Withdraw pension early

Withdraw pension early

Withdraw pension early: Tell Me Sweet Little Lies 

And that is how the Pension lie was conceived; continue reading to find out the details:

The world is going to end, the US dollar is going to crash, Gold will soar to the Moon, and Pigs will fly over it. Well, we added the last bit to throw in some humour. Are you not sick of the stories talking about how things are only set to worsen? If you add all the proclamations made by these so-called wise men for the past 100 years, the world as we know should have ended several times over.

The fact that it has not points out that all those wise pundits were wise only when compared to the reliable donkey.  Life is very short, and most people spend a vast amount of their time focussing on what was, what should be and what could be. How about trying a new approach; enjoy the moment, for that, is all you have.  If you have a decent roof over your head, money in the bank and food, you are infinitely better off than over 50% of the world. Let that sink in for a moment. Anything more than that pushes you, even further up the rung of well-being.

Early Pension Pitfalls: Seeking Wealth Is not Bad, But…..

At least seek it with a smile and not a frown. Enjoy the day as a child would. Have you seen how children can have so much fun with so little and how when they grow up they can’t even have half the fun despite having 10 times more?  We seek things that we are not even sure we need; the seeds were incepted starting from your first trip to the brainwashing centre (otherwise known as school), and if allowed to grow, these fears turn into gigantic monsters.

For example, each year, the experts keep stating a person needs more and more money to retire; here is the sad fact, by the time the average person retires, he/she will be a living zombie. Free thought will be a thing of the past; worse yet, you work until you are 65, but the average life expectancy in the USA is 78.6 years.

So let’s get this straight, give up the best years of your life, worry throughout that time if you will have enough to retire, and you only have 13 years to enjoy it. Well, it sounds perfectly sane, doesn’t it? Waste the best years of your life, worrying about the worst years of your life. What could possibly go wrong with such a scenario? Keep in mind that the average life expectancy has been dropping in the USA for the third year in a row. 

Early retirement Lie; One needs significantly less than the experts claim

The sad fact is you don’t even need half of the ridiculous figures experts are pushing because even at ¼ of the stated figures which are surpassing one million, most of the world’s population stands no chance of achieving the stated goal. The stated goal like everything mass media and the experts push is to get the masses to buy into the lie they are selling and sow the seeds of doubt. Doubt then gives way to fear and paranoia and the rest, as they say, is history.

How do people get their info? Don’t they see the world through a prism? What is this prism for most individuals; TV, and Mass Media?  What if the intention were to provide the masses with the wrong image or ideas, therefore no matter how hard they tried to solve the problem, they would fail, as they would be analysing the wrong data. Think of Pluto’s allegory of the caves.

Courtesy of Tactical Investor

Random views on Withdraw pension early

Early pension release rules
Early pension release, or pension unlocking, means withdrawing money from your pension before the minimum age of 55. Unless you meet specific conditions, you’ll be charged a substantial amount of tax and could risk losing all of your savings to scammers.

Can I release money from my pension?
Following pension reforms in 2015, you can now withdraw as much of your pension as you want from the age of 55. There are some exceptions that entitle you to access your pension earlier, but you may have to pay high fees. Whatever age you decide to withdraw your pension, there are a few things you’ll need to consider.
Once you’ve had your 55th birthday you’ll be allowed to release money from your personal or workplace pension. You can withdraw up to 25% of your pot tax-free, either as a lump sum or in smaller installments adding up to 25%. It doesn’t matter how big or small your pension pot is, everyone is entitled to take a quarter of their savings without paying income tax.

When deciding what to do with the remainder of your pension, there are four main options to consider. You can cash out your pension and withdraw your entire pot in one go, or in a series of lump sums. If you choose this method it’s important to consider the tax implications, as large withdrawals can push you into a higher tax band, especially if you’re still employed and earning a salary. Full Story

Changes to pension rules introduced in 2015 mean you’ve greater access to your pension. But you still need to be wary of pension liberation scams, which claim you can get access to your pension early.

Pension liberation scammers claim they can get your money from pensions before you’re 55, but the huge fees and taxes you’ll pay can leave you with nowt for retirement and now scammers are targetting the over 55s as well.
Changes to pensions that came into effect in April 2015 mean that from age 55 onwards you can get access to as much of your pension money as you like, when you want it.

Despite these changes, the cruical fact still remains that you can only get access to your pension pot when you turn 55. This means that ‘pension liberators’, who claim you can gain access to your pension money sooner, are trying to get you to break the law.

Pension liberation

Pension liberation’s a scam that claims to release cash from people’s pension pots before they reach age 55. Promises of early cash are false and are likely to result in you paying big bills, in some cases leaving people with no savings for retirement. Do NOT confuse this with Pensions Liberation Day, which some people call the day (6 April) when pension freedom came into effect.

Victims are usually contacted by email, phone or text by fraudsters trying to trick them into transferring their pension funds to bogus arrangements for a commission fee. Full Story

Use this guide to find out if you are eligible to take money out of your pension from the age of 55. It contains some of the key facts and information you need to consider and ends with answers to some of the most common questions we are asked.

The headline facts at a glance
As long as you are aged 55 or over and have the right kind of pension then you can take money from it. The amount you withdraw is completely up to you and the first 25% is tax free. As you might have guessed, the rest is taxed as income. It is worth mentioning that taking money from your pension in this way is often referred to as pension access or pension release.

