Rate of Inflation not an issue according to Bond Market

Rate of Inflation not an issue according to Bond Market

The Bond market is Indicating that The Rate of  Inflation is not an issue in 2017 

Bonds should have continued to plunge, but notice that bonds bottomed in April and have started to trend higher. After the July rate hike, bonds should have taken out their April lows, but they did not.  Instead, they went on to put in a series of higher lows; higher lows are usually indicative of higher prices. Furthermore, the stock market hardly reacted to the last rate hike; after a very mild reaction, it has continued to trend higher.

rate of inflation

We tend to focus more on the technical and psychological outlook, and both are indicating that inflation is still not an issue.    The Gold market is also indicating that inflation is not an issue. Last July Gold traded past $1400; at that time rates were lower and the US dollar was trading at higher levels.  But today rates are higher today, and the dollar is trading lower than it was in 2016, but Gold instead trading at or above $1400 can’t even trade above $1300 for a sustained period.

Mass Psychology seems to support the theory that US inflation is not a big problem

The psychological factor does not support higher prices; the economy is not doing well as the consumer is not spending wildly. Consumer confidence is increasing, but consumer spending is not marching in tandem with consumer confidence.  Income growth is weak; the rise in incomes and net worth has primarily benefited high income and high net worth households. These are the same individuals that have the most money invested in the stock market which has tripled since its March 2009 lows.

We have listed a plethora of factors that illustrate that inflation is not an issue; at least not yet.

Even James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve of St Louis went seems to be in agreement

“Low inflation has been the major surprise of the era,”

He also went on to state that he was still waiting for inflation to return to the 2% ranges and would not support any increases in the Fed’s benchmark rate until 2018 to allow inflationary forces to recover. He might have to wait a lot longer than that. AI and technology, in general, are going to continue to fuel lower prices. The retail sector is in freefall; the remaining players battle it out, and price wars will continue for the foreseeable future. Food prices are going to plunge due to the price war that new entrants like Lidl and Amazon have triggered.

The bond market is not supporting the higher inflationary outlook, in fact by all measures the bond market appears to be building momentum to trend higher.

US Jobs Report misses the mark

The unemployment rate edged up to 4.4% and wages barely grew. Only 156,000 jobs were added as opposed to the 180,000 consensus number.

The retail sector continued to get hammered; retailers shed 9,00 jobs, while the public sector shed another 9000 jobs.

“In months where there are anomalies like this, we look at the three-month average, which is 185,000,” said Michael Gapen, chief United States economist at Barclays. “The labor market is healthy, but we still have the conundrum that solid employment gains haven’t translated into faster wage growth.”

One wild card in the second half of 2017 will be gasoline prices. The surge following Hurricane Harvey’s devastation in Texas will leave less money for consumers to spend on other goods and services.

“For the economy, it’s steady as she goes, but for the markets, it’s Goldilocks,” said Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank, referring to the not-too-hot, not-too-cold August payroll increase.  NY Times

The markets are holding up well and trending higher as we stated they would all along in 2016 and now in 2017.  Until the sentiment turns bullish the markets are expected to trend higher.

Originally posted 2017-12-08 15:55:47.

Price of Copper Signalling Inflation or higher Stock Market Prices

Price of Copper probably a bullish Development for the Stock market

Many pundits associate higher copper prices with inflation. This is the wrong metric to look at; higher copper prices are usually associated with an improving economy.

Copper has traded past a key resistance point ($3.00) and it has managed to close above this important level on a monthly basis.  The long term outlook for copper is now bullish and will remain so as long as it does not close below 2.80 on a monthly basis.   Copper is facing resistance in the 3.20-3.25 ranges and as it is now trading in the extremely overbought ranges. As copper is now trading in the extremely overbought ranges, it is more likely to let out some steam before trading past this zone.  A healthy consolidation will provide copper with the force necessary to challenge the 3.20 ranges and trade as high as $3.80 with a possible overshoot to $4.00, provided it does not close below $2.80 on a monthly basis.

 

Price of Copper Signalling Inflation or higher Stock Market Prices

Now that copper has traded past $3.00 on a monthly basis,  the Fed deserves another pat on the back for they have managed to further cement the illusion that this economic recovery is real. Copper is seen as a barometer for economic growth, so pulling off a Houdini here is probably going propel a lot of former naysayers to embrace this economic recovery.

