What happens if the stock market crashes?

stock market crashes

The stock market has been a popular investment avenue for individuals and organizations for many years. Despite its popularity, many experts continue to make predictions about when the stock market is going to crash, and these predictions have often proven to be wrong. In fact, going back to the Tulip bubble in the 1600s, the history of the stock market is filled with examples of experts who claimed to know when the market would crash, yet they were consistently incorrect.

One of the reasons why experts continue to make these incorrect predictions is because the stock market is inherently unpredictable. Market crashes are usually caused by a combination of factors, such as changes in government policies, geopolitical events, economic downturns, and unexpected developments in technology. It is difficult, if not impossible, for anyone to predict when and how these factors will come into play. As a result, predictions about the stock market’s future are often based on speculation and intuition, rather than sound analysis.

Another reason why experts get it wrong is that they often overlook the market’s underlying strength. Despite its volatility, the stock market has proven to be resilient over the long term, and has consistently delivered returns to investors who are willing to hold onto their investments for the long haul. This resilience is due in part to the market’s ability to absorb shocks, recover from downturns, and continue to grow, even during times of economic turbulence.

From a bullish perspective, a stock market crash can be seen as a buying opportunity. During a market crash, prices of stocks often fall dramatically, and investors who are willing to take advantage of the dip can buy high-quality stocks at a lower price. Over time, as the market recovers, these stocks are likely to appreciate in value, delivering substantial returns to the investor.

On the other hand, a contrarian perspective would argue that a stock market crash is a sign of systemic problems in the economy. During a market crash, investors are usually panicked, and they tend to sell their stocks, causing prices to fall even further. This creates a vicious cycle, as investors become increasingly pessimistic and sell even more of their stocks, causing prices to fall even more. A contrarian would argue that a market crash is not a buying opportunity, but rather a sign that it’s time to get out of the market and wait for better times.

In conclusion, while experts continue to make predictions about when the stock market will crash, their track record has been consistently poor. The stock market is inherently unpredictable, and its resilience over the long term suggests that it’s often wise to ignore the noise and focus on building a diversified portfolio that is well-positioned to withstand short-term turbulence. Whether a market crash is seen as a buying opportunity or a warning sign will depend on the perspective of the investor, but it is important to understand that, over the long term, the stock market has proven to be a reliable investment vehicle for those who are willing to be patient and stick to their investment plan.

Pray tell, in these times of economic turmoil and financial insecurity, it seems as though the masses are quick to bemoan the stock market and its tumultuous ways. Yet, it is often the case that such bearishness proves to be unwarranted, for as the great sage Warren Buffett has oft stated, the markets are a veritable guarantee to rise in the long term.

And so, even as the specter of market crashes looms large, the astute investor must not be swayed by the rabble’s fearmongering. Nay, rather one should view these tempests as opportunities to buy quality stocks at a discounted price. For, when the masses are in a state of panic and selling off, the wise investor takes advantage, backed by the knowledge that the central bankers of the world shall not let the markets falter for long.

Indeed, look around and observe the various stimulus programs being announced. Money shall continue to flood the markets, and the fear of the masses shall be assuaged. So, embrace the corrections, good sir or madam, for they shall bring bountiful opportunities for those who have the foresight to see it.


Ah, but let us not forget, amidst all the uncertainty and turmoil, that a market crash can be a rare and wondrous opportunity for those with the mettle to seize it! For when the masses panic and sell off their stock in a frenzied haste, the astute investor sees not Chaos and despair, but a veritable feast of bargains and opportunities waiting to be claimed!

Indeed, as the smoke clears and the dust settles, the shrewd investor calmly approaches the market, seeking out the gems that have been cast aside by the masses in their blind panic. And as they fill their portfolios with these undervalued treasures, they bask in the knowledge that they have outmanoeuvred their less insightful counterparts and emerged from the crash not merely unscathed, but richer for the experience.

So, let the market crash if it must! For those with a contrarian spirit and an unwavering faith in their own instincts, it is but a minor bump in the road, an obstacle to be overcome on the path to riches and success!

Achieving Financial Goals with Intelligent Investing Strategies

Intelligent Investing

Intelligent investing strategies seek to minimize risk and maximize returns through the use of thoughtful, data-driven approaches. These strategies aim to make informed decisions based on a deep understanding of market trends, economic indicators, and other relevant factors, rather than relying on gut feelings or emotional reactions.

One popular approach to intelligent investing is value investing, which seeks to identify undervalued stocks that have the potential to grow in the future. This approach is based on the idea that stocks are priced based on their earnings potential, and that by identifying stocks that are trading at a lower price relative to their earnings, investors can achieve higher returns over the long-term.

Another intelligent investing strategy is factor investing, which seeks to identify and invest in stocks that have certain characteristics, such as high dividend yields or strong momentum. This approach is based on the idea that these characteristics are indicative of future stock performance and can be used to generate higher returns.

Additionally, intelligent investing strategies often involve the use of modern technology and data analysis, such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, to identify market trends and make informed investment decisions. By utilizing these cutting-edge tools, investors can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the market and make better-informed decisions.

