Politics and Technology

politics and technology

China speeds ahead of U.S. as quantum race escalates, worrying scientists

U.S. and other Western scientists voice awe, and even alarm, at China’s quickening advances and spending on quantum communications and computing, revolutionary technologies that could give a huge military and commercial advantage to the nation that conquers them. The concerns echo — although to a lesser degree — the shock in the West six decades ago when the Soviets launched the Sputnik satellite, sparking a space race. In quick succession, China in recent months has utilized a quantum satellite to transmit ultra-secure data, inaugurated a 1,243-mile quantum link between Shanghai and Beijing, and announced a $10 billion quantum computing center. “To me, what is alarming is the level of coordination of what they’ve done,” said Christopher Monroe, a physicist and pioneer in quantum communication at the University of Maryland. Full Story

Another confirmation that China is destined to be new the powerhouse and will probably hold this title for over 100 years after it moves to the top spot. China has focussed on developing trade; their second focus has been their military as they are primarily merchants at heart. They are going to win this battle for one reason; at the end of the day, they are going to have the biggest purse. As the saying goes “money talks and BS walks.

 

Xi Tells Zuckerberg and Cook China’s Set for ‘Unprecedented’ Reform

Chinese President Xi Jinping used a meeting with Facebook Inc. founder Mark Zuckerberg and Apple Inc. CEO Tim Cook to announce that his nation is embarking on reform with “unprecedented determination and vigor.”

Less than a week into his second five-year term at the helm of the world’s second-largest economy, Xi’s remarks may underscore a shift toward loosening of restrictions on doing business in China. The nation is “willing to work with the U.S.,” Xi said, according to an official Xinhua report, adding that he’s looking forward to President Donald Trump’s visit next week.

Though use of Facebook’s social networking platform is blocked in China, the leadership from Xi down have increased pledges to open up to foreign companies across the economy. Xi was speaking at an event with overseas members of the Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management advisory board on Monday.

“China is willing to work with the US, to take a long-term perspective, care for each other’s mutual interests, and appropriately handle disagreements and contradictions,” Xi said. “We have an optimistic attitude toward the prospects for China-U.S. relations.” Full Story

This is the trend we have been speaking off for a while and which we just addressed in the last interim update. Asia led by China will move and more towards the direction of free markets and freedom, while the US will and the West will seek to restrain the populace.

The New Silk Road will go through Syria

Take what happened this past Sunday in Beijing. The China-Arab Exchange Association and the Syrian Embassy organized a Syria Day Expo crammed with hundreds of Chinese specialists in infrastructure investment. It was a sort of mini-gathering of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), billed as “The First Project Matchmaking Fair for Syria Reconstruction”.

And there will be serious follow-ups: a Syria Reconstruction Expo; the 59th Damascus International Fair next month, where around 30 Arab and foreign nations will be represented; and the China-Arab States Expo in Yinchuan, Ningxia Hui province, in September.

Amid the proverbial doom and gloom pervading all things Syria, the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune sometimes yield, well, good fortune.

Take what happened this past Sunday in Beijing. The China-Arab Exchange Association and the Syrian Embassy organized a Syria Day Expo crammed with hundreds of Chinese specialists in infrastructure investment. It was a sort of mini-gathering of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), billed as “The First Project Matchmaking Fair for Syria Reconstruction”.

And there will be serious follow-ups: a Syria Reconstruction Expo; the 59th Damascus International Fair next month, where around 30 Arab and foreign nations will be represented; and the China-Arab States Expo in Yinchuan, Ningxia Hui province, in September.

Qin Yong, deputy chairman of the China-Arab Exchange Association, announced that Beijing plans to invest $2 billion in an industrial park in Syria for 150 Chinese companies.

Nothing would make more sense. Before the tragic Syrian proxy war, Syrian merchants were already incredibly active in the small-goods Silk Road between Yiwu and the Levant. The Chinese don’t forget that Syria controlled overland access to both Europe and Africa in ancient Silk Road times when, after the desert crossing via Palmyra, goods reached the Mediterranean on their way to Rome. After the demise of Palmyra, a secondary road followed the Euphrates upstream and then through Aleppo and Antioch.

Beijing always plans years ahead. And the government in Damascus is implicated at the highest levels. So, it’s not an accident that Syrian Ambassador to China Imad Moustapha had to come up with the clincher: China, Russia and Iran will have priority over anyone else for all infrastructure investment and reconstruction projects when the war is over. Full Story

Read this story in Detail for it provides some of the reasons of why America has lost its place in the Middle East and why Syria was Russia’s red line in the sand.  Most importantly, it reveals how strong the relationship between China and Russia is and why these two nations are set to dominate the world stage for decades to come.

 

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Technology: UBS cut workforce – RBI repo rate unchanged – UPS improved productivity

Technology: UBS cut workforce - RBI repo rate unchanged - UPS improved productivity

Technology could help UBS cut workforce by 30 percent: CEO in magazine

ZURICH (Reuters) – Swiss bank UBS <UBSG.S> could shed almost 30,000 workers in the years ahead due to technological advances in the banking industry, Chief Executive Sergio Ermotti said in a magazine interview.

Ermotti told Bloomberg Markets that “process-oriented” companies see scope to cut workforces in half through new technology but he believed the true number for banks was around half that. “If you look at UBS, we employ a meaningful amount of people— almost 95,000, including contractors,” Ermotti said. “You can have 30 percent less, but the jobs are going to be much more interesting jobs, where the human content is crucial to the delivery of the service.”

Ermotti said the coming decade would be heavily influenced by technology, as the previous one was marked by regulation.

“It’s not the Big Bang; it’s going to be very gradual,” he said. “But you’re going to be faster — much more efficient, proficient. Instead of serving 50 clients, you’ll be able to serve 100 and in a more sophisticated way.”

Consultancy Accenture <ACN.N> said in May that three-quarters of bankers surveyed believed artificial intelligence (AI) will become the primary way banks interact with their customers within the next three years. Full Story

Another one bites the dust; it’s quite interesting that as soon as we stated that the trend had changed concerning AI and human Jobs; story after story has emerged indicating how fast this trend is gaining traction. At least 40% of today’s companies could end up being irrelevant in as little as ten years

 

RBI keeps repo rate unchanged but frees up more liquidity

The Reserve Bank of India held its policy rate steady near seven-year lows on Wednesday after inflation surged, but still looked to prop up the cooling economy by spurring banks into lending more.

The decision to keep the repo rate at 6.00 percent had been widely expected, with all but three of 60 analysts polled by Reuters predicting the RBI would stand pat after cutting the rate by 25 basis points (bps) in August. But in a concession to the weakening economy, which is growing at its slowest pace in over three years, policymakers surprised markets by taking steps to release more liquidity into the financial system.

