the trend is upward; the more powerful the stalks, the greater the chance. Because the tendency is upward pullbacks should be looked at as Christmas bonuses. Pullbacks may be used to start or add to the present rankings of one.

An individual can observe that from crashes, corrections that are powerful or a long-term perspective, are not anything but purchasing opportunities. Buy when there is blood flowing on the roads once the herd turns off and run to your life.

As stated by the alternative Dow Theory, when the Dow utility commerce to fresh highs, it suggests the general market will follow suit sooner than after.

US Dow Jones predictions 2020

At this point, anyone may probably get their Dow Jones predictions wrong, as the international economic aftermath of the coronavirus can’t be anticipated while the crisis persists.

On the flip side, an analysis of the index’s components and its own historical behaviour during and after certain disasters could stage investors in the right direction when it comes to drafting a potential Dow Jones index forecast for 2020.

So far, the major stock indices across the world have lost a significant portion of their value, with the DJIA falling by nearly 30 percent, followed with the S&P 500 that has lost nearly 28 per cent and the FTSE 100 whose worth has dropped by 26 per cent since February 20, when the markets starting falling off a cliff without any signs of recovery on the horizon.

However, no academic could predict a worldwide pandemic like the coronavirus outbreak because the ultimate cause for a worldwide recession, and to be honest, that would?
-Or worse, will the Dow Jones go up anywhere near its pre-coronavirus degree in the not too distant future?

Many economists have been warning that a possible recession was right at the corner, pointing out to many variables and deploying notions. These included a possible passive-investment bubble, the deceleration of the global market because of a supply-demand imbalance, and possibly damaging aftermath of this continuing (yet paused) US-China trade warfare.

2020/07/14. US Dow Jones Industrial Average index forecast for next months and years.

Dow Jones forecast for July 2020.
The forecast for the beginning of July 25735. Maximum value 26639, while minimum 23270. The averaged index value for month 25100. Index at the end 24755, change for July -3.8%.

DJIA forecast for August 2020.
The forecast for the beginning of August 24755. Maximum value 25241, while minimum 22383. The averaged index value for month 24048. Index at the end 23812, change for August -3.8%.

Dow Jones forecast for September 2020.
The forecast for the beginning of September 23812. Maximum value 25498, while minimum 22612. The averaged index value for month 23994. Index at the end 24055, change for September 1.0%. Read more

Dow Jones Forecast For 2020 And 2021

This Dow Jones forecast for 2020 and 2021 relies on our 2 major indicators: Treasury prices as well as the Russell 2000. The first one states that’danger on’ is currently returning to markets, another one was’risk-on’ is starting as soon as the Russell 2000 index crosses 1625 points.
Based on the components within this guide we conclude that the likelihood of stock markets moving greater in 2020 and 2021 is large. Our Dow Jones forecast is bullish for 2020 and 2021. This implies that we can reasonably anticipate returns in stock markets.
We strongly recommend readers to subscribe to our free newsletter as we will be publishing those high potential multi-baggers we identify in 2020.
Our prediction to the Dow Jones is bullish for 2020 and 2021! We predict a peak to 32,000 points at the Dow Jones in 2020 and the index will rise further in 2021.
What we are interested in is to understand whether the stock bull market is the place to be spent in for 2020 and 2021. We want to be invested in bull market trends, and this will be helped with by the Dow Jones forecast.
As said before we’re watching out of markets that eventually become a multi-bagger in 6 to 9 months time. We dedicated earlier Forecasting The 3 Top Opportunities Per Year Becomes InvestingHaven’s Mission. We can know in which way to look for all these returns that are extraordinary if we get the level tendency.

The Psychology of Contrarian Investors

Posted on 01/06/2023 by Yanis P.

A contrarian investor focuses on the facts and not the noise

We are going to use the precious metals to illustrate some of the Psychological principles of being a Contrarian investor. Keep in mind that most contrarian investors are not real contrarians but fall under the category of Fashion contrarians.