Intelligent investing strategies aim to provide investors with a disciplined, data-driven approach to the stock market, helping them to minimize risk and maximize returns over the long-term. By utilizing a combination of value investing, factor investing, and modern technology, investors can achieve success and achieve their financial goals

Covid 19 deaths in US: Is The Media telling the Truth

Covid 19 deaths in US: Is The Media telling the Truth

Consider the following data and decide for yourself

  • Over 22K people will die today from hunger; this is probably one of the most horrible of ways to die

  • 110K have died so far from this year’s flu, and roughly 650K die a year from respiratory-related diseases

  • 70K mothers have already died this year giving birth

  • They have been over 242K suicides this year

  • 1.7 million children under the age of five have died this year http://bit.ly/32wVaQA

  • 1.25 million people die every year in road crashes https://bit.ly/2vId4UJ

  • more than 270K pedestrians die each year https://bit.ly/2QEW7BN

  • 88K will die from alcohol-related causes only in the USA https://bit.ly/2QEW7BN

  • 22K Brits will die because of prescriptions mix-ups https://bit.ly/2QDMm6U

  • Between 250K to 440K will die as a result of medical errors in America https://cnb.cx/33DF9cg

  • two decades worth of analysis reveals that over 100K Americans will die because of taking prescription drugs. A recent study states that the figure is close to 128K. https://bit.ly/39cYtOw

  • This article from the NCBI database states that 100K Americans died as a result of medical errors, and it’s dated 1999. https://bit.ly/3dxoRGy

  • 68.5K Americans died from drug overdoses in 2018 https://cnn.it/2xhpEL6

We have not mentioned Cancer, smoking and cardiovascular diseases, all of which kill millions per year. What about the innocent children dying every day? They don’t matter. What’s shocking is that the other viruses that were deadlier did not even receive the same amount of attention. When all the above data is taken into consideration, the COVID 19 deaths in the US, while serious is nothing we should be panicking over.

Don’t focus only on the number of deaths but look at the mortality rate and then compare it to that of COVID-19.

Let’s take a closer look at the situation in the U.S. and New York

USA and world COVID data

The U.S. is finally ramping up testing, and hopefully, every state starts to open up drive through testing centres like N.Y. New York finally decided to emulate South Korea. Based on the above figures, the overall death rate for the U.S. across all age groups is 3 percent, a far cry from the gloom and doom all the self-appointed experts have been laying out. Several thousand children under the age of five will die today, and yet no one declares an emergency for those poor children who are completely defenceless.

Let’s zoom in to New York the epicentre USA only COVID data

Given all doom and gloom projections, the death rates in California should be higher than in New York. New York is an anomaly because the Governor and the mayor were asleep at the wheel and a large number of deaths were reported from nursing homes. However, despite over 670K individuals in California being infected with COVID, the mortality rate is only 1.8%. The overall death rate across of all age groups in South Korea now stands at 1.7% based on the latest data obtained from worldmeters.com and it’s quite comparable to that of California.

interesting COVID data table

So pray do tell, where do these experts, including the governor and mayor of NYC, get off by issuing such gloomy forecasts. Taking action is one thing but fostering an atmosphere that is driven by fear is not the way to deal with such a situation.

China has ended the lockdown so that has to be viewed through a bullish lens and they continue to spray neighbourhoods with disinfectants to knock out the coronavirus. Even Indonesia is doing this, and we suspect a host of other nations will follow suit. Why are America and the rest of the West not adopting a similar strategy? It seems that Asian countries are leading the way in terms of taking a novel approach when it comes to dealing with this virus.




None of the data at hand supports the outrageous claims many officials and experts are putting forth. While the COVID 19 deaths in the US are trending upwards, they don’t even come close to matching the death rate of cancer, smoking, cardiovascular-related deaths, etc.

New York City, which is now the epicentre for America, has a remarkably low death rate. The media and duly elected officials should be broadcasting this information all over the place, to show the crowd that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. However, they seemed fixated on broadcasting only one side of the picture.

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Politics and Technology

politics and technology

China speeds ahead of U.S. as quantum race escalates, worrying scientists

U.S. and other Western scientists voice awe, and even alarm, at China’s quickening advances and spending on quantum communications and computing, revolutionary technologies that could give a huge military and commercial advantage to the nation that conquers them. The concerns echo — although to a lesser degree — the shock in the West six decades ago when the Soviets launched the Sputnik satellite, sparking a space race. In quick succession, China in recent months has utilized a quantum satellite to transmit ultra-secure data, inaugurated a 1,243-mile quantum link between Shanghai and Beijing, and announced a $10 billion quantum computing center. “To me, what is alarming is the level of coordination of what they’ve done,” said Christopher Monroe, a physicist and pioneer in quantum communication at the University of Maryland. Full Story

Another confirmation that China is destined to be new the powerhouse and will probably hold this title for over 100 years after it moves to the top spot. China has focussed on developing trade; their second focus has been their military as they are primarily merchants at heart. They are going to win this battle for one reason; at the end of the day, they are going to have the biggest purse. As the saying goes “money talks and BS walks.