The RBI said it would lower the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) — the amount of bonds that banks must set aside with the central bank — by 50 bps to 19.50 percent from mid-October. It had lowered the ratio by the same amount in June. Full Story

If you look around, central bankers are talking tough, but they are all talk and no action. The Majority of central banks from Japan to South Africa are an opting to leave rates unchanged. We wonder why? Well not really, as we have been stating all along, that anyone with a pea for a brain realises that this economic recovery is as bogus as they come. Remove the easy money and the glorious recovery vanishes.

The Philippines just joined the club of central bankers that see no reason to raise rates.

Philippine central bank Governor Nestor Espenilla said contained inflation means there isn’t a need to increase interest rates in the near term. “Right now there is no need to move policy rates looking at the inflation outlook,” Espenilla said in Washington where he was attending the annual International Monetary Fund meetings. “It might be too much of an anticipation to say we will raise interest rates at the next review.” Full Story

 

 

UPS CEO: Thanks to automation, we’re shipping more packages with the same number of people

The upcoming holiday period is shaping up to be another record-breaking shipping season. In fact, United Parcel Service (UPS) forecasts 750 million packages will be delivered between Black Friday and New Year’s Eve, a 5% increase from last year.

Despite the expected increase in volume, UPS expects to hire the same number of temporary seasonal workers as last year (95,000).

“Last year we hired about the same number of people and we’re doing it this year with an extra 5% of packages and it is because of automation,” UPS CEO David Abney told Yahoo Finance. Full story

Another confirmation that many jobs will cease to exist in the very near future; a day is going to dawn where individuals with an IQ that’s lower than 100 are going to find it almost impossible to land a decent job in developed nations.

US market live data chart and commentaries

US market live dataUS market live trend

Through a difficult patch and this is not something new, however when it occurs, it seems like it is a brand-new event and the very first thing crops to mind is the term “fear” because the experts are claiming it is different this time.

They would talk less and do more if they understood what they talked about; being a bear is dangerous, for in the future US market constantly tendency higher. Now attempt to see the fantastic depression, “Black Monday” .etc.


If you have a look at all those”ends of the world occasions” closely, they are blips in an otherwise massive upward tendency.  There are always likely to be days, weeks and sometimes weeks when the markets are coming down, but ultimately the US market has trended in 1 direction which is”up”.

By viewing these disaster type events via a lens that was bullish, massive fortunes were produced. In addition, we have Mass Psychology and the Trend Indicator on our side, both of which signify that this downtrend at most could turn out be the backbreaking correction we spoke of recently. Every Bull Market experiences at one and 90% of the traders assume that this event marks the beginning of a trend.

 

US market live: Focus on Truth And Not Imagination

Take one event that most recalls, the fantastic Recession. Even if you mistimed your entrance and began to open positions before the Dow had bottomed, you would be sitting on massive gains today.

Panic should be seen via a lens that was squishy now that we are in the age of forever QE (Quantitative Easing) and above all remember when this sell-off started that the masses weren’t euphoric. There’s a time to sell, and that time appears when the masses are in a state of bliss.

When the markets sell-off, it means there will be plenty of chances, so an individual should build a list of stocks that they always wished to purchase. US market always returns to the mean and hence the saying the larger the deviation from the mean the greater the opportunity. History clearly attests that finally, the market trends in one direction only (upward).

US Market: 2021 Predictions and Projections

The Dow Jones prediction, NASDAQ prognosis and S&P predictions continue to be rosy regardless of the rocketing COVID 19 diseases in California, Texas and Florida.

A wave or the outbreaks is terrifying and upsetting Television commentators and investors it does not seem like the market wishes to slow down for the interest of this Corona Virus. Shore kids and the rioters put an attack on the nation together in hopes of shutting down the market, but it does not seem it will get the job done.

Of the indicators were down about 1 percent at the end of today, Tuesday, July 7th after yesterday that is climbing. It seems like an answer to rising COVID 19 diseases in a brand new record along with California yesterday. Nevertheless, instances have dropped from Florida.

Are superspreaders able to replicate exactly what they did last week’s bunch? Or is that the subversive threat in check? Investors Assurance and sentiment that the next shutdown will not occur isn’t 100.

He is referring to a secular bull market in which the S&P could attain 4000.

That has not occurred, although now a motion projected. Rather, all indicators are up 1 hour to trading. The inadequate excellent stock market predictions, even for a single day beforehand are alarming.

With $3 Trillion injected to the market and stimulation expected with more companies reopening, there is a reason for optimism at the stock markets.

 

2020 US Stock Market Predictions

It is an election year it’s probably the administration will do what it can to keep the decade-long bull run, ” said Ryan Grace, chief market strategist for dough, a Chicago-based brokerage company. ”

I had expected more volatility heading into the election,” he said. “I really don’t find these current below-average levels in volatility being more sustainable.
There’s a close record short position in the volatility futures now and most of us know how that ended last time in February of 2018.”

Global Economic Slowdown Could ContinueGrace said he doesn’t see a breakout in yields throughout the curve that appears to be the telephone every year.”We are
Not from the woods yet regarding the ongoing global economic downturn,” he said. “China continues to slow, there are indications that the U.S. the economy is slowing and there’s no resolution to the transaction deal yet.”

The trade war remains the biggest issue facing shareholders, but”with markets where they are now, it seems most are optimistic there is a settlement coming,” Grace said. “The real details of the bargaining thing China can buy more agricultural goods and that is fantastic for the U.S. farmers, but it does not solve any of the more structural issues that got us here in the first place.” Federal Reserve May Should Be More AccommodativeWhile the Federal Reserve, the central bankers who vote on the future of interest, has said it plans to be on hold unless something changes in the market, there’s a possibility it might happen, Grace explained.”

US market forecast for next 3 months

Is this overall recovery likely to last in the summer? That raises another question, and that’s exactly what factors are most likely to affect markets throughout the next 3 weeks?
On its face, this doesn’t appear likely to encourage a stock-market recovery. Back in April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced: “As a consequence of the pandemic, the international market is projected to contract aggressively by 3 percent in 2020, considerably worse than during the 2008-09 fiscal meltdown.

In a baseline situation — that presumes the pandemic fades at the next half 2020 and containment attempts could be slowly unwound — the international market is projected to rise by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic action normalises, aided by coverage assistance.”

But as you could be thinking the 2021 figure doesn’t seem too bad. What’s our small stock-market rally doomed? One is that enormous amounts of bandwidth have been pumped to attempt and stabilise markets and there is. Not yet, although that service will be pulled. Rally. As a stock market crash could foretell an economic downturn, an uptrend can signal recovery. By instinct, investors and many traders prefer to walk the bright side of the road.