Are you eligible for pension release?
Why are so many people taking money from their pension early?
Thousands of people across the UK are taking money from their pension pot early to tackle a current pressing need or opportunity. In our experience some of the most common reasons include:

Tackling a long-standing financial commitment such as a mortgage, loan or credit card.
Supporting a family member with a big life event such as a wedding or deposit.
Making important upgrades to the house.
These are just a few examples and you might have a completely different reason for wanting to take money early from your pension. Full Story

Stock investing for dummies pdf

Stock investing for dummies pdf

Stock investing for dummies: Lesson 1

Forever Quantitative Easing is here to stay and this means until it ends, every backbreaking correction has to be treated as a mouth-watering opportunity.

The term forever QE has just started to come into play recently, and mainstream media is most likely going to embrace this term and weaponise it in not so distant future.  However, we first addressed this phenomenon back in in 2015 and here is the link that details what was said at that time  https://bit.ly/2CILKGi

The outlook has only worsened since then; the new tax breaks corporations got will be used to purchase more shares, and the reason is simple, it pays more in the short term to boost profits by reducing share count than in investing in the company. Corporations will continue down this path until new laws are enacted and they will become more emboldened with time. Gone are the days where there was a semblance of caring for the investor; insiders are only concerned with how much they can make and they don’t care if they destroy the company in the process.  Share buybacks are rising and have continued to grow since we first posted that article.

Lesson 2 in Stock Investing For Dummies

Forever Quantitative Easing Fuelling Buyback binge:

Buybacks appear to be nearing a crescendo, with total U.S. stock repurchase announcements crossing the $1 trillion mark in mid-December for the first time, according to Michael Schoonover, the portfolio manager of the Catalyst Buyback Strategy fund (ticker: BUYIX). “There’s been a significant pickup in recent weeks,” with markets in a downdraft, he adds.  Announcements reached $1.08 trillion, with nearly half concentrated in 19 companies, which account for $460 billion of the total. Some of those are listed in the nearby table. Despite the record-setting buyback authorization levels, 2018 has been an unusual year in that fewer companies are accounting for the total buybacks, he says.  Full Story

Take this as an early warning that should the media jackasses start pushing another B.S story, instead of panicking, one should break out of a bottle of champagne, and as the masses panic calmly sip on that champagne and build a list of strong stocks one always wanted to purchase. For those allergic to work, the option is simple; sit back and relax, for we always view crash type events as opportune moments when the trend is positive.  Market update Feb 28, 2019

Mass Media Fails To Account For Forever Quantitative Easing

The wise guys at the Mass Media outlets are already pushing a new narrative. This is how they incept new ideas into the masses; you create doubt and then let that doubt grow. For example, they are making all sorts of dire predictions about Brexit (some of which border on the preposterous), they keep focussing on the calamitous consequences the US will face if there is no trade deal with China, experts are emerging about the dangers of lower rates and an inverted yield curve, etc. Well, think of any garbage and add it to this list.  For that is what these garbage collectors do, they collect waste and try to spin it off as something valuable.

Before the Brexit vote, the naysayers made a great deal of noise of how a “yes” vote would lead to total chaos. So, what happened to that chaotic scene they predicted? We are not taking sides but looking at trends and history, and history is replete with examples illustrating that when “fear” is used as a weapon, the ones to fear are the ones putting this weapon to use.

History also demonstrates that in general individuals favour freedom over serfdom.  Independence can never lead to chaos unless you are impinging on another person’s sovereignty in the process. Whatever narrative the Media is pushing, it is usually the opposing narrative that is true.  According to the experts, the world should have ended several times over, and the Dow should have crashed and never risen years ago.

Lesson Number 3 in Investing For Dummies

Naysayers are always wrong in the long run:

One theme running through all those gloomy predictions of doom is that those making those dire predictions are doomed to be wrong.  Case and point, the dire predictions market experts have made since the market bottomed in 2009. Or the idiotic stance by politicians such AOC on Amazon opening a new Head Quarters in NYC.  This plan would have increased Tax revenues significantly and provided 25K plus jobs. Sam Zell, had some choice words on this topic, that pithily summarises the Amazon fiasco. Observe the video, and you will get a laugh from it as this is another one of those hot mike events

Whether Amazon is fair in the way it conducts its business operations is a separate story; in terms of trends, companies like Amazon need to stop some of their predatory practices or risk being suddenly upended. AI is gaining traction at a stunning rate, and it is going to help many small companies take on industry giants at a speed that will stun these dinosaurs. While experts state that it could AI years to compete with Humans; we feel a major announcement could be made within the next 18-39 months that will stun the world. If this announcement is made, then AI will be smarter than humans in less than 36 months from the date of that announcement.

Investing For Dummies: Lesson 4

When uncertainty is running high, the markets are likely to trend higher.

The masses are still uncertain, and we find uncertainty adorable; nothing is more bullish for the markets than an undecided crowd.

 The best time to buy is when the masses are in panic mode, and when one feels far from certain about the future of the markets; certainty is the secret word for failure when it comes to the stock markets. Market Update Feb 28, 2019

What is striking is that over the past several weeks the number of individuals in the Neutral camp has hardly budged and is gently trending upwards. Since the last update, we have two sets of new readings.   Last week the number of individuals in the neutral camp stood at 39, this week they increased to 41. So far in 2019, the number of individuals in the neutral camp has always surpassed those in the bullish or bearish camps, and this is very revealing. It clearly indicates that the masses are suffering from a long term bias and that the political landscape is messing with their ability to distinguish reality from fiction.

Until we have a feeding frenzy stage this bull market will not end

While you might feel sorry for them, just watch Pluto’s allegory of the cave to see how well the masses will reward you for trying to wake them up. In a nutshell, this development is a very bullish factor for it means that eventually, this market is going to experience what could turn out to be an extreme “feeding frenzy stage”. The crowd will ultimately be so mad they sat and did nothing for so long, that they will double up on this market and their sweet reward as always will be a very sharp guillotine.