Xi Tells Zuckerberg and Cook China’s Set for ‘Unprecedented’ Reform

Chinese President Xi Jinping used a meeting with Facebook Inc. founder Mark Zuckerberg and Apple Inc. CEO Tim Cook to announce that his nation is embarking on reform with “unprecedented determination and vigor.”

Less than a week into his second five-year term at the helm of the world’s second-largest economy, Xi’s remarks may underscore a shift toward loosening of restrictions on doing business in China. The nation is “willing to work with the U.S.,” Xi said, according to an official Xinhua report, adding that he’s looking forward to President Donald Trump’s visit next week.

Though use of Facebook’s social networking platform is blocked in China, the leadership from Xi down have increased pledges to open up to foreign companies across the economy. Xi was speaking at an event with overseas members of the Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management advisory board on Monday.

“China is willing to work with the US, to take a long-term perspective, care for each other’s mutual interests, and appropriately handle disagreements and contradictions,” Xi said. “We have an optimistic attitude toward the prospects for China-U.S. relations.” Full Story

This is the trend we have been speaking off for a while and which we just addressed in the last interim update. Asia led by China will move and more towards the direction of free markets and freedom, while the US will and the West will seek to restrain the populace.

The New Silk Road will go through Syria

Take what happened this past Sunday in Beijing. The China-Arab Exchange Association and the Syrian Embassy organized a Syria Day Expo crammed with hundreds of Chinese specialists in infrastructure investment. It was a sort of mini-gathering of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), billed as “The First Project Matchmaking Fair for Syria Reconstruction”.

And there will be serious follow-ups: a Syria Reconstruction Expo; the 59th Damascus International Fair next month, where around 30 Arab and foreign nations will be represented; and the China-Arab States Expo in Yinchuan, Ningxia Hui province, in September.

Amid the proverbial doom and gloom pervading all things Syria, the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune sometimes yield, well, good fortune.

Take what happened this past Sunday in Beijing. The China-Arab Exchange Association and the Syrian Embassy organized a Syria Day Expo crammed with hundreds of Chinese specialists in infrastructure investment. It was a sort of mini-gathering of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), billed as “The First Project Matchmaking Fair for Syria Reconstruction”.

And there will be serious follow-ups: a Syria Reconstruction Expo; the 59th Damascus International Fair next month, where around 30 Arab and foreign nations will be represented; and the China-Arab States Expo in Yinchuan, Ningxia Hui province, in September.

Qin Yong, deputy chairman of the China-Arab Exchange Association, announced that Beijing plans to invest $2 billion in an industrial park in Syria for 150 Chinese companies.

Nothing would make more sense. Before the tragic Syrian proxy war, Syrian merchants were already incredibly active in the small-goods Silk Road between Yiwu and the Levant. The Chinese don’t forget that Syria controlled overland access to both Europe and Africa in ancient Silk Road times when, after the desert crossing via Palmyra, goods reached the Mediterranean on their way to Rome. After the demise of Palmyra, a secondary road followed the Euphrates upstream and then through Aleppo and Antioch.

Beijing always plans years ahead. And the government in Damascus is implicated at the highest levels. So, it’s not an accident that Syrian Ambassador to China Imad Moustapha had to come up with the clincher: China, Russia and Iran will have priority over anyone else for all infrastructure investment and reconstruction projects when the war is over. Full Story

Read this story in Detail for it provides some of the reasons of why America has lost its place in the Middle East and why Syria was Russia’s red line in the sand.  Most importantly, it reveals how strong the relationship between China and Russia is and why these two nations are set to dominate the world stage for decades to come.


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Technology: UBS cut workforce – RBI repo rate unchanged – UPS improved productivity

Technology: UBS cut workforce - RBI repo rate unchanged - UPS improved productivity

Technology could help UBS cut workforce by 30 percent: CEO in magazine

ZURICH (Reuters) – Swiss bank UBS <UBSG.S> could shed almost 30,000 workers in the years ahead due to technological advances in the banking industry, Chief Executive Sergio Ermotti said in a magazine interview.

Ermotti told Bloomberg Markets that “process-oriented” companies see scope to cut workforces in half through new technology but he believed the true number for banks was around half that. “If you look at UBS, we employ a meaningful amount of people— almost 95,000, including contractors,” Ermotti said. “You can have 30 percent less, but the jobs are going to be much more interesting jobs, where the human content is crucial to the delivery of the service.”

Ermotti said the coming decade would be heavily influenced by technology, as the previous one was marked by regulation.

“It’s not the Big Bang; it’s going to be very gradual,” he said. “But you’re going to be faster — much more efficient, proficient. Instead of serving 50 clients, you’ll be able to serve 100 and in a more sophisticated way.”