The lender sees the benchmark index closing annually at 3,000 – approximately 2% greater than its Friday near 2,930 – since the coronavirus hazard fades and the market stinks. Together with looming threats dragging the index at the end of the summer to 2,400 However, Goldman’s prediction reflects a drawback to its goal. The stock market’s recent surge in late-March lows is best attributed to some”fear of falling out”; mindset among investors, and doubt concerning the rally’s power stay, Goldman added.

 

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Buffett Indicator 2019 Is Predicting a Stock Market Crash: Pure Nonsense

Buffett Indicator 2019

The Stock Market is going to Crash; that’s the rubbish experts want you to believe 

One jackass (oops we mean expert) after another, has been predicting that a Stock Market Crash is coming.  The problem is that these brain surgeons have been making this argument for so long it almost sounds like the definition of insanity. Insanity boils down to doing the same thing over and over again and hoping for a new outcome. These predictions are so off the mark that they make a broken clock look fantastic which happens to be right once or twice a day depending on whether you follow military time or not.

Some Experts point out that Warren Buffet is betting on a Stock Market Crash

This claim is based on the fact that Buffett is sitting on $86 billion in cash. They use this information to create the illusion that this Buffett Indicator 2019 is predicting a stock market crash.

To us, this seems like the ramblings of an insane individual. Just because Warren Buffett is sitting on billions of cash does not mean he is waiting for the market to crash. He is probably waiting for a good deal; that’s all.

Some might point out that it’s the biggest hoard of cash the company has ever built up and that this indicates that Buffett is nervous. Being nervous does not equate to betting on a stock market crash. Buffett is a valuable player and he is looking for a deal, so correction not crash might be all he is waiting for.

Buffett Does not believe stocks are overpriced; hence he is not expecting a stock market crash

While Buffett agrees the market can go through a period of turbulence, he stated that   “no one can tell you when these traumas occur.”

“American business—and consequently a basket of stocks—is virtually certain to be worth far more in the years ahead. Innovation, productivity gains, entrepreneurial spirit and an abundance of capital will see to that,” Buffett said.

Bottom Line Buffett would view these pullbacks that could range from mild to extreme as buying opportunities and so do we.

In a recent article, Buffett stated that stocks were on the cheap side; one does not make a comment like this if one believes the stock market is going to crash

The Buffett Indicator of 2019 Is Predicting a Stock Market Crash theory is not valid based on Market Sentiment

This market is unlike any other market; it has moved from being the most hated bull market to the most insane bull market (fanaticism stock market crash) of all time. In such an environment technical analysis is technically trash and fundamentals are fundamentally flawed. In fact, for the most part, market technicians have no idea of what they are talking about; they figure that by studying someone else theory or drawing squiggly lines on some chart they can decipher the market.

We have dealt with at least 15 so-called expert technicians who claimed to have found the Holy Grail; in the end, their theory was full of holes and could not account for sudden and rapid trend changes. Technical’s do not drive the markets, and neither do fundamentals; emotions drive the market. Understand the emotion, and you can identify the trend. Identify the trend, and you can determine the primary direction of the market. If the trend is up, then you don’t need to worry about crashes or correction; the market will not crash when the primary trend is up. It will, however, experience corrections, all of which will prove to be buying opportunities until the trend changes.

Simple, prudent money management skills will protect your profits and reduce your losses.  Fundamental analysis is even worse; at least technical analysis can be useful when combined with sentiment analysis. Fundamentals boil down to pouring over standard data, and you are usually looking at what happened and not what will happen. We will not spend more time on that topic as in our opinion fundamental analysis is in today’s markets is a total waste of time.

The NASDAQ achieved a very important milestone and does not support a Stock Market Crash Scenario

NASDAQ stock market crash

Experts almost always fall into the category of “all talk but no action.”

What many experts fail to understand is that a bull market starts only after the old high has been taken out. Until that occurs, it’s not a real bull market. In that sense, the NASDAQ bull has just started. For over 15 years the NASDAQ struggled to overcome this hurdle. Jack in the box is what comes to mind; so like a coiled spring, it is ready to trade a lot higher before it breaks down.  The NASDAQ has already broken past the psychologically (contrarian investing) significant 6000 level, so the odds are fair to high that it should roughly double from its breakout point; a move to the 9000-10,000 ranges might appear insane now. Experts would have felt the same way if someone told them that the Dow would be trading past 21K after it dropped below 7,000 in 2009.

Don’t expect the upward journey to be smooth; the higher the Nasdaq trades, the more volatile the ride will be. In the interim, it would not surprise us if the Nasdaq eventually dropped down to the 5200-5400 ranges with a possible overshoot to 5,0000 before testing 6700.

The Crowd is Nervous Proving that Stock Market crash Mantra is Not Valid

Sentiment continues to paint a fascinating picture as it indicates that for the 1st time in decades the crowd is not driven by panic or euphoria.They are uncertain, and uncertainty is the 1st stage of fear, indicating that the markets are a very long way off from hitting the Euphoric zone.

Overall, looking at the situation from a mass psychology perspective what we stated in 2014, 2015 and 2016, continues to hold; this bull market could end up running a lot higher than the most ardent of bulls could ever envision. It has already caught some of the most ardent of bulls by surprise; some of them even turned negative this January.

Tactical Investor Stock Market Chart

Tactical Investor Anxiety Index

54% of Americans Have $0 Invested in Stocks 

Furthermore, according to CNN most Americans are not investing in the stock market

“I have a little bit in my checking [account], a little bit in my savings,” Coomer, a grandma of three who still works 55 hours a week at the gas station, told CNNMoney. Coomer is part of over half of America that has $0 invested in the stock market, as research reports and surveys have found. One survey from Bankrate found that 54% of Americans have no money in the stock market.

That means no money in pension funds, 401(k) retirement plans, IRAs, mutual funds or ETFs. “For the majority of the people here, the stock market is something interesting to look at,” says Chuck Caudill, general manager of the local newspaper, The Beattyville Enterprise.

Therefore until the masses embrace the market, this bull will trend a lot higher as the only way the top players can bank their paper profits is to unload these shares onto the unsuspecting masses.  Many would point out that the masses are broke.  Banks and various lending clubs are already offering unsecured personal loans ranging from $2,000 all the way to $100,000. However, we expect the rates to drop even further but more importantly supportive documentation requirements will be dropped to a bare minimum.  We will move back to the era of Liar Loans

Two factors invalidate the Buffett Indicator Is Predicting a Stock Market Crash Hypothesis

A back breaking correction needs at least two elements; the masses should be euphoric, and the market needs to be trading in the extremely overbought ranges. At the moment, the market satisfies only one of these conditions. A small wave of selling will propel the masses into the hysteria zone, which will create a mouth-watering opportunity. Markets don’t crash when the masses are in disarray; they crash when the crowd is jumping up with Joy.  The experts will probably confuse the next correction for a crash, but what can one expect from individuals who have been on the wrong side of this Bull market since its inception.