Masses will eventually embrace this bull

However, contrarian players will mistake the initial surge in bullishness as a sign that the markets are ready to top out and will end up shedding a lot of tears in the process. At the Tactical Investor, our strategy is different; we will not adopt a position that opposes the masses until the crowd is in a state of ecstasy, in other words, the bandwagon of joy should be ready to collapse before we consider betting against the masses.

As the masses held off for so long, the buying climax could last for an extended period. Remember the equation must always balance. As we are quite far from the “feeding frenzy stage”, there is no point in wasting too much time on it. Suffice to say, this bull market is not ready to die.

This bull market is unlike any other; before 2009, one could have relied on extensive technical studies to more or less call the top of a market give or take a few months; after 2009, the game plan changed and 99% of these traders/experts failed to factor this into the equation. Technical analysis as a standalone tool would not work as well as did before 2009 and in many cases would lead to a faulty conclusion. Long story short, there are still too many people pessimistic (experts, your average Joes and everything in between) and until they start to embrace this market, most pullbacks ranging from mild to wild will falsely be mistaken for the big one. Market Update Feb 28, 2019

Conclusion

One should remember the paragraph above every time the urge to panic starts to rise; no bull market has ever ended on a note of fear or anxiety. Despite the media trying to create a new narrative to prove otherwise for the past several years; they have failed miserably. And this illustrates that news, in general, should either be treated as rubbish or viewed through a humorous lens.

In terms of the stock market, until the Fed changes its mind, all sharp corrections have to be viewed as buying opportunities, and backbreaking corrections have to be placed in the category of “once in a lifetime events”, provided of course the trend is positive. That is what we are here for; to inform you if the trend is positive (Up) or negative (down).

The world is going to witness a Fed that has decided to make a cocktail of Coke, Heroin, Crack and Meth and take it all in one shot. Imagine what a junkie on this combination of potent drugs is capable of doing, and you will have an idea of where the Fed is heading in the years to come.  Market Update Feb 28, 2019

Courtesy of Tactical Investor

 

Random views on Stock investing for dummies

History has shown that investing in stocks is one of the easiest and most profitable ways to build wealth over the long-term. With a handful of notable exceptions, almost every member of the Forbes 400 list of the wealthiest people got there because they own a large block of shares in a public or private corporation. Although your beginning may be humble, this guide to investing in stocks will explain what stocks are, how you can make money from them, and much more.
Have you ever asked yourself, “What is stock?” or wondered why shares of stock exist? This introduction to the world of investing in stocks will provide answers to those questions and show you just how simple Wall Street really is. It may turn out to be one of the most important articles you’ve ever read if you don’t understand what stocks represent. Find out the answer to “What is Stock?” and how it comes to exist …
You probably know that investing in stocks is a way to get rich but very few new investors actually realize how you make money from your shares of stock. Now, you don’t have to wonder any longer. Let’s show you the two ways you can profit from owning and investing in stocks, and some of the factors that determine how fast a company grows. Find out how to make money from owning stocks … Full Story

Investing in stocks is an excellent way to grow wealth. But how do you actually start? Follow the steps below to learn how to invest in the stock market.

1. Decide how you want to invest in stocks
There are several ways to approach stock investing. Choose the option below that best represents how you want to invest, and how hands-on you’d like to be in picking and choosing the stocks you invest in.

“I’m the DIY type and am interested in choosing stocks and stock funds for myself.” Keep reading; this article breaks down things hands-on investors need to know. Or, if you already know the stock-buying game and just need a brokerage, see our roundup of the best online stock brokers.
“I know stocks can be a great investment, but I’d like someone to manage the process for me.” You may be a good candidate for a robo-advisor, a service that offers low-cost investment management. Virtually all of the major brokerage firms offer these services, which invest your money for you based on your specific goals. See our top picks for robo-advisors.
Once you have a preference in mind, you’re ready to shop for an account.

2. Open an investing account
Generally speaking, to invest in stocks, you need an investment account. For the hands-on types, this usually means a brokerage account. For those who would like a little help, opening an account through a robo-advisor is a sensible option. We break down both processes below. Full Story

 

Uranium Futures price chart

uranium futures price

Uranium futures price chart: Is Uranium Ready To Rally

By any estimate, the uranium market is trading in the extremely oversold ranges, but when the trend is down, a market can trend into the extreme of extremely oversold ranges, and we have seen this occur many times in the past.  The 15-year chart illustrates that the next layer of support comes into play in the $21.50-$22.00 ranges, so despite being extremely oversold the market still has room to trend lower. One positive is that the trend is about to turn neutral and if it does it would be the first move into the neutral zone in a very long time.

uranium futures price graph 5 years

Source:www.indexmundi.com/

Taking a long-term view; a monthly close above $35 would be needed to indicate that a multi-month bottom is in place.  From a contrarian perspective, uranium would start to look quite tempting at any level below $23.00.

Source:www.indexmundi.com/

On the five year chart, Uranium is has broken through former support (27.50-28.00) now turned resistance and it appears that almost all the ingredients are in place for a test of the $21.50-$22.00ranges.

uranium futures price chart 15 years

Fundamentals Relating To Uranium Price

Uranium costs about $60 a pound to produce and yet mining companies can barely get $30.00 a pound for it. At some point, something has got to give, and that will most likely be the mines. More and more mines will close up shop and call it quits, and it is not easy to bring an offline mine online again; it takes time to get an inactive mine back online.

Countries like Japan, Germany and a host of other nations dreaming of giving up on Nuclear energy are well just dreaming. Japan is now re-embracing nuclear, as will Germany and or any other country with hopes to wean itself away from Nuclear power.  It is either Nuclear power or Coal, and since these countries claim to be fighting global warming, they will rather embrace Nuclear than coal.