Consultancy Accenture <ACN.N> said in May that three-quarters of bankers surveyed believed artificial intelligence (AI) will become the primary way banks interact with their customers within the next three years. Full Story

Another one bites the dust; it’s quite interesting that as soon as we stated that the trend had changed concerning AI and human Jobs; story after story has emerged indicating how fast this trend is gaining traction. At least 40% of today’s companies could end up being irrelevant in as little as ten years


RBI keeps repo rate unchanged but frees up more liquidity

The Reserve Bank of India held its policy rate steady near seven-year lows on Wednesday after inflation surged, but still looked to prop up the cooling economy by spurring banks into lending more.

The decision to keep the repo rate at 6.00 percent had been widely expected, with all but three of 60 analysts polled by Reuters predicting the RBI would stand pat after cutting the rate by 25 basis points (bps) in August. But in a concession to the weakening economy, which is growing at its slowest pace in over three years, policymakers surprised markets by taking steps to release more liquidity into the financial system.

The RBI said it would lower the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) — the amount of bonds that banks must set aside with the central bank — by 50 bps to 19.50 percent from mid-October. It had lowered the ratio by the same amount in June. Full Story

If you look around, central bankers are talking tough, but they are all talk and no action. The Majority of central banks from Japan to South Africa are an opting to leave rates unchanged. We wonder why? Well not really, as we have been stating all along, that anyone with a pea for a brain realises that this economic recovery is as bogus as they come. Remove the easy money and the glorious recovery vanishes.

The Philippines just joined the club of central bankers that see no reason to raise rates.

Philippine central bank Governor Nestor Espenilla said contained inflation means there isn’t a need to increase interest rates in the near term. “Right now there is no need to move policy rates looking at the inflation outlook,” Espenilla said in Washington where he was attending the annual International Monetary Fund meetings. “It might be too much of an anticipation to say we will raise interest rates at the next review.” Full Story



UPS CEO: Thanks to automation, we’re shipping more packages with the same number of people

The upcoming holiday period is shaping up to be another record-breaking shipping season. In fact, United Parcel Service (UPS) forecasts 750 million packages will be delivered between Black Friday and New Year’s Eve, a 5% increase from last year.

Despite the expected increase in volume, UPS expects to hire the same number of temporary seasonal workers as last year (95,000).

“Last year we hired about the same number of people and we’re doing it this year with an extra 5% of packages and it is because of automation,” UPS CEO David Abney told Yahoo Finance. Full story

Another confirmation that many jobs will cease to exist in the very near future; a day is going to dawn where individuals with an IQ that’s lower than 100 are going to find it almost impossible to land a decent job in developed nations.

US market live data chart and commentaries

US market live dataUS market live trend

Through a difficult patch and this is not something new, however when it occurs, it seems like it is a brand-new event and the very first thing crops to mind is the term “fear” because the experts are claiming it is different this time.

They would talk less and do more if they understood what they talked about; being a bear is dangerous, for in the future US market constantly tendency higher. Now attempt to see the fantastic depression, “Black Monday” .etc.

If you have a look at all those”ends of the world occasions” closely, they are blips in an otherwise massive upward tendency.  There are always likely to be days, weeks and sometimes weeks when the markets are coming down, but ultimately the US market has trended in 1 direction which is”up”.

By viewing these disaster type events via a lens that was bullish, massive fortunes were produced. In addition, we have Mass Psychology and the Trend Indicator on our side, both of which signify that this downtrend at most could turn out be the backbreaking correction we spoke of recently. Every Bull Market experiences at one and 90% of the traders assume that this event marks the beginning of a trend.


US market live: Focus on Truth And Not Imagination

Take one event that most recalls, the fantastic Recession. Even if you mistimed your entrance and began to open positions before the Dow had bottomed, you would be sitting on massive gains today.

Panic should be seen via a lens that was squishy now that we are in the age of forever QE (Quantitative Easing) and above all remember when this sell-off started that the masses weren’t euphoric. There’s a time to sell, and that time appears when the masses are in a state of bliss.

When the markets sell-off, it means there will be plenty of chances, so an individual should build a list of stocks that they always wished to purchase. US market always returns to the mean and hence the saying the larger the deviation from the mean the greater the opportunity. History clearly attests that finally, the market trends in one direction only (upward).

US Market: 2021 Predictions and Projections

The Dow Jones prediction, NASDAQ prognosis and S&P predictions continue to be rosy regardless of the rocketing COVID 19 diseases in California, Texas and Florida.

A wave or the outbreaks is terrifying and upsetting Television commentators and investors it does not seem like the market wishes to slow down for the interest of this Corona Virus. Shore kids and the rioters put an attack on the nation together in hopes of shutting down the market, but it does not seem it will get the job done.

Of the indicators were down about 1 percent at the end of today, Tuesday, July 7th after yesterday that is climbing. It seems like an answer to rising COVID 19 diseases in a brand new record along with California yesterday. Nevertheless, instances have dropped from Florida.

Are superspreaders able to replicate exactly what they did last week’s bunch? Or is that the subversive threat in check? Investors Assurance and sentiment that the next shutdown will not occur isn’t 100.

He is referring to a secular bull market in which the S&P could attain 4000.

That has not occurred, although now a motion projected. Rather, all indicators are up 1 hour to trading. The inadequate excellent stock market predictions, even for a single day beforehand are alarming.