Naysayers are trying to Con the Masses into Believing a Stock Market Crash is around the Corner

This Video Illustrates How the Crowd is manipulated: Fear Mongers love to sell Stock Market Crash and other Doomsday scenarios.  Misery Loves Company so don’t fall for the nonsense that the Buffett indicator is predicting a stock market Crash mumbo jumbo prediction. Instead, try to view stock market crashes as buying opportunities for until Fiat is eliminated the markets will always trend upwards.

Published courtesy of the Tactical Investor

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Bear Market nonsense: Experts want you to think Markets are Going to Crash 

Bear Market

Are We headed for A Bear Market

The stock market crash story is getting boring and annoying to a large degree. Since 2009, there has been a constant drumbeat of the market is going to crash stories. In 2009, many experts felt that the market had rallied too strongly and that it needed to pull back strongly before moving higher up.  They were calling for 15%-20% correction.

Ten years later and most of them are still waiting for this so-called strong correction or crash. A stock market crash is a possibility but the possibility is not the same thing as certainty, and this is what seems to elude most of the naysayers. One day they will get it right as even a broken clock is correct twice a day.  In the interim waiting for this stock market crash has cost these experts a fortune, both in lost capital gains and actual booked losses if they shorted this market.

Bear Market nonsense: Experts want you to think Markets are Going to Crash

It’s 2017, and the markets are overbought, and we agree that they need to let out some steam, but as for a crash that will only occur when sentiment turns bullish. The crowd has not embraced this market and until they do corrections but not crashes is what we should expect.  In fact, we penned an article titled “Dow Could Trade to 30K But not before This Happens”, where we discussed the possibility of the Dow trading to 30k before it crashes.  The one factor that could alter this outlook would be for the masses to turn bullish suddenly.

This market will experience a spectacular crash one day; nothing can trend upwards forever and eventually the market has to revert to the mean.  Markets never crash on a sour note; the crowd is chanting in joy when the markets suddenly change direction.  A simple look at previous bubbles will prove this; the housing bubble, for example, did not end on a note of fear; the crowd was ecstatic.  Even the Tulip bubble that lasted from 1634-1637 ended on a note of extreme joy.

Jim Rogers states that the next crash will be the worst one we have seen in our lifetimes.

We’ve had financial problems in America — let’s use America — every four to seven years, since the beginning of the republic. Well, it’s been over eight since the last one. This is the longest or second-longest in recorded history, so it’s coming. And the next time it comes — you know, in 2008, we had a problem because of debt. Henry, the debt now, that debt is nothing compared to what’s happening now.

In 2008, the Chinese had a lot of money saved for a rainy day. It started raining. They started spending the money. Now even the Chinese have debt, and the debt is much higher. The federal reserves, the central bank in America, the balance sheet is up over five times since 2008. It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime — my lifetime too. Be worried Business Insider  

In a broad manner of speaking, he is right, but the proverbial question as always is “when”; so far the naysayers have missed the mark by 1000 miles. This entire rally has been based on the fact that the Fed artificially propped the markets by keeping rates low for an insanely long period and infusing billions of dollars into the markets. One day the pied piper is going to collect but as we have stated over and over again over the years, that until the masses embrace this market, a crash is unlikely. A strong correction is, however, a certainty; it’s just a matter of time.

This stock market bull has defied every Bear market call

The market has defied every call, and even some of the most ardent of bulls are now nervous; we stated this would occur over two years ago.   The Market has put in over 36 new highs this year and is living up to the new name we gave it late in 2016.  Up to that point, we referred to this market as the most hated bull market of all time; after that, we started to refer to this market as the most Insane Stock Market Bull of all time. Insanity by definition has no pattern so expect this market to do things no other market has ever done before.

A Bear Market is a certainty but the question is when 

We are using the word correction and not crash for until we start seeing non-stop headlines for Dow 35K,  and the overall sentiment turns bullish, the markets are unlikely to crash.  Sentiment analysis reveals that the crowd is still either uncertain or bearish when it comes to the stock market.

Investor sentiment negative

The article of interest: What every investor should know about the Dow theory?

From a technical basis, the markets are extremely overbought. However, markets can remain irrational for a lot longer than most players can remain solvent. An overbought market does not mean that the market is ready to crash. Take a look at the stock NVDA; the stock has been trading in the overbought ranges for over two years, and instead of crashing, it has continued to trend higher.

 

Bear Market and stock market crash outlook

The market will crash one day, and it will probably be quite a spectacular crash as this market has soared to stunning heights. The main driving force behind this massive move has been and still is hot money. However, we have continuously stated that this bull market would not crash until the masses embraced it. In 2016 we informed our subscribers that the Dow was getting ready to trade to 21K; this target was hit within three months.  The Dow went on to trade to 22K and sentiment is far from bullish.  History indicates that markets always crash on a note of euphoria. Instead of worrying about a future crash, why not put in a few common sense measures that could reduce your risk but also allow you to profit from this bull market

  • Take some money off the table when you position is showing healthy gains
  • Implement trailing stops
  • Put some money into safe haven investments like Gold
  • Monitor the masses; bull markets have never ended on a sour note

On a separate note, Gold is holding up fairly well, and as long as it does not trade below 1250 on a weekly basis, it has a good chance of testing the 1360-1380 ranges with a possible overshoot to 1400.

Don’t fixate on the crash factor; instead look for great stocks you would like to own. When the market eventually corrects, you will be in a position to pick up top players at a great price.

Is a Bear Market a possibility?

Yes it is but so is death; nobody sits around worrying about that event every single day, do they?

Posted courtesy of the Tactical Investor

Identifying Market Trends

Market Trends

Identifying Market Trends: Jump in Before the Masses do 

A new trend can begin that is based on fake news or false data to create the illusion all is well. Remember that the truth or lies are just a matter of perception. One person will swear that he is telling the truth, while another will swear that he is lying. From an observer’s perspective, both are correct.

They are convinced of their position, so all you will do is waste your time and energy trying to sway them. Instead, you are better of letting them battle it out, while you sit down and take a look at the real events that are unfolding, most of which the masses are oblivious too. The main principle of trend investing is not to focus on the noise factor but to pay attention to the “reality factor”. In other words, trend investing focuses on what is going on minus the morality or judgemental angle.