From the fundamental perspective, the picture looks quite compelling, but fundamentals tend to paint a falsely positive picture. If we take a look at Cameco, one of the top players in this sector, the technical picture is far from positive. Despite trading in the oversold ranges, the stock broke down after posting a surprise second-quarter loss.

CCJ - Uranium Graph 5 years

The brown dotted lines represent the multiple levels of support the stock has broken through; in fact, the stock has just traded below is 2004 lows. We would not be surprised if it dipped to $8.50 with a possible overshoot to $7.20 before a long-term bottom takes hold.  If uranium trades lower but Cameco’s stock price does not take the same path, it will trigger a positive divergence signals and such signals are usually indicative of a bottom.

Conclusion

Overall while there are many factors in the fundamental arena calling for a bottom, the technical outlook has improved and Crowd Psychology illustrates that this sector is still being ignored. The ideal strategy would be to use sharp pullbacks to add to or start a new position.

Courtesy of Tactical Investor

Random views on Uranium Futures price chart

Uranium is a silvery-white metallic element that is malleable, ductile, very dense and naturally radioactive. Uranium has several important industrial applications, but its principle use is as a fissionable material (atoms that can be split apart to release energy) to produce nuclear fuel for electricity generation. Miners worldwide extract about 62,000 metric tons of uranium annually. The quest for cleaner, more environmentally-friendly fuels has propelled the growth of the nuclear industry in electricity generation. As a result, uranium has become an increasingly valuable commodity in world markets. How Did Uranium Usage Evolve? Civilizations have used uranium compounds for centuries. Archaeologists found yellow glass with 1% uranium oxide in an ancient Roman villa near Naples, Italy. In the later Middle Ages, glassmakers used pitchblende extracted from silver mines to color glass. However, chemists didn’t formally isolate uranium as an element until the 19th century. In 1789, Martin Heinrich Klaproth, a German chemist, discovered uranium oxide in the mineral pitchblende. Although he believed the compound contained a new element, he failed to produce uranium on its own. Full Story

Uranium Futures Trading Basics

Uranium futures are standardized, exchange-traded contracts in which the contract buyer agrees to take delivery, from the seller, a specific quantity of uranium (eg. 250 pounds) at a predetermined price on a future delivery date.

Uranium Futures Exchanges
You can trade Uranium futures at New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

NYMEX Uranium futures prices are quoted in dollars and cents per pound and are traded in lot sizes of 250 pounds .
Uranium Futures Trading Basics
Consumers and producers of uranium can manage uranium price risk by purchasing and selling uranium futures. Uranium producers can employ a short hedge to lock in a selling price for the uranium they produce while businesses that require uranium can utilize a long hedge to secure a purchase price for the commodity they need.

Uranium futures are also traded by speculators who assume the price risk that hedgers try to avoid in return for a chance to profit from favorable uranium price movement. Speculators buy uranium futures when they believe that uranium prices will go up. Conversely, they will sell uranium futures when they think that uranium prices will fall. Full Story

 

Stock Market 2018 Graph

Stock Market 2018 Graph

Stock Market 2018 Graph: The trend is your friend

Financial experts continue to state that the markets are going to crash, even though their record since this bull market started back in 2009 has been dismal to the say the least.  To complicate matters, some of these same experts suddenly jump ship and start to paint a bullish picture until the markets start to pull back. Then they falsely assume that the markets are going to crash and start singing the “market is going to crash” song again.

Market sentiment is not extremely bullish, though the bullish sentiment has been trending upwards since Feb of this year.  Crowd psychology states that one should only abandon the ship when the masses are euphoric. As that’s not the case, there is no reason to abandon the ship.

The Market has shed some weight, but given the massive run-up, this market has experienced this falls well within the normal ranges of an acceptable correction. In fact, the Dow could drop all the way to 21,500 without having any effect on the trend.

Stock market outlook 2018 still bullish according to TI Dow Theory

Our alternative Dow Theory states that the Dow follows the Utilities and unless the utilities drop to new lows the markets will continue trading within a wide range.  The utilities have held up very well when one considers all the outside factors; extremely volatile geopolitical situation (trade wars, disputes with our NATO allies, etc.) and the extremely polarised way the masses are behaving. One would think that we are just one step away from a civil war.

Until the sentiment changes or the utilities drop to new lows, your best bet is to use strong pullbacks to purchase quality stocks.

Most financial experts are closer to clowns than experts, and most financial sites are on par with tabloids; their sole function is to create bombastic titles with little to no subject matter to back their faulty assertions.    One would be best served by taking their advice with a barrel of salt and a shot of whiskey.

Focus on Mass Psychology and identify the sentiment that’s driving the masses.  The Crowd drives the markets, and if you identify the emotion that’s driving them, you can determine the trend of the market.

Tactical Investor stock market 2018 outlook is also validated by the Dow Transports. Note that they are also holding up well and unless they trade below 9500 on a monthly basis, the outlook will remain bullish.  The trend is your friend and everything else is your foe.   As the trend is positive,  view sharp pullbacks through a bullish lens; the stronger the deviation, the better the opportunity.

Courtesy of Tactical Investor

Random views on Stock Market 2018 Graph

2018 was a record-setting year for stocks, but it’s one investors would rather forget.