Contrarian investing is based on taking a position that is opposite to that of the masses. In general contrarian, investors get in an investment too early as their analysis is based on doing the opposite of the masses. In contrast mass psychology dictates that you wait for the emotion to hit a boiling point, euphoria or panic before a position is taken. Mass psychology involves the actual study of what the masses are doing as opposed to just determining that their current action is wrong and using that information to take a position in the opposite direction.

A contrarian Investor takes a position that is contrary to the Masses

Contrarians only take a position that is contrary to the masses and that about wraps up the ideology of being a contrarian today. Very few of today’s contrarians are true contrarians; they fall into the category of fashion contrarians.

Investors that adopt the doctrine of mass psychology correctly look for something more. Mass psychology takes the principle of contrarian investing and then pushes it to the next level.

Mass psychology focuses on extreme situations

Students of Mass Psychology look for extreme type situations. In other words, sentiment should not just be bullish before an opposing strategy is put into play, it should be at the boiling point and only then will the student of mass psychology look for an exit and attempt to take an opposing position to that of the masses. To illustrate this point, we will use the following example.

The commodities sector has several components to it, two of them being the Gold and Silver. Throughout 2002 and early 2003, the hate and disgust for both these sectors were extremely high. Fast forward to 2004 and Gold was being mentioned everywhere; even CNBC had a little ticker that stated what the price of Gold was throughout the day. The hate or disgust for both these sectors was no longer there, and even though both these sectors have a long way to go before the masses fully embrace them, they did not provide a psychological basis for taking an opposing position to that of the masses in 2004.

Gold went on to soar to untold heights, heights that most would have deemed impossible in 2003. All along the way we continually stated that Gold would continue to trade higher and higher until 2011. We warned our subscribers to bail out of Gold very close to the top.

A Contrarian Investor pays close attention to what the masses are doing

Even though the masses have still not fully embraced Gold, this concept does not matter in the long run. A more important criterion would be to find out what % of investors has taken positions in these sectors or not. Next one would try to find out what the Gold bugs (the most bullish individuals ever created on earth) are doing. If all the Gold bugs are bullish, then based on the contrarian rules of investing you should take a contrary to a neutral position because all the individuals in your group are now optimistic.

Do not pay attention to the masses; they know not what they are doing when it comes to investing

Should one care what the masses are doing that much or focus on the Gold bugs (the group) that are emotionally tied up with Gold? The masses in general, will not embrace Gold fully until it becomes fashionable and by then a large portion of the Bull Run will be a thing of the past. In the last Gold Bull Run, the masses did not even know what was going on, let alone take a position in this sector.

So one measure would be to determine if all the people who believe in Gold have already taken positions if they have then the market has become saturated. The only way the market can continue its upward run is for momentum players to jump on the bandwagon. These players have very short time spans of concentration, and thus, they jump in and out very fast. Once they decide to bail out the corrective phase could be very painful as was the case of precious metals topped out in 2011. The housing collapse and internet bubble serve as two stark reminders of what happens once momentum has run its course.

A Good Contrarian Investor understand the core principles of Mass Psychology

Mass psychology is the constant analysis of the playing field to determine how the game is being played. Are the rules changing, are the players become more aggressive or docile, is the playing field soft, rocky or worse yet on extremely high and treacherous ground. One has to take measures at different levels and then compare it the pattern you have already established from past observations.

In this sense, mass psychology is dynamic compared to the methodology most contrarians put into play. Contrarians do not measure their position relative to those of other contrarians; they only measure their position relative to that of the masses, and therefore, they fail to obtain a vital piece of data. This usually results in pain, misery and taking on substantial losses In, other words; they do not measure the intensity of emotion in their camp.

The gold bugs are a classic example of contrarian investing gone wrong. They moved from the Euphoric phase to the having found religion period, to the gnashing of teeth and pure misery phase, as they watched Gold plunge from 1800 ranges down to the 1000 ranges. They still cannot fathom why this happened, especially as trillions of more dollars have been created since 2011.

The Internet boom lasted one-year longer after all the TA and contrarian indicators were in the extremely bearish zones. Euphoria for this sector was running sky-high. If one had shorted the markets based on these contrarian factors only one would have lost one’s pants and well as underwear. In other words, you would have most likely lost a small fortune.