 The  observer’s perspective to Identifying Market Trends 

Personal views are on par with toilet paper regarding their relevance in determining trends. Oh, by the way, we also include ourselves into the equation. This is why we do not voice our personal opinions as nothing will change, and if we let our personal opinions cloud our judgement, then the ability to look at the situation objectively is lost.

Over time it gets easier and easier to do this, and then one day you wake up, and it is almost like breathing. Practice makes perfect, and there is no better time to start than today for tomorrow never comes. Today is the tomorrow you dreamed of starting something new yesterday but never did and most likely never will.   If you want to spot new trends you can’t allow your emotions to do the talking; once you emotions talk, logic goes out the window and stupidity

Keep Your Emotion in Check when Identifying Market Trends

In order to spot new trends one should not allow one’s  emotions to do the talking; once your emotions take over, your logic goes out the window and stupidity is in charge of the situation.  This is the first principle you need to muster before you can develop the ability to spot new trends.

A Trend in Motion Is unstoppable 

Whether you and I agree with it or whether it is morally right or wrong is irrelevant. Nothing can stop a trend in motion. This bull market is a perfect example of fake news driving a new trend; all the data imaginable has been manipulated to create the illusion that the economy is doing well. If we had allowed our personal opinions to dictate the way we trade, then like all the fools out there we would have missed the biggest bull run of all time.

Trend investing provides you with the opportunity to see the real picture as opposed to the one the mass media forces you to focus on. The idea is to sell when the masses are dancing and buy when they are nervous.

The trend is your Friend

Trend investing states that the trend is your friend, everything else is your foe. Mass Psychology clearly states that the crowds always oppose the trend and as a result, they are always on the losing end of a trade.

Posted courtesy of the Tactical Investor

Despised Bull Market Will Continue to Trend Higher

Despised Bull Market Will Continue to Trend Higher

The Most hated bull Market is not ready to drop dead 

Throughout this bull-run, a plethora of reasons has been laid out to indicate why this bull should have ended years ago. Mind you most of those reasons are valid, but that is where the bucket stops. Being right does not equate to making money on Wall Street. In fact, the opposite usually applies.  The Fed recreated all the rules by flooding the markets with money and creating and maintaining an environment that fosters speculation.

So why is this the most hated Bull Market

The reason this is the most hated bull market in history is because there is nothing logical reason to justify it.  In the 2008-2009 volume on the NYSE was in the 8-11 billion ranges and sometimes it surged to 12 billion. Before that, every year, the volume continued to rise, this indicates market participation. From early 2010 volume just vanished, it dropped to the 2-3 billion ranges and even lower on some days.   Hence, all market technicians and students of the markets assumed that the markets would tank as markets cannot trend higher on low volume and that is where they erred.

Share buybacks  are pushing this bull Market higher

We were and still are in a new paradigm, just as the US uses shell companies or brokerages to mask their trades in the US, they employ the same trick in overseas markets.   The US government stepped in and started to support the market directly that is why volume dropped so dramatically. However as there were no sellers, the markets drifted upwards. Later on, they got the corporate world in on the scam.   They set up the environment that propelled corporations to buy back their shares by borrowing money for next to nothing and then using this trick to inflate their EPS, without doing any work or even increasing the profitability of the company. Mass Psychology states that the masses are destined to lose; do not follow the crowd for they will always lead you

Mass Psychology states that the masses are destined to lose; do not follow the crowd for they will always lead you astray.In between a few minor corrections were allowed to transpire almost all of which took place on ever lower volume, to create the illusion that there was some semblance of free market forces at play.

Dark Pools could be contributing to Hated bull Market Run

We also have something known as Dark Pools, this, in essence, allows big companies to purchase large blocks of shares without the trade showing up on the NYSE or any other major exchanges. In essence, it gives the government an avenue to manipulate the markets without actually leaving a footprint.  As the US can print as much money as it wants, this is a perfect backdrop to do whatever it wants.  By the way, don’t believe the hogwash that our debt is only 18.9 trillion.  There is no real mechanism in place to check how much money the US creates.  Nobody is allowed to audit the Feds books.

How to handle this Hated bull Market

The Fed is hell bent on forcing everyone to speculate, and that is why we have moved into the next stage of the currency war games and the era of negative interest rates.  Negative rates will eventually force the most conservative of players to take their money out of the banks and speculate.  This process will be akin to another massive stimulus and will provide the bedrock for another huge rally.

Make a list of stocks that you would like to own and use strong pullbacks to add to or open new positions in.  Some examples are OA, AMZN, BABA, GOOG, CALM, CHL, etc.

Published courtesy of the Tactical Investor

Stock Market outlook and the future of the work

Stock Market outlook and the future of the work

Stock Market Outlook: As stated in the stock market update its buddies would do anything it took to make the belief that shorting the market is a recipe for failure. The idea, as we mentioned is and was, to induce every Tom, Dick and Harry to adopt this bull. One just has to consider Monday’s actions to determine just how much they are willing to move thus, whatever crap they pump out from the information, that pullback will solve itself since the Fed and its allies will come out to drive money to the markets or directly intervene by encouraging the system.

As detailed at FAQs that are upgraded and also a term sheet, the SMCCF will buy bonds to make a bond portfolio that’s based on a broad market indicator of US bonds. This indicator consists of the bonds in the market which were issued by US firms that satisfy other standards of adulthood, along with the facility score. This indexing strategy will match the current buys of funds for the facility.

The Markets were yanking on Monday, and the Fed comes out and leaves viola and that statement. They aren’t even allowing the Dow to examine the 23K ranges. In the long run, these bears will wind up turning to bulls, and that is going to mark the conclusion of the cycle, which is accompanied with a crash, which may indicate the baby bull’s arrival. US Stock-index stocks were higher Tuesday afternoon, aiming to add to the rally of the day that President Donald Trump has been currently financing a $1 trillion infrastructure spending bundle to include more stimulus to help the economy recover from the pandemic.

We said that an infrastructure bundle would be published since the COVID pandemic has granted the ability to the Fed and the authorities. Watch the creativity here. Produce an issue and offer whilst creating the pay to offer a solution. Look they’ll create more if needed and how many trillions of dollars they’ve created over the last 7 weeks. Notice something else; lots of Folks are shedding their tasks or will. As we mentioned the most expensive element in any company is the element that is human. If you’re able to eliminate high paying jobs and continue to boost efficacy with
machines.

The effect is deflationary regardless of the inflation by generating bucks generated. The Future Of Function; It begins with distant workingThey’re pushing an increasing number of individuals to work at home. What happens next? Then why would they be in the USA In the event employees working at home do too the task? See another point they will begin talking about outsourcing those tasks or notify Americans that they must work for work or less out of a different nation for less. And this will happen on a worldwide basis. All in all, the benefactor from this activity will be parts of South America, parts of Eastern Europe and Asia.