The Dow fell 5.6%. The S&P 500 was down 6.2% and the Nasdaq fell 4%. It was the worst year for stocks since 2008 and only the second year the Dow and S&P 500 fell in the past decade. (The S&P 500 and Dow were down slightly in 2015, but the Nasdaq was higher that year.)
December was a particularly dreadful month: The S&P 500 was down 9% and the Dow was down 8.7% — the worst December since 1931. In one seven-day stretch, the Dow fell by 350 points or more six times. This year’s Christmas Eve was the worst ever for the index.
The S&P 500 was up or down more than 1% nine times in December alone, compared to eight times in all of 2017. It moved that much 64 times during the year.
2018 wasn’t all bad. The S&P 500 set an all-time record on September 20, and the Dow closed at its record on October 3. The Dow also closed more than 1,000 points higher on December 26 — the first time it ever accomplished that feat.
But 2018 will be remembered for its extreme volatility. The VIX volatility index spiked, and CNN Business’ Fear & Greed Index has been stuck in “Extreme Fear” throughout much of the year. The Dow has swung 1,000 points in a single session only eight times in its history, and five of those took place in 2018. Full Story

Unlike last year, when the stock market rose steadily — and considerably — in the first quarter, Wall Street has gotten off to a disappointing and disconcerting start in 2018.

As concerns have shifted back and forth from a sluggish economy to an overheating one, the market has taken investors on a roller coaster ride, resulting in poor returns and testing investors’ strategy and resolve.

A SLUGGISH START
Unlike last year, stocks stumbled at the start of 2018.
Making matters worse, there has been no place to hide in the stock market so far this year.

In the first quarter, losses were felt across the board — not only in sectors that performed well at the start of 2017 but in both economically sensitive areas of the market (such as real estate and basic materials) and defensive areas (such as consumer staples and utilities).
Meanwhile, market volatility has come back with a vengeance.

Wall Street strategists typically look at the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index to judge the rockiness of the market. And by that gauge, which measures fear based on options trading, volatility returned to levels seen in the financial crisis years.

But there’s a simpler way to judge how shaky the market is, and that’s to count the number of days in which stocks climb or fall by 1% or more. In the first quarter of 2018, there were 25 such trading days, more than in any full year since 2009. Full Story

Here are some ingredients for stock-market gloom: A trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies, a Federal Reserve pushing the yield curve toward inversion, and a U.S. president under investigation by an independent counsel.

But enough about 1994.

Seriously, though, investors might want to take a look back at the events of the same year that brought the world Forrest Gump and the founding of a plucky little company called Amazon for a “possible analog” to the current stock market environment, argued Tony Dwyer, analyst at Canaccord Genuity, in a Monday note that highlights the chart below, one that looks somewhat similar to the pattern seen in 2018.
The S&P 500 index SPX, -0.53% fell 1.5% in 1994, according to FactSet, while the index is down 3.9% in the year to date in 2018.

Dwyer emphasized that the backdrops now and in 1994 aren’t exactly alike, but said there are enough similarities between the current political, macroeconomic, Fed policy and market environment to that year to potentially offer some insights.

Moreover, if 1994 and 2018 share similar backdrops, does 1995 offer a guide to 2019? Dwyer noted that after the near-doubling of short-term interest rates in 1994, the first half of 1995 saw just 0.5% annualized gross domestic product growth. The Fed, however, remained worried about inflation and hiked interest rates one more time in February. Full Story

Quantitative Easing Definition

quantitative easing definition

Forever Quantitative Easing: Is it here to stay?

The term forever QE has just started to come into play recently, and mainstream media is most likely going to embrace this term and weaponise it in not so distant future. However, we first addressed this phenomenon back in in 2015 and here is the link that details what was said at that time.

The outlook has only worsened since then; the new tax breaks corporations got will be used to purchase more shares, and the reason is simple, it pays more in the short term to boost profits by reducing share count than in investing in the company. Corporations will continue down this path until new laws are enacted and they will become more emboldened with time. Gone are the days where there was a semblance of caring for the investor; insiders are only concerned with how much they can make and they don’t care if they destroy the company in the process. Share buybacks are rising and have continued to grow since we first posted that article.

 

Forever Quantitative Easing Fuelling Buyback binge

Buybacks appear to be nearing a crescendo, with total U.S. stock repurchase announcements crossing the $1 trillion mark in mid-December for the first time, according to Michael Schoonover, the portfolio manager of the Catalyst Buyback Strategy fund (ticker: BUYIX). “There’s been a significant pickup in recent weeks,” with markets in a downdraft, he adds. Announcements reached $1.08 trillion, with nearly half concentrated in 19 companies, which account for $460 billion of the total. Some of those are listed in the nearby table. Despite the record-setting buyback authorization levels, 2018 has been an unusual year in that fewer companies are accounting for the total buybacks, he says.

Take this as an early warning that should the media jackasses start pushing another B.S story, instead of panicking, one should break out of a bottle of champagne, and as the masses panic calmly sip on that champagne and build a list of strong stocks one always wanted to purchase. For those allergic to work, the option is simple; sit back and relax, for we always view crash type events as opportune moments when the trend is positive. Market update Feb 28, 2019

 

 

Mass Media Fails To Account For Forever Quantitative Easing

 

The wise guys at the Mass Media outlets are already pushing a new narrative. This is how they incept new ideas into the masses; you create doubt and then let that doubt grow. For example, they are making all sorts of dire predictions about Brexit (some of which border on the preposterous), they keep focussing on the calamitous consequences the US will face if there is no trade deal with China, experts are emerging about the dangers of lower rates and an inverted yield curve, etc. Well, think of any garbage and add it to this list. For that is what these garbage collectors do, they collect waste and try to spin it off as something valuable.

Before the Brexit vote, the naysayers made a great deal of noise of how a “yes” vote would lead to total chaos. So, what happened to that chaotic scene they predicted? We are not taking sides but looking at trends and history, and history is replete with examples illustrating that when “fear” is used as a weapon, the ones to fear are the ones putting this weapon to use.