With $3 Trillion injected to the market and stimulation expected with more companies reopening, there is a reason for optimism at the stock markets.


2020 US Stock Market Predictions

It is an election year it’s probably the administration will do what it can to keep the decade-long bull run, ” said Ryan Grace, chief market strategist for dough, a Chicago-based brokerage company. ”

I had expected more volatility heading into the election,” he said. “I really don’t find these current below-average levels in volatility being more sustainable.
There’s a close record short position in the volatility futures now and most of us know how that ended last time in February of 2018.”

Global Economic Slowdown Could ContinueGrace said he doesn’t see a breakout in yields throughout the curve that appears to be the telephone every year.”We are
Not from the woods yet regarding the ongoing global economic downturn,” he said. “China continues to slow, there are indications that the U.S. the economy is slowing and there’s no resolution to the transaction deal yet.”

The trade war remains the biggest issue facing shareholders, but”with markets where they are now, it seems most are optimistic there is a settlement coming,” Grace said. “The real details of the bargaining thing China can buy more agricultural goods and that is fantastic for the U.S. farmers, but it does not solve any of the more structural issues that got us here in the first place.” Federal Reserve May Should Be More AccommodativeWhile the Federal Reserve, the central bankers who vote on the future of interest, has said it plans to be on hold unless something changes in the market, there’s a possibility it might happen, Grace explained.”

US market forecast for next 3 months

Is this overall recovery likely to last in the summer? That raises another question, and that’s exactly what factors are most likely to affect markets throughout the next 3 weeks?
On its face, this doesn’t appear likely to encourage a stock-market recovery. Back in April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced: “As a consequence of the pandemic, the international market is projected to contract aggressively by 3 percent in 2020, considerably worse than during the 2008-09 fiscal meltdown.

In a baseline situation — that presumes the pandemic fades at the next half 2020 and containment attempts could be slowly unwound — the international market is projected to rise by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic action normalises, aided by coverage assistance.”

But as you could be thinking the 2021 figure doesn’t seem too bad. What’s our small stock-market rally doomed? One is that enormous amounts of bandwidth have been pumped to attempt and stabilise markets and there is. Not yet, although that service will be pulled. Rally. As a stock market crash could foretell an economic downturn, an uptrend can signal recovery. By instinct, investors and many traders prefer to walk the bright side of the road.

The lender sees the benchmark index closing annually at 3,000 – approximately 2% greater than its Friday near 2,930 – since the coronavirus hazard fades and the market stinks. Together with looming threats dragging the index at the end of the summer to 2,400 However, Goldman’s prediction reflects a drawback to its goal. The stock market’s recent surge in late-March lows is best attributed to some”fear of falling out”; mindset among investors, and doubt concerning the rally’s power stay, Goldman added.


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Buffett Indicator 2019 Is Predicting a Stock Market Crash: Pure Nonsense

Buffett Indicator 2019

The Stock Market is going to Crash; that’s the rubbish experts want you to believe 

One jackass (oops we mean expert) after another, has been predicting that a Stock Market Crash is coming.  The problem is that these brain surgeons have been making this argument for so long it almost sounds like the definition of insanity. Insanity boils down to doing the same thing over and over again and hoping for a new outcome. These predictions are so off the mark that they make a broken clock look fantastic which happens to be right once or twice a day depending on whether you follow military time or not.

Some Experts point out that Warren Buffet is betting on a Stock Market Crash

This claim is based on the fact that Buffett is sitting on $86 billion in cash. They use this information to create the illusion that this Buffett Indicator 2019 is predicting a stock market crash.

To us, this seems like the ramblings of an insane individual. Just because Warren Buffett is sitting on billions of cash does not mean he is waiting for the market to crash. He is probably waiting for a good deal; that’s all.

Some might point out that it’s the biggest hoard of cash the company has ever built up and that this indicates that Buffett is nervous. Being nervous does not equate to betting on a stock market crash. Buffett is a valuable player and he is looking for a deal, so correction not crash might be all he is waiting for.

Buffett Does not believe stocks are overpriced; hence he is not expecting a stock market crash

While Buffett agrees the market can go through a period of turbulence, he stated that   “no one can tell you when these traumas occur.”

“American business—and consequently a basket of stocks—is virtually certain to be worth far more in the years ahead. Innovation, productivity gains, entrepreneurial spirit and an abundance of capital will see to that,” Buffett said.

Bottom Line Buffett would view these pullbacks that could range from mild to extreme as buying opportunities and so do we.

In a recent article, Buffett stated that stocks were on the cheap side; one does not make a comment like this if one believes the stock market is going to crash

The Buffett Indicator of 2019 Is Predicting a Stock Market Crash theory is not valid based on Market Sentiment

This market is unlike any other market; it has moved from being the most hated bull market to the most insane bull market (fanaticism stock market crash) of all time. In such an environment technical analysis is technically trash and fundamentals are fundamentally flawed. In fact, for the most part, market technicians have no idea of what they are talking about; they figure that by studying someone else theory or drawing squiggly lines on some chart they can decipher the market.