We will expand this more. Therefore, while America will continue to flourish employees irrespective of the ranking they hold and will probably be a place, won’t fire well. At the

The era of AI, it is just also the self-employed which have and the businessman. There are exceptions, and yet another approach is to be certain to stay ahead of the learning curve; Quite simply, you are great at your work. The alternative when you’ve got a job that is fantastic would be to learn more about the idea of becoming an independent contractor; if this approach is executed 35, occasionally, the advantages can be immense.

As the money supply will continue increasing for the near future, we’re currently reaching the point at which it makes no way to concentrate on stock market crashes. For, in reality, it is a stock market crash in the event that you bought in at the top, however, it shouldn’t be regarded as a wreck but because the buying opportunity when a person began opening positions throughout the crash.

Monday’s action was confirmation that we will need to change tactics. We talked of
the in the previous two upgrades, and we’re likely to this new approach. Monday’s activity appears to affirm that it’s a waste of time to concentrate on any cycle’s crash facet.

Each stock market crash contributes to the arrival of a brand new bull market. This was the very first big-scale also the time a bull and crisis was killed before its own
time. Along with the wreck was over before it gained any traction. This action informs
intensity won’t last long and the majority of the bears will probably be captured with
Their pants were the situation with all the crash that is a coronavirus.

 

What do others think about stock market outlook and the future of the work?

Stock Market Outlook: 3 Volatile Weeks, Then Pure Excitement

The stock market is about to evolve – from guesstimate volatility to fundamental trend building. But, first, it needs to close out this quarter’s final trading days and pass through the third quarter’s startup time until it reaches…

… the morning of July 14, when DJIA lead-off JPMorgan Chase JPM -2.7% reports second quarter results, and CEO Jamie Dimon makes good on his 3-month-old promise to reveal the bank’s new strategy and outlook.

Will his comments be positive, negative or a combination? Who knows? However, what we do know is that the information will be valuable and will be based on facts, insight and wisdom. And that means investor excitement because actual business fundamentals and reasoning are reentering the stock market discussion.

Gone will be the dependence on invented “breaking news” and simplistic “analyses” based on linking trader-driven stock market moves to any coincidental tidbits lying around.
What about the elephant in the room: Covid-19?

Oh, it’ll still be with us. However, its overwhelming uncertainties in early April have greatly diminished. Today, most government, institutional and business leaders know what needs to be done, both to function effectively and to contain, if not reduce, the risk of contagion. Read more

JPMorgan’s market guru says stocks can hit new records this summer

Stocks’ price-earnings ratios remain at historic highs, but their value compared to bonds suggests a market booster could be on the horizon, Marko Kolanovic, head of macro quantitative and derivatives research at JPMorgan, said Wednesday.
Central banks’ relief programs prompted an exodus from equities and flooded the bond market with investor cash.
Yet quantitative funds’ trading algorithms are on the verge of triggering a return to the stock market as volatility eases, Kolanovic wrote in a note.
For such firms to reach their median equity exposure, they’d need to add $400 billion to the stock market. A move like that would serve as a shot-in-the-arm for stock valuations and “easily push the broad market to new highs,” the analyst added.
The market is also slated for a mass rotation from growth names to value stocks once investors reprice for weaker-than-expected coronavirus fallout, the bank said.
Visit the Business Insider homepage for more stories.

Stocks sit at historically expensive levels but not in the way that matters most, JPMorgan said Wednesday.

Price-earnings ratios remain elevated, but prices relative to bonds are the signals to watch for future market moves, Marko Kolanovic, head of macro quantitative and derivatives research at the bank, wrote in a note to clients. Stocks are currently “quite cheap” by that measure, and the dislocation is directly tied to a decline in bond yields, he added. Read more

 

Where the Stock Market Will Be in Six Months

When it comes to the future of the stock market, investors’ predictions are all over the map.

When asked where the S&P 500 Index would end the year, a fifth of respondents to a survey conducted by DataTrek Research said the benchmark will close out 2020 up more than 10% from current levels. That’s roughly the same number who predicted the index will finish down more than 10%.

“Every option from ‘really bad’ (down +10% from here) to ‘really good’ (+10%) got basically the same number of votes,” Nicholas Colas, DataTrek’s co-founder, wrote in an email. “And we’re only talking about the next six months.”
Such dispersion is perhaps understandable after the stock market’s fastest-ever fall into a bear market gave way to the quickest 50-day rally in nine decades. While investors are hopeful for a quick economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, the outlook is foggy as cases continue to rise and new risks emerge. Investors also have a wary eye on November’s U.S. presidential election and the potential for volatility around that time.

According to the survey — which attracted 341 responses from June 22 through June 28 — 48% said they expect Joe Biden to win the presidency, compared to 43% who foresee a Donald Trump victory. According to Colas, political expectations weighed heavily on investors’ general market views.

“Respondents who said they believed Trump would win were twice as likely to think U.S. equities would rally by double digits into the year-end,” Colas wrote. Read more

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Dow Jones Transportation Average

Dow Jones Transportation Average

Dow Transports Service Dow 30K Prediction?
Are trading to let some steam out. Then the Dow is very likely to undergo a pullback according to the Tactical Investor’s Dow Theory if the pullback is powerful. From the market update, 9300 to 9600 ranges’ goals were to the Dow moves. The programs (as displayed in the preceding graph ) are very likely to check the 802 into 819 ranges using a potential overshoot into the 765 into 774 ranges.

Right off the bat, we’re likely to say that we’re in favour of a much correction unless the trend varies since it will produce a purchasing chance. The chart of this transports illustrates they are currently at a zone of immunity; since the transfers are trading at the ranges around the graphs shown below, this immunity will be overcome. The transfers will need to shut on monthly basis above 11250. If they can attain this, support will be turned into by then immunity. A breakout may push this indicator up to 1800 to 2400 points greater from the zone.

Dow Jones Transportation Chart
Ranges the breakout effort by the Dow transfers is very likely to fail. The reverse is going to transpire, although this will convince everybody that the transport sector is currently going to breakdown. If the trade is transported by the Dow the likelihood of a transfer to the 9300 to 9600 will spike. If it comes to pass traders may load up on stocks in the transport sector.

The total trend is upward, and when a business is despised, it is most likely the time to
set up positions. The setup would call the Dow will follow in its footsteps and in doing so produce an excellent prospect to experience a pullback. Until the trend varies, an individual needs to ignore the impulse to fear if the market’s pullback strongly. The proposed course of action is to split out a jar of your favourite drink (alcoholic or non-alcoholic) and observe. According short-term traders can observe the 801 costs will be indicated by a violation of the zone.