History also demonstrates that in general individuals favour freedom over serfdom. Independence can never lead to chaos unless you are impinging on another person’s sovereignty in the process. Whatever narrative the Media is pushing, it is usually the opposing narrative that is true. According to the experts, the world should have ended several times over, and the Dow should have crashed and never risen years ago.

 

Naysayers are always wrong in the long run

One theme running through all those gloomy predictions of doom is that those making those dire predictions are doomed to be wrong. Case and point, the dire predictions market experts have made since the market bottomed in 2009. Or the idiotic stance by politicians such AOC on Amazon opening a new Head Quarters in NYC. This plan would have increased Tax revenues significantly and provided 25K plus jobs. Sam Zell, had some choice words on this topic, that pithily summarises the Amazon fiasco. Observe the video, and you will get a laugh from it as this is another one of those hot mike events.

Whether Amazon is fair in the way it conducts its business operations is a separate story; in terms of trends, companies like Amazon need to stop some of their predatory practices or risk being suddenly upended. AI is gaining traction at a stunning rate, and it is going to help many small companies take on industry giants at a speed that will stun these dinosaurs. While experts state that it could AI years to compete with Humans; we feel a major announcement could be made within the next 18-39 months that will stun the world. If this announcement is made, then AI will be smarter than humans in less than 36 months from the date of that announcement.

 

Uncertainty is still running high

The masses are still uncertain, and we find uncertainty adorable; nothing is more bullish for the markets than an undecided crowd.

The best time to buy is when the masses are in panic mode, and when one feels far from certain about the future of the markets; certainty is the secret word for failure when it comes to the stock markets. Market Update Feb 28, 2019

What is striking is that over the past several weeks the number of individuals in the Neutral camp has hardly budged and is gently trending upwards. Since the last update, we have two sets of new readings. Last week the number of individuals in the neutral camp stood at 39, this week they increased to 41. So far in 2019, the number of individuals in the neutral camp has always surpassed those in the bullish or bearish camps, and this is very revealing. It clearly indicates that the masses are suffering from a long term bias and that the political landscape is messing with their ability to distinguish reality from fiction.

Until we have a feeding frenzy stage this bull market will not end
While you might feel sorry for them, just watch Pluto’s allegory of the cave to see how well the masses will reward you for trying to wake them up. In a nutshell, this development is a very bullish factor for it means that eventually, this market is going to experience what could turn out to be an extreme “feeding frenzy stage”. The crowd will ultimately be so mad they sat and did nothing for so long, that they will double up on this market and their sweet reward as always will be a very sharp guillotine.

 

 

Masses will eventually embrace this bull

However, contrarian players will mistake the initial surge in bullishness as a sign that the markets are ready to top out and will end up shedding a lot of tears in the process. At the Tactical Investor, our strategy is different; we will not adopt a position that opposes the masses until the crowd is in a state of ecstasy, in other words, the bandwagon of joy should be ready to collapse before we consider betting against the masses. As the masses held off for so long, the buying climax could last for an extended period. Remember the equation must always balance. As we are quite far from the “feeding frenzy stage”, there is no point in wasting too much time on it. Suffice to say, this bull market is not ready to die.

This bull market is unlike any other; before 2009, one could have relied on extensive technical studies to more or less call the top of a market give or take a few months; after 2009, the game plan changed and 99% of these traders/experts failed to factor this into the equation. Technical analysis as a standalone tool would not work as well as did before 2009 and in many cases would lead to a faulty conclusion. Long story short, there are still too many people pessimistic (experts, your average Joes and everything in between) and until they start to embrace this market, most pullbacks ranging from mild to wild will falsely be mistaken for the big one. Market Update Feb 28, 2019

One should remember this paragraph every time the urge to panic starts to rise; no bull market has ever ended on a note of fear or anxiety. Despite the media trying to create a new narrative to prove otherwise for the past several years; they have failed miserably, showing that news, in general, should either be treated as rubbish or viewed through a humorous lens.

 

Conclusion

In terms of the stock market, until the Fed changes its mind, all sharp corrections have to be viewed as buying opportunities, and backbreaking corrections have to be placed in the category of “once in a lifetime events”, provided of course the trend is positive. That is what we are here for; to inform you if the trend is positive (Up) or negative (down). The world is going to witness a Fed that has decided to make a cocktail of Coke, Heroin, Crack and Meth and take it all in one shot. Imagine what a junkie on this combination of potent drugs is capable of doing, and you will have an idea of where the Fed is heading in the years to come. Market Update Feb 28, 2019

Courtesy of Tactical Investor

 

Random views on QE

Quantitative Easing definition?

Quantitative easing is an unconventional monetary policy in which a central bank purchases government securities or other securities from the market in order to increase the money supply and encourage lending and investment. When short-term interest rates are at or approaching zero, normal open market operations, which target interest rates, are no longer effective, so instead a central bank can target specified amounts of assets to purchase. Quantitative easing increases the money supply by purchasing assets with newly created bank reserves in order to provide banks with more liquidity.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Quantitative easing, or “QE,” is the name for a strategy that a central bank can use to increase the domestic money supply.
  • QE is usually used when interest rates are already near 0 percent and can be focused on the purchase of government bonds from banks.
  • QE programs were widely used following the 2008 financial crisis, although some central banks, like the Bank of Japan, had been using QE for several years prior to the financial crisis. Full Story

Quantitative Easing Explained

Quantitative easing is a massive expansion of the open market operations of a central bank. It’s used to stimulate the economy by making it easier for businesses to borrow money. The bank buys securities from its member banks to add liquidity to capital markets. This has the same effect as increasing the money supply. In return, the central bank issues credit to the banks’ reserves to buy the securities.