We have dealt with at least 15 so-called expert technicians who claimed to have found the Holy Grail; in the end, their theory was full of holes and could not account for sudden and rapid trend changes. Technical’s do not drive the markets, and neither do fundamentals; emotions drive the market. Understand the emotion, and you can identify the trend. Identify the trend, and you can determine the primary direction of the market. If the trend is up, then you don’t need to worry about crashes or correction; the market will not crash when the primary trend is up. It will, however, experience corrections, all of which will prove to be buying opportunities until the trend changes.

Simple, prudent money management skills will protect your profits and reduce your losses.  Fundamental analysis is even worse; at least technical analysis can be useful when combined with sentiment analysis. Fundamentals boil down to pouring over standard data, and you are usually looking at what happened and not what will happen. We will not spend more time on that topic as in our opinion fundamental analysis is in today’s markets is a total waste of time.

The NASDAQ achieved a very important milestone and does not support a Stock Market Crash Scenario

NASDAQ stock market crash

Experts almost always fall into the category of “all talk but no action.”

What many experts fail to understand is that a bull market starts only after the old high has been taken out. Until that occurs, it’s not a real bull market. In that sense, the NASDAQ bull has just started. For over 15 years the NASDAQ struggled to overcome this hurdle. Jack in the box is what comes to mind; so like a coiled spring, it is ready to trade a lot higher before it breaks down.  The NASDAQ has already broken past the psychologically (contrarian investing) significant 6000 level, so the odds are fair to high that it should roughly double from its breakout point; a move to the 9000-10,000 ranges might appear insane now. Experts would have felt the same way if someone told them that the Dow would be trading past 21K after it dropped below 7,000 in 2009.

Don’t expect the upward journey to be smooth; the higher the Nasdaq trades, the more volatile the ride will be. In the interim, it would not surprise us if the Nasdaq eventually dropped down to the 5200-5400 ranges with a possible overshoot to 5,0000 before testing 6700.

The Crowd is Nervous Proving that Stock Market crash Mantra is Not Valid

Sentiment continues to paint a fascinating picture as it indicates that for the 1st time in decades the crowd is not driven by panic or euphoria.They are uncertain, and uncertainty is the 1st stage of fear, indicating that the markets are a very long way off from hitting the Euphoric zone.

Overall, looking at the situation from a mass psychology perspective what we stated in 2014, 2015 and 2016, continues to hold; this bull market could end up running a lot higher than the most ardent of bulls could ever envision. It has already caught some of the most ardent of bulls by surprise; some of them even turned negative this January.

Tactical Investor Stock Market Chart

Tactical Investor Anxiety Index

54% of Americans Have $0 Invested in Stocks 

Furthermore, according to CNN most Americans are not investing in the stock market

“I have a little bit in my checking [account], a little bit in my savings,” Coomer, a grandma of three who still works 55 hours a week at the gas station, told CNNMoney. Coomer is part of over half of America that has $0 invested in the stock market, as research reports and surveys have found. One survey from Bankrate found that 54% of Americans have no money in the stock market.

That means no money in pension funds, 401(k) retirement plans, IRAs, mutual funds or ETFs. “For the majority of the people here, the stock market is something interesting to look at,” says Chuck Caudill, general manager of the local newspaper, The Beattyville Enterprise.

Therefore until the masses embrace the market, this bull will trend a lot higher as the only way the top players can bank their paper profits is to unload these shares onto the unsuspecting masses.  Many would point out that the masses are broke.  Banks and various lending clubs are already offering unsecured personal loans ranging from $2,000 all the way to $100,000. However, we expect the rates to drop even further but more importantly supportive documentation requirements will be dropped to a bare minimum.  We will move back to the era of Liar Loans

Two factors invalidate the Buffett Indicator Is Predicting a Stock Market Crash Hypothesis

A back breaking correction needs at least two elements; the masses should be euphoric, and the market needs to be trading in the extremely overbought ranges. At the moment, the market satisfies only one of these conditions. A small wave of selling will propel the masses into the hysteria zone, which will create a mouth-watering opportunity. Markets don’t crash when the masses are in disarray; they crash when the crowd is jumping up with Joy.  The experts will probably confuse the next correction for a crash, but what can one expect from individuals who have been on the wrong side of this Bull market since its inception.

Naysayers are trying to Con the Masses into Believing a Stock Market Crash is around the Corner

This Video Illustrates How the Crowd is manipulated: Fear Mongers love to sell Stock Market Crash and other Doomsday scenarios.  Misery Loves Company so don’t fall for the nonsense that the Buffett indicator is predicting a stock market Crash mumbo jumbo prediction. Instead, try to view stock market crashes as buying opportunities for until Fiat is eliminated the markets will always trend upwards.

Published courtesy of the Tactical Investor

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Bear Market nonsense: Experts want you to think Markets are Going to Crash 

Bear Market

Are We headed for A Bear Market

The stock market crash story is getting boring and annoying to a large degree. Since 2009, there has been a constant drumbeat of the market is going to crash stories. In 2009, many experts felt that the market had rallied too strongly and that it needed to pull back strongly before moving higher up.  They were calling for 15%-20% correction.