Our future views on Dow Jones Transportation Average

When the utility pullback the Dow Industrials and Transports are very likely to take the exact same route and in doing so this will produce a purchasing chance that is lovely for 2020. Opinion has inched up the following 2 points and it’s nearly. Readings are well below their average of 39. Overall market sentiment is currently signalling a solid pullback needs to be seen as a chance when it comes to pass. The

Dow is trading over 28k, and the sentiment is still trading under its historic average. Simply speaking, we could conclude that year’s market activity will capture 90 per cent of specialists with their trousers down. Of the experts, even people who obtained the first portion of the bull market, are currently wearing their feelings on their sleeves. Can we understand? All one must do is pay attention? In case you’ve got a prejudice (be it governmental or politics ), your vision is clouded and consequently your own analysis.

Some readers have asked us do not brief the markets; our attention is on the long-term trend. We could guarantee that it is not Once it appears like it’s simple to assess the direction of this trend. We do not wish to be in doing so miss out on both ends and in a place where we’re stuck considering two tendencies in two different time frames. We are reminded by this of this narrative of the donkey that maintained searching for a more tasty haystack; of starvation, the fool died ultimately.

Thus, while the trend is upward, we’ll concentrate on the transactions that are extended and vice versa. Notice the market upgrade is a tool which may be employed to satisfy your requirements; hence in the event that you have time and are comfy with the market, you might do so. The very best method to decrease the risk variable when shorting the market would be to use put options; you know upfront how much you can lose.

In short, there’s absolutely no reason to fear, and when this sale continues at
this speed it will cause a monstrous purchasing occasion and this is the kicker, those who panicked will overlook it, for after fear sets in; it’s quite tough to distinguish between chance and catastrophe. Think back to 2008, also look at missed the ship since the
premise was that the markets may go lower.

Now given the intensity of the present sell-off, the markets will likely mount a rally, the very first effort usually fails, and when the history is to be reliable then when this rally fizzles out, it ought to result in another downward tide, which could take the market to fresh highs on an intraday basis.

If the pattern is sufficiently powerful, we can issue a term open the place up or put play. That is where you place with different strike rates and opens both a phone. Do not neglect to maintain a trading diary; if blood is flowing on the roads, the very time is.

 

What do others think about Dow Jones Transportation Average?

What Is the DJTA?

What Is the Dow Jones Transportation Average?

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA), sometimes simply known as the “Dow Transports” is a price-weighted average of 20 transportation stocks traded in the United States. The Dow Jones Transportation Average is the oldest U.S. stock index, first compiled in 1884 by Charles Dow, co-founder of Dow Jones & Company.

The index initially consisted of nine railroad companies and only two companies from outside the railroad industry. That is a testament to the dominance of railroads in the U.S. transportation sector in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. In addition to railroads, the index now includes airlines, trucking, marine transportation, delivery services, and logistics companies.
Key Takeaways

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) is a price-weighted average of 20 transportation stocks traded in the United States.
In addition to railroads, the index now includes airlines, trucking, marine transportation, delivery services, and logistics companies.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average is closely watched to confirm the state of the U.S. economy, especially by proponents of Dow Theory.
Changes in the DJTA are rare, and they usually only happen following a corporate acquisition or other dramatic shifts in a component’s core business.

Understanding the Dow Jones Transportation Average

Transportation is much less important to the overall stock market than it was when the DJTA was first created. However, transportation stocks can follow a different pattern than the rest of the market. Sometimes, they can help traders and investors to predict changes in the market. Read more

Why DOW Transportation Average Is Actually Pretty Good When It Comes to Stocks

The average is an everyday word. We use it without even thinking about it. We want to know the average temperature, our favourite player’s batting average, the average home price in a neighbourhood.

That got us thinking about the average stock. It is, after all, the Dow Jones Industrial Average. And it is helpful to know what Wall Street thinks average is. That way, investors can discern when Wall Street loves or hates, a stock.

The most average stocks Barron’s could identify in the S&P 500 and the Dow are FedEx and JPMorgan Chase, respectively. We had picked FedEx (ticker: FDX) as a Buy recommendation in 2019 and JPMorgan (JPM) was featured on a 2019 cover story.

But what does average mean for a stock?

For starters, the average market capitalization in the S&P 500 is about $60 billion, but the median market cap is $23 billion. The S&P is a little top-heavy. On average, 21 analysts cover an S&P stock. The average Buy-rating ratio—which is Buy recommendations divided by total recommendations—for stocks in the S&P is about 53%. The average Sell-rating ratio is about 7%. Analysts are far more likely to rate stocks they don’t recommend as Hold instead of Sell. And the average analyst price target for an S&P stock implies a gain of about 6%. Read more

Will Dow Transports Trip This Bull Market?

The bull market’s fate now rests on just 20 stocks.

I am referring to the 20 stocks that make up the Dow Jones Transportation Average. At least according to some interpretations of the venerable Dow Theory — the oldest stock market timing system that is in widespread use today –, the bull market will not be considered alive and well until this average rises above its previous all-time high.

And that’s asking a lot since the Dow Transports are 12% below that level.

Why would Dow Theorists believe that the fate of the market rests in the hands of just 20 stocks? Therein lies a long story that I told three weeks ago and will not repeat here. But, in a nutshell, Dow Theorists focus on the behaviour of both the Dow Transports and its better-known sister average, the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Bull markets are considered alive and well when both of these averages are jointly hitting new highs.

Three weeks ago these averages had their work cut out for them since both were far below their April highs. But it turns that just the Dow Industrials were up to the challenge; while last week they rose to a new intra-day record, the Dow Transports remain far behind.

If anything, in fact, they are getting even further behind. On Monday of this week, when the Dow Industrials rose slightly, the Dow Transports dropped another 155 points or 1.5%. Read more

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Fiat money and social unrest

Fiat money and social unrest

Fiat money and social unrest are interlinked, you can examine the graph below and see how the masses are becoming increasingly more competitive with time. What is the theme? Fiat currency. During all this period that the money supply has continued to rise and the net effect is that we’ve got a world that’s totally polarized. So now’s societal unrest is merely a symptom of a larger issue.

For people know that no matter hard they work they won’t have the ability to earn up to the elite. By Way of Example, the typical CEO now makes 361 times greater compared to a typical employee the typical rank-and-file employee, or cover of $13,940,000 annually, based on an AFL-CIO’s Executive Paywatch news release now. Despite the average manufacturing worker earned only $38, 613, based on Executive Paywatch. Is
that fair? And the people debt keeps growing and the typical employees share of the debt increases but their pay isn’t keeping up with inflation. Can it be any wonder that there are individuals that are disgruntled?