Where do central banks get the credit to purchase these assets? They simply create it out of thin air. Only central banks have this unique power. This is what people are referring to when they talk about the Federal Reserve “printing money.”
Lower interest rates allow banks to make more loans. Bank loans stimulate demand by giving businesses money to expand. They give shoppers credit to purchase more goods and services.

By increasing the money supply, QE keeps the value of the country’s currency low. This makes the country’s stocks more attractive to foreign investors. It also makes exports cheaper.

Japan was the first to use QE from 2001 to 2006. It restarted in 2012, with the election of Shinzo Abe as Prime Minister. He promised reforms for Japan’s economy with his three-arrow program, “Abenomics.”
The U.S. Federal Reserve undertook the most successful QE effort. It added almost $2 trillion to the money supply. That’s the largest expansion from any economic stimulus program in history. Full Story

 

Why do we need quantitative easing?

The aim of QE is simple: by creating this ‘new’ money, we aim to boost spending and investment in the economy.
We are tasked with keeping inflation – rises in the prices of goods and services – low and stable.

The normal way we meet our inflation target is by changing Bank Rate, a key interest rate in the economy.

When the global recession took hold in late 2008, we quickly lowered Bank Rate from 5% to 0.5% to support the UK’s economic recovery. Lower interest rates mean it’s cheaper for households and businesses to borrow money – which encourages them to spend and invest, whether that’s a family buying a new car or a company wanting to build a new factory.

But there’s a limit to how low interest rates can go. So when we needed to act to boost the economy, we turned to another method of doing so: we introduced quantitative easing. Full Story

Trump

Trump Feed

  • President Trump sends furious tweet to Iran after “mother of all wars” comment 23 Jul 2018 12:39 KFOR-TV-DT President Donald Trump issued a furious, all-caps challenge to the Iranian regime late Sunday night, warning that any threats to the US would be met with unspecified dire consequences. The tirade signaled an immediate escalation of tensions between …
  • Trump, Putin meeting draws mixed reaction from GOP voters 23 Jul 2018 12:38 Daily Independent By ZEKE MILLER Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) - Capping a week of drama, back tracking, a double negative and blistering statements from allies about his attitude toward Russian election interference, President Donald Trump on Sunday was back to …
  • New documents shed light on surveillance of former Trump adviser 23 Jul 2018 12:38 NBCNews Donald Trump’s congressional allies have invested a considerable amount of time and energy into a curious idea: U.S. surveillance of Carter Page, a foreign policy adviser to Donald Trump during his 2016 campaign, was an outrageous abuse. The argument has …
  • Trump's ex-aide Manafort due in court over bid to delay trial 23 Jul 2018 12:41 Reuters ALEXANDRIA, Va. (Reuters) - A U.S. judge on Monday will weigh President Donald Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort’s bid to delay a criminal trial scheduled to begin this week on more than two dozen financial charges, including bank and tax fraud …
  • As Trump threatens war with Iran, few know whether to take it seriously 23 Jul 2018 12:38 NBCNews Welcome to Monday morning, Americans. Your president published a series of tweets overnight, directed at Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, raising the prospect of a war. In the nearly all-caps tweet, Trump directly warned the Iranian president to “NEVER, …

ICE is expanding partnerships with Local Law enforcement

ICE is expanding partnerships with Local Law enforcement

A few years after his family crossed the border from Mexico in 2004, he called the cops to report his father for beating his mom.  The police intervened, his dad got deported and Gabriel and his family eventually received U-visas, reserved for undocumented victims of crimes who cooperate with police.

Thanks to the U-visa, he was able to work, pay taxes and eventually get a green card. Outside his full-time job in sales and customer service at an online jewelry store, Gabriel is a volunteer firefighter and is taking classes to become an EMT. In a little over three years, he’ll be eligible to apply for citizenship — if he doesn’t get deported first

Gabriel says he was released that day without bond and when he showed up to court, the prosecutor decided not to pursue the case. He was relieved, but even though the case was cleared, his information had already been entered into ICE’s system, and when he returned from visiting his family in Mexico in February, Gabriel discovered that the incident had repercussions. He says he was pulled aside while going through customs and told by an immigration agent that if he gets arrested again, he’ll be deported.

Last summer, Gabriel found himself in another domestic violence situation when his wife became violent during an argument, punching him several times while he was driving with one of his nephews in the car. He says he pulled over and called the police, hoping they could help him defuse the situation. But when the cops arrived, Gabriel says his wife accused him of assaulting her and he was the one who wound up in handcuffs. Because he was arrested in Frederick County, Md., where sheriff’s deputies have been engaged in a partnership with Immigration and Customs Enforcement to help enforce federal immigration law since 2008, Gabriel was asked about his immigration status upon being taken to the local jail/detention center.

Gabriel’s story is just one example of the real-life ramifications of the 287(g) program, a long-standing and controversial federal program that trains and deputizes state and local police officers to enforce some aspects of federal immigration law. Participation in the program has varied over the years, but is being revived under the Trump administration. Gabriel had the misfortune to live in one of a small number of jurisdictions — a total of 78 in 20 states, double from a year ago — that are currently enrolled.

After undergoing four-week ICE training (followed by a required refresher every two years), deputized officers are generally authorized to question individuals about their immigration status, check DHS databases for such information, transfer non-citizens into ICE custody and launch deportation proceedings by issuing official Notices to Appear in immigration court. They are also able to enter personal data into the ICE database, recommend non-citizens for detention and immigration bond as well as voluntary departure and issue requests for immigration detainers to hold people until they can be taken into ICE custody.  “Why are we identifying foreign-born gang members?” the former ICE official asked, noting that plenty of foreign-born people may be citizens or otherwise legally authorized to be in the country.“Being foreign-born doesn’t really get to root of the underlying problems of immigration and customs enforcement,” suggesting something like “foreign nationals,” might be more appropriate. Instead, ICE’s language seems to paint anyone who may have been born outside the U.S. as a person of interest.