Ten years later and most of them are still waiting for this so-called strong correction or crash. A stock market crash is a possibility but the possibility is not the same thing as certainty, and this is what seems to elude most of the naysayers. One day they will get it right as even a broken clock is correct twice a day.  In the interim waiting for this stock market crash has cost these experts a fortune, both in lost capital gains and actual booked losses if they shorted this market.

Bear Market nonsense: Experts want you to think Markets are Going to Crash

It’s 2017, and the markets are overbought, and we agree that they need to let out some steam, but as for a crash that will only occur when sentiment turns bullish. The crowd has not embraced this market and until they do corrections but not crashes is what we should expect.  In fact, we penned an article titled “Dow Could Trade to 30K But not before This Happens”, where we discussed the possibility of the Dow trading to 30k before it crashes.  The one factor that could alter this outlook would be for the masses to turn bullish suddenly.

This market will experience a spectacular crash one day; nothing can trend upwards forever and eventually the market has to revert to the mean.  Markets never crash on a sour note; the crowd is chanting in joy when the markets suddenly change direction.  A simple look at previous bubbles will prove this; the housing bubble, for example, did not end on a note of fear; the crowd was ecstatic.  Even the Tulip bubble that lasted from 1634-1637 ended on a note of extreme joy.

Jim Rogers states that the next crash will be the worst one we have seen in our lifetimes.

We’ve had financial problems in America — let’s use America — every four to seven years, since the beginning of the republic. Well, it’s been over eight since the last one. This is the longest or second-longest in recorded history, so it’s coming. And the next time it comes — you know, in 2008, we had a problem because of debt. Henry, the debt now, that debt is nothing compared to what’s happening now.

In 2008, the Chinese had a lot of money saved for a rainy day. It started raining. They started spending the money. Now even the Chinese have debt, and the debt is much higher. The federal reserves, the central bank in America, the balance sheet is up over five times since 2008. It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime — my lifetime too. Be worried Business Insider  

In a broad manner of speaking, he is right, but the proverbial question as always is “when”; so far the naysayers have missed the mark by 1000 miles. This entire rally has been based on the fact that the Fed artificially propped the markets by keeping rates low for an insanely long period and infusing billions of dollars into the markets. One day the pied piper is going to collect but as we have stated over and over again over the years, that until the masses embrace this market, a crash is unlikely. A strong correction is, however, a certainty; it’s just a matter of time.

This stock market bull has defied every Bear market call

The market has defied every call, and even some of the most ardent of bulls are now nervous; we stated this would occur over two years ago.   The Market has put in over 36 new highs this year and is living up to the new name we gave it late in 2016.  Up to that point, we referred to this market as the most hated bull market of all time; after that, we started to refer to this market as the most Insane Stock Market Bull of all time. Insanity by definition has no pattern so expect this market to do things no other market has ever done before.

A Bear Market is a certainty but the question is when 

We are using the word correction and not crash for until we start seeing non-stop headlines for Dow 35K,  and the overall sentiment turns bullish, the markets are unlikely to crash.  Sentiment analysis reveals that the crowd is still either uncertain or bearish when it comes to the stock market.

Investor sentiment negative

The article of interest: What every investor should know about the Dow theory?

From a technical basis, the markets are extremely overbought. However, markets can remain irrational for a lot longer than most players can remain solvent. An overbought market does not mean that the market is ready to crash. Take a look at the stock NVDA; the stock has been trading in the overbought ranges for over two years, and instead of crashing, it has continued to trend higher.


Bear Market and stock market crash outlook

The market will crash one day, and it will probably be quite a spectacular crash as this market has soared to stunning heights. The main driving force behind this massive move has been and still is hot money. However, we have continuously stated that this bull market would not crash until the masses embraced it. In 2016 we informed our subscribers that the Dow was getting ready to trade to 21K; this target was hit within three months.  The Dow went on to trade to 22K and sentiment is far from bullish.  History indicates that markets always crash on a note of euphoria. Instead of worrying about a future crash, why not put in a few common sense measures that could reduce your risk but also allow you to profit from this bull market

  • Take some money off the table when you position is showing healthy gains
  • Implement trailing stops
  • Put some money into safe haven investments like Gold
  • Monitor the masses; bull markets have never ended on a sour note

On a separate note, Gold is holding up fairly well, and as long as it does not trade below 1250 on a weekly basis, it has a good chance of testing the 1360-1380 ranges with a possible overshoot to 1400.

Don’t fixate on the crash factor; instead look for great stocks you would like to own. When the market eventually corrects, you will be in a position to pick up top players at a great price.

Is a Bear Market a possibility?

Yes it is but so is death; nobody sits around worrying about that event every single day, do they?

Posted courtesy of the Tactical Investor

Identifying Market Trends

Market Trends

Identifying Market Trends: Jump in Before the Masses do 

A new trend can begin that is based on fake news or false data to create the illusion all is well. Remember that the truth or lies are just a matter of perception. One person will swear that he is telling the truth, while another will swear that he is lying. From an observer’s perspective, both are correct.