Gold bugs should have banked some of their profits. Instead, they continued to plough money into Gold, and as it pulled back, they jumped in joy and added even more. Once the correction moved from the mild to the wild phase, they panicked and started to pray. Today the sentiment is almost as bearish as it was in 2003. From a long term perspective, a great buying opportunity could be at hand.

Be A true Contrarian Investor and not a fashion contrarian

Most so-called contrarians were caught flat-footed when the Equity markets mounted this huge rally from Oct 2004. Their contrarian indicators suggested that taking a short or neutral position was the right thing to do. Only 10% of the investors can win at any given time. The moment the number surges past this level (no matter what side of the fence they are on contrarian or the masses side); the markets will adjust to bring this ratio back to its norm.

Investing based on psychology amounts to not only taking a position against the masses but also against the fashion contrarians. Once sentiment has reached the boiling point, one should go into cash; risk takers can consider shorting the markets. Finally, less attention is being given to the precious metals sector, so establishing a position now could be viewed as a prudent long term investment.

On the same token, most investors and experts expected the Market to Crash after Trump won and we stated that it would create a buying opportunity just as Brexit did. In fact, since 2013 we have been stating that a stock market crash was a long way in the making and that all strong pullback should be viewed through a bullish lens.

Published courtesy of the Tactical Investor

Will Bitcoin Crash Chart

Posted on 01/04/2023 by Yanis P.

Will Bitcoin Crash or Backbreaking Correction? (Bitcoin Crash Chart)

The dot.com insanity experienced a backbreaking amendment before the market launched and beat out toward the finish of 1999. The picture below represents that Bitcoin likewise experienced such an adjustment, but since of the expansive finish move it has all the earmarks of being only a blip. Tactical Investing amounts to combining Technical analysis with Mass psychology creating a system that is second to none. The Trend Indicator is an example of such a system.

It combines the most important aspects of Mass psychology with the best of Technical analysis to yield a system that identifies the trend in advance of the event. Our technical indicators also enable us to identify crucial turning points in the market accurately.

Think about that from a high of 2977 (June 10, 2017); it dropped to a low of 1808 set on the fifteenth of July 2017; it shed generally 40% in that brief period (shown by the green box). Everybody recognizes what pursued.

Depressed people tend to depress everyone around them, however it keeps an eye on Pay’s all around inadequately over the long haul

It looks horrid, the media is siphoning apocalypse type situations, solid bulls are appearing of shortcoming, and even contrarian investing specialists are beginning to break. Unadulterated Contrarian Investors are more intelligent than the majority, yet they do have imperfections; the most astute financial specialists are the ones that put the standards of mass brain science into play.

They watch the mass outlook, and they comprehend that notwithstanding when dread begins to crawl into the condition, they are constrained to make this inquiry: Was the group in a condition of elation when the market beat out? On the off chance that the appropriate response is “no”, at that point regardless of how horrendous the image may look, the end amusement is that the group is being set up for a bogus descending move. Furthermore, the ordinary reaction would “why”. Basic answer, this is a propelled type of Pavlovian preparing.

The Bitcoin Crash Chart resembled the Tulip Bubble, it was a trick from the earliest starting point. The ones that made the cash were the ones that got in first, the ones that got in late were given their heads on a stinky tin platter. Never get into a speculation when the majority are euphoric, purchase when there is blood in the lanes and the other way around.

Financial exchange crashes are diverse as they don’t speak to one segment, so it is simply an issue of time before the business sectors will return to the standard. From a mass brain research point of view, financial exchange crashes are only long haul purchasing openings. Disregard the what occurs if the securities exchange crashes situation, and spotlight on what you would do if stocks you were biting the dust to possess before are currently selling for pennies on the dollar.