“That’s when you start getting into this idea of profiling, because you’re looking for ‘foreign-born’ individuals,” the former official said. Full Story

The war against illegal immigrants rages; for now, the target is illegal immigrants, but the target will change, and immigrants that refuse to assimilate will be viewed through the same lens.  The trend of “nationalism” is gaining momentum on a worldwide basis, especially in the west. Nationalism is dangerous for it allows the top players to manipulate the masses with ease under the guise of protecting the country.

Nun on deportation list for tangling with Duterte

Nun on deportation list for tangling with Duterte

An elderly Australian nun facing deportation after angering Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte launched a last-minute appeal against the order on Friday, the deadline for her to leave the country.

Sister Patricia Fox, 71, has been accused of illegally engaging in political activism as the government cracks down on foreign critics on its soil.  Duterte, who accuses the Melbourne native of “disorderly conduct”, had the immigration service detain her briefly last month, after which her missionary visa was cancelled.

“Of course my wish is to continue my missionary work here and be with the poor,” Fox told reporters after filing her appeal with the justice ministry, which oversees immigration.  Fox had earlier filed an appeal with the immigration service, which this week upheld the deportation order asking the nun, who has been in the Philippines for nearly three decades, to leave by Friday.

However, on Thursday the immigration service’s spokesman Dana Sandoval told AFP her office “will submit to any directive that may come from” the justice ministry. Sandoval did not return calls for comment Friday.  Lawyer Katherine Panguban said Fox’s legal team was studying other options in case the justice ministry rejects her appeal.

“We will exhaust all administrative and judicial remedies available,” she said.Authorities have previously said she would be allowed to remain while her appeals are pending.Fox told AFP earlier this month she apparently angered the president by joining a fact-finding mission in April to investigate alleged abuses against farmers, including killings and evictions by soldiers fighting guerrillas in the southern Philippines. “You insult me under the cloak of being a Catholic priest, and you are a foreigner! Who are you? It is a violation of sovereignty,” Duterte said in a speech last month, apparently referring to Fox. Duterte has also launched verbal attacks against critics of his government’s narcotics crackdown, which has killed thousands of alleged dealers and users.

Last month Manila also deported Italian Giacomo Filibeck, deputy secretary general of the Party of European Socialists, who had previously condemned “extra-judicial killings” in Duterte’s anti-drug war. Full story

A perfect example of the saying “when in Rome do as the Romans do or be sent home”.  In most countries, non-citizens are treated quite harshly if they get involved in politics. Imagine what would happen in the US if Iranians came here and performed political activism.

Trump Administration now makes it easy to fire lazy government workers

Trump Administration now makes it easy to fire lazy government workers

President Donald Trump on Friday signed a series of executive orders that could make it easier to fire federal government employees, potentially undermining the unions that represent them.

The three executive orders Trump issued would reduce the timeframe for firing poor performers, curtail the amount of paid time federal employees can receive for union work and direct agencies to negotiate more restrictive union contracts in a timely fashion.  By signing the orders, the president was “fulfilling his promise to promote a more efficient government by reforming civil service rules,” Andrew Bremberg, director of the White House Domestic Policy Council, said in a call with reporters.

“Every year, the Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey shows that less than one third of federal employees believe poor performers are adequately addressed by their agency,” Bremberg said, according to Government Executive. “These executive orders make it easier to remove poor performing employees, and ensure that taxpayer dollars are more efficiently used.”   Unions representing federal workers denounced the orders on Friday, calling Trump’s actions an “assault on democracy.” Full Story

Government workers, in general, are the worst workers around;  their performance is so bad that they are setting themselves up to be replaced either by AI or robots. Soon to be announced will be a program that does just this, but the main function of this program will be to lower headcount by making workers (that are left) work more efficiently.

On a separate note, the days of the Unions are numbered and believe it, or not this relates to AI. AI is going to assure that Unions go the way of the dinosaurs. Massive change is coming, and it won’t be good for those who are unprepared.

It’s now a crime in Hungary to help Illegal immigrants In Hungary

It’s now a crime in Hungary to help Illegal immigrants In Hungary

BUDAPEST (Reuters) – Individuals or groups who help migrants not entitled to protection to submit requests for asylum or who help illegal migrants gain status to stay in Hungary will be liable to jail under legislation submitted to parliament on Tuesday.

Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government has also proposed amending the constitution to state that an “alien population” cannot be settled in Hungary, rejecting European Union quotas to distribute migrants around the bloc.

In power since 2010, the right-wing nationalist Orban has tightened state control over the media and campaigned on a platform of fierce hostility to immigration – policies that have put him in conflict with the European Union, which funds development policies to the tune of billions of euros a year.

The new bill also says that foreigners who sought to enter Hungary via a third country in which they were not directly exposed to persecution would not be entitled to asylum. Full Story

The landscape is changing so rapidly. If you go back to when we first spoke of this trend, the current developments appear extreme in nature, but sadly they fall at most under the “medium intensity” category, so there is plenty of room for things to heat up even more.  The momentum is picking up speed now and the Scandinavian countries will suddenly lead the assault against illegal and violent immigrants. Sweden’s political landscape is about to change; a new party that is against illegal immigrants is gaining momentum fast and could win by landslide. Violent Muslim immigrants are going to suddenly face a steel boot.