They are convinced of their position, so all you will do is waste your time and energy trying to sway them. Instead, you are better of letting them battle it out, while you sit down and take a look at the real events that are unfolding, most of which the masses are oblivious too. The main principle of trend investing is not to focus on the noise factor but to pay attention to the “reality factor”. In other words, trend investing focuses on what is going on minus the morality or judgemental angle.

 The  observer’s perspective to Identifying Market Trends 

Personal views are on par with toilet paper regarding their relevance in determining trends. Oh, by the way, we also include ourselves into the equation. This is why we do not voice our personal opinions as nothing will change, and if we let our personal opinions cloud our judgement, then the ability to look at the situation objectively is lost.

Over time it gets easier and easier to do this, and then one day you wake up, and it is almost like breathing. Practice makes perfect, and there is no better time to start than today for tomorrow never comes. Today is the tomorrow you dreamed of starting something new yesterday but never did and most likely never will.   If you want to spot new trends you can’t allow your emotions to do the talking; once you emotions talk, logic goes out the window and stupidity

Keep Your Emotion in Check when Identifying Market Trends

In order to spot new trends one should not allow one’s  emotions to do the talking; once your emotions take over, your logic goes out the window and stupidity is in charge of the situation.  This is the first principle you need to muster before you can develop the ability to spot new trends.

A Trend in Motion Is unstoppable 

Whether you and I agree with it or whether it is morally right or wrong is irrelevant. Nothing can stop a trend in motion. This bull market is a perfect example of fake news driving a new trend; all the data imaginable has been manipulated to create the illusion that the economy is doing well. If we had allowed our personal opinions to dictate the way we trade, then like all the fools out there we would have missed the biggest bull run of all time.

Trend investing provides you with the opportunity to see the real picture as opposed to the one the mass media forces you to focus on. The idea is to sell when the masses are dancing and buy when they are nervous.

The trend is your Friend

Trend investing states that the trend is your friend, everything else is your foe. Mass Psychology clearly states that the crowds always oppose the trend and as a result, they are always on the losing end of a trade.

Posted courtesy of the Tactical Investor

Despised Bull Market Will Continue to Trend Higher

Despised Bull Market Will Continue to Trend Higher

The Most hated bull Market is not ready to drop dead 

Throughout this bull-run, a plethora of reasons has been laid out to indicate why this bull should have ended years ago. Mind you most of those reasons are valid, but that is where the bucket stops. Being right does not equate to making money on Wall Street. In fact, the opposite usually applies.  The Fed recreated all the rules by flooding the markets with money and creating and maintaining an environment that fosters speculation.

So why is this the most hated Bull Market

The reason this is the most hated bull market in history is because there is nothing logical reason to justify it.  In the 2008-2009 volume on the NYSE was in the 8-11 billion ranges and sometimes it surged to 12 billion. Before that, every year, the volume continued to rise, this indicates market participation. From early 2010 volume just vanished, it dropped to the 2-3 billion ranges and even lower on some days.   Hence, all market technicians and students of the markets assumed that the markets would tank as markets cannot trend higher on low volume and that is where they erred.

Share buybacks  are pushing this bull Market higher

We were and still are in a new paradigm, just as the US uses shell companies or brokerages to mask their trades in the US, they employ the same trick in overseas markets.   The US government stepped in and started to support the market directly that is why volume dropped so dramatically. However as there were no sellers, the markets drifted upwards. Later on, they got the corporate world in on the scam.   They set up the environment that propelled corporations to buy back their shares by borrowing money for next to nothing and then using this trick to inflate their EPS, without doing any work or even increasing the profitability of the company. Mass Psychology states that the masses are destined to lose; do not follow the crowd for they will always lead you

Mass Psychology states that the masses are destined to lose; do not follow the crowd for they will always lead you astray.In between a few minor corrections were allowed to transpire almost all of which took place on ever lower volume, to create the illusion that there was some semblance of free market forces at play.

Dark Pools could be contributing to Hated bull Market Run

We also have something known as Dark Pools, this, in essence, allows big companies to purchase large blocks of shares without the trade showing up on the NYSE or any other major exchanges. In essence, it gives the government an avenue to manipulate the markets without actually leaving a footprint.  As the US can print as much money as it wants, this is a perfect backdrop to do whatever it wants.  By the way, don’t believe the hogwash that our debt is only 18.9 trillion.  There is no real mechanism in place to check how much money the US creates.  Nobody is allowed to audit the Feds books.

How to handle this Hated bull Market

The Fed is hell bent on forcing everyone to speculate, and that is why we have moved into the next stage of the currency war games and the era of negative interest rates.  Negative rates will eventually force the most conservative of players to take their money out of the banks and speculate.  This process will be akin to another massive stimulus and will provide the bedrock for another huge rally.

Make a list of stocks that you would like to own and use strong pullbacks to add to or open new positions in.  Some examples are OA, AMZN, BABA, GOOG, CALM, CHL, etc.

Published courtesy of the Tactical Investor