Pavlovian Type Training Is Being Used On The Masses

At the point when the market puts in a base subsequent to encountering a backbreaking remedy, and after that proceeds to mount an amazing rally; the group engraves the accompanying information in their brains. Purchase the pullback, since it is a phony snare to drive us out; they likewise begin to have confidence in the accompanying mantra “the more grounded the pullback, the better the chance”. Next time when the Market puts in a best, bullish slant will remain bizarrely high, and that will be the notice to understudies of Mass Psychology that the genuine skull pulverizing revision is en route. Once more, we point you toward the not very far off Bitcoin stupendous buyer advertise and the similarly fabulous accident. From low to high Bitcoin attached 11,000% in increases and the majority still expected that the main bearing it could exchange was up. When it bested the Bitcoin swarm was past overjoyed.

Concerning whether the bitcoin crash is finished, we trust that one should hold up somewhat longer before bouncing in and in every way that really matters, Bitcoin chart is exceptionally far-fetched to test the 20,000 territories for quite a while. On the drawback, bitcoin is probably going to test the 3000 territories with a conceivable overshoot to the 2,500 territories before a significant base grabs hold. Right now, there are numerous different stocks that look fascinating and unmistakably more appealing than bitcoin, for instance, PG, MRK, TCEHY, and so on.

Courtesy of Tactical Investor

Rate of Inflation not an issue according to Bond Market

Posted on 01/03/2023 by Yanis P.

The Bond market is Indicating that The Rate of Inflation is not an issue in 2017

Bonds should have continued to plunge, but notice that bonds bottomed in April and have started to trend higher. After the July rate hike, bonds should have taken out their April lows, but they did not. Instead, they went on to put in a series of higher lows; higher lows are usually indicative of higher prices. Furthermore, the stock market hardly reacted to the last rate hike; after a very mild reaction, it has continued to trend higher.

We tend to focus more on the technical and psychological outlook, and both are indicating that inflation is still not an issue. The Gold market is also indicating that inflation is not an issue. Last July Gold traded past $1400; at that time rates were lower and the US dollar was trading at higher levels. But today rates are higher today, and the dollar is trading lower than it was in 2016, but Gold instead trading at or above $1400 can’t even trade above $1300 for a sustained period.

Mass Psychology seems to support the theory that US inflation is not a big problem

The psychological factor does not support higher prices; the economy is not doing well as the consumer is not spending wildly. Consumer confidence is increasing, but consumer spending is not marching in tandem with consumer confidence. Income growth is weak; the rise in incomes and net worth has primarily benefited high income and high net worth households. These are the same individuals that have the most money invested in the stock market which has tripled since its March 2009 lows.

We have listed a plethora of factors that illustrate that inflation is not an issue; at least not yet.

Even James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve of St Louis went seems to be in agreement

“Low inflation has been the major surprise of the era,”

He also went on to state that he was still waiting for inflation to return to the 2% ranges and would not support any increases in the Fed’s benchmark rate until 2018 to allow inflationary forces to recover. He might have to wait a lot longer than that. AI and technology, in general, are going to continue to fuel lower prices. The retail sector is in freefall; the remaining players battle it out, and price wars will continue for the foreseeable future. Food prices are going to plunge due to the price war that new entrants like Lidl and Amazon have triggered.

The bond market is not supporting the higher inflationary outlook, in fact by all measures the bond market appears to be building momentum to trend higher.

US Jobs Report misses the mark

The unemployment rate edged up to 4.4% and wages barely grew. Only 156,000 jobs were added as opposed to the 180,000 consensus number.

The retail sector continued to get hammered; retailers shed 9,00 jobs, while the public sector shed another 9000 jobs.

“In months where there are anomalies like this, we look at the three-month average, which is 185,000,” said Michael Gapen, chief United States economist at Barclays. “The labor market is healthy, but we still have the conundrum that solid employment gains haven’t translated into faster wage growth.”

One wild card in the second half of 2017 will be gasoline prices. The surge following Hurricane Harvey’s devastation in Texas will leave less money for consumers to spend on other goods and services.

“For the economy, it’s steady as she goes, but for the markets, it’s Goldilocks,” said Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank, referring to the not-too-hot, not-too-cold August payroll increase. NY Times

The markets are holding up well and trending higher as we stated they would all along in 2016 and now in 2017. Until the sentiment turns bullish the markets are expected to trend higher.