Fiat money and FED

Source: www.usgovernmentspending.com CEO compensation has increased 940% because 1978 typical pay of CEOs in the top 350 companies in 2018 was $17.2 million $14 million with a more conservative step. By comparison, salary for the normal employee grew by only 11.9 percent. You ruin businesses, you wreak only enough havoc to make the belief that everything is going to fall apart, but the one thing which falls apart is a different chunk of the centre to the upper-middle course; those men now join the ranks of the bad. They are currently forced to operate in sectors that cover less.

Fiat is the origin of all evil, and this hot money flood, the planet once can anticipate a huge spike in immoral behaviour and civil disease Is likely to become the new standard. Hence expect to find. So they’re focussing on the definition but the Fed is 10X more economical than it’s granted credit for. They’re smart enough to offer the
individual, with medication to protect against this disease’s signs.

The indications of inflation is an increase in costs, and this was commanded by them by just adding a certain basket of goods within their equation. The answer is evident since they can control those businesses.
That is the reason why farmers have been dumping millions of gallons of milk since they
don’t wish to reduce the price. Milk at the shop costs. What’s this? Due to the middlemen, that earn more cash. AI will alter these middlemen will be murdered, and farmers will have the ability to market their goods to supermarkets or people. While everybody call and will observe this win, guess what, it is going to be an additional force of deflation, which will enable the Feds to boost the money supply more. The Feds aren’t master chess players.

Even though we’ll have tons of inflation (rising prices), the general long-term the tendency for inflation is down, and that is because machines will continue replacing people, forcing prices to fall and enabling authorities to restrain a bigger swath of the populace. Based on the daily monster, matters will worsen, however, increasingly, lawmakers are worried that Capitol Hill’s answer to protesters’ demands for racial justice will be seriously restricted if it does not include steps to tackle another potent undercurrent of this national protests: pervading economic inequality that is left black communities supporting.

The buck by logic must fall since the Fed is pumping out crazy amounts of money, but let us not overlook that the Fed has compelled almost every other country to take the identical route. Another debate that one can make is that the US debt is too large. Well, that argument might have been created decades ago. Once on a time, the shortage was significantly less than a thousand bucks around 1901 that the debt has been 4.1 billion bucks compared, the debt of today is mad.

The cause of social anxiety

Everything comes down to view. We live in an age where the people are asleep; in a coma, they’re in actuality. As we’ve mentioned before, they are not likely to detect anything before the debt rolls the 100 trillion marks. The US dollar is currently trading at a channel creation. Notice that if Greenspan raised the money supply, rather than the dollar it jumped, so there goes the money debate that is tough.

The analysis is to imply that the buck is constructing a foundation which would be preposterous. And, that’s the reason why this prognosis is inclined to come to manoeuvre. From the interim competing monies are expected to outperform the buck in the time frames is very likely to keep on consolidating.

Having said we expect the dollar to tendency and out higher after the consolidation is finished. Let’s not overlook the health sector, especially in the industry, where AI will be employed to make a multitude of life extension treatments. Overall, the dollar
is becoming old. Regrettably, the bugs using their day at the Sun’s likelihood are slim. Way Gold past 5K and at this time, Gold trading can’t be seen by us and that can be an
Intense target. Metals, when analyzed from a long-term view will continue to trend upward allocating a percentage of the money to bullion of one is fine, but betting the house with this industry is a sign that shock treatment might be required by someone.

 

What do others think about Fiat money and social unrest?

Violent Social Unrest Ahead? History Suggests So

Neil Howe, demographer and co-authour of the book The Fourth Turning, returns to the podcast this week. In our prior interviews with him, we’ve explored his study of generational cycles (“turnings”) in America which reveal predictable social trends that recur throughout history and invariably result in transformational crisis (a “fourth turning”).

Fourth turnings are characterized by a growing demand for social order, yet supply of it remains weak. The emergence of the surveillance state, a perpetual war machine, increased intervention in failing markets by the central planners, greater government control of critical systems like health care and the Internet — all of these are classic fourth turning signs of the desperation authorities exert as they lose control.

History shows time and time again that such overreach ends in rejection of the current order, usually via violent revolution.

Now that we’re roughly halfway through the current Fourth Turning and things have really started to unravel here in 2020, we’ve asked Neil back on the program to update us on what to expect next. Read more

Fiat money by Britanica

Fiat money, in a broad sense, all kinds of money that are made legal tender by a government decree or fiat. The term is, however, usually reserved for legal-tender paper money or coins that have face values far exceeding their commodity values and are not redeemable in gold or silver.

Throughout history, paper money and banknotes had traditionally acted as promises to pay the bearer a specified amount of precious metal, typically silver or gold. The continental currency issued during the American Revolution, the assignats issued during the French Revolution, the “greenbacks” of the American Civil War period, and the paper marks issued in Germany in the early 1920s are historical examples of fiat money.

These episodes marked deviations from the gold standard or bimetallic systems that prevailed from the early 19th through the mid-20th century. Under the post-World War II Bretton Woods system, the U.S. dollar served as an international reserve currency, backed by gold at a fixed value of $35 an ounce.

By the late 20th century, it had become impossible for the United States to maintain gold at a fixed rate, and in August 1971, U.S. Pres. Richard M. Nixon announced that he would “suspend temporarily the convertibility of the dollar into gold or other reserve assets.” In fact, the move spelt the end of the Bretton Woods system and the last vestiges of the gold standard. Within two years, most major currencies “floated,” rising and falling in value against one another based on market demand. Read more

2020 Predictions on Trump, Economy, War and Unrest – Gerald Celente

Gerald Celente, a top trends researcher and Publisher of The Trends Journal, says his magazine motto is “Tomorrow’s news today.” Celente says, “We are the only magazine in the world that tells you history before it happens.”

Let’s start with what just happened to President Trump with the House of Representatives voting to impeach. Is this going to hurt or help President Trump? Celente says, “It’s going to help Trump. Obviously, the Senate is not going to convict him, and this is just a total waste of time. . . . It was not bi-partisan, and it was totally illegitimate. When it all began, we told our Trends Journal subscribers don’t pay any attention to this because it’s a waste of time and energy. There’s a whole world going on out there, and all you are going to get from the dumb U.S. media is impeachment this and impeachment that. It adds up to zero, and it’s going to help Trump.”

There are many other questions for trends researcher Celente such as will the economy hold up until the November 2020 election? Where are interest rates going, up or down? How long can the economy be propped up my massive global money printing such as what has been going on recently in the repo market? If it breaks down, when will that happen? Civil unrest is going on around the world. Will civil unrest come here to the USA?  Read more

 

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