Mass Sentiment is still Negative so Stock Market likely to Correct only

 

Combining this data with the action in the Copper markets leads us to believe that the stock market is more likely to experience a correction than an outright crash. Higher copper prices are usually indicative of higher stock market prices.  Therefore, the copper markets are confirming that the long term trend is still intact.

What about the Inflation issue?

The chart below puts an end to that argument for now. If inflation were an issue, the velocity of M2 money stock would be trending upwards. Until it starts to trend upwards, inflation is not an issue and the focus should be on higher stock market prices.

 

Conclusion 

Don’t focus on the noise; focus on the trend as it’s your friend and everything else is your foe.

 

Published courtesy of the Tactical Investor

 

Originally posted 2017-12-08 15:43:34.

Corrections or Crashes?

 

Corrections or Crashes?

The Dow would have to drop below 9000 to break below the main uptrend line; an unlikely event in the near future. However, this does not mean it’s impossible. Every once in awhile the markets experience a monumental crash that can shave of as much as 60% of the Markets current value.   In this is instance we are using weekly charts; each bar on the chart represents one week’s worth of data.  Straight off the bat, you can see that back breaking corrections translate into long term buying opportunities.  Remember when there is blood in the streets and the masses are in panic mode, the opportunity is knocking.

Crashes are buying opportunities

Market Crashes are Buying Opportunities

The first zone comes into play at 16,000. If the Dow closes below this level on a monthly basis then there is a chance it could trade as low as 13,000.  However, based on the current market sentiment, there is very little likelihood of such a scenario coming to pass.  Mass Psychology is very clear when it comes to dealing with stock market crashes. Market crash on a note of Euphoria and bottom on a note of despair. Mass psychology states that optimum time to get into the markets is when the masses are in panic mode.

 

Anxiety index is a great market timing took

 

A fortress of support comes into play at the 13,000-13,500 ranges

To trade any lower than this level, the Dow would need to close below the above ranges on a quarterly basis. If it were to do that then the main uptrend line could be tested. Note that this trend will continue to trending upwards, so in 12 months, the trend line could move from the 9000 ranges to the 10,000 plus ranges.

 

Buy the Fear Sell the Joy 

The individuals who arrive at the party late are the first ones to come out and mistake a correction for a crash.The crowd panics when it sees blood in the streets; instead of joining the crowd do something different take advantage of stock market crashes and buy as the crowd dumps quality stocks and flees for the exits.

Crash or correction boils down to the angle of observance 

What is stunning to one, could appear ugly to another; it comes down to the angle of observance. Alter the angle and the image changes. Mass media and most experts try to alter the angle and direct you to see what they want you to see. They are in the fear “Selling Business” because fear sells, so they focus on creating a mountain out of a mole hill.

History clearly indicates that the Astute investors build very large stakes when there is blood in the streets.  Moreover, they keep building these positions as long as the main driving force is fear.  Take a look at the current Bull market; the Dow is trading at 22,000 and the masses are still nervous. It’s history in the making. The masses are always on the wrong side of the markets in the long run.

The astute investor always views financial disasters through a bullish lens.  Instead of panicking they take advantage of stock market crashes. 

Normality highly values its normal man. It educates children to lose themselves and to become absurd, and thus to be normal. Normal men have killed perhaps100, 000 of their fellow normal men in the last fifty years.
R. D. Laing
1927-1989, British Psychiatrist

Published courtesy of the Tactical Investor

 

 

Originally posted 2017-12-08 14:41:34.

Banking system: Why is the Fed pumping money?

Banking system: Why is the Fed pumping money?

The US central bank has pumped more than $200bn (£160bn) into the banking system  this week – the first time there’s been such an intervention since 2008.

The Federal Reserve’s aim was to stabilise what is usually a calm part of the market.

Interest rates in the so-called “repo market” had shot up to 10% in some cases – although the cost of borrowing in that market more typically hovers around the benchmark rate set by the Fed – around 2%.

So what happened and should we worry?

First things first: what’s the repo market?
Banks, hedge funds and other players borrow money regularly on a short-term basis to ensure their books are in order, no matter what their daily activities.

The borrowers typically offer government bonds or other high quality assets as collateral, which they repurchase, plus interest, when they repay the loan – often the next day.

Those repurchase agreements give the repo market its name.

What happened this week?
This is a huge market, with some $3tn changing hands each day, according to the US Office of Financial Research.

Under normal conditions, interest rates in the repo market are low, since the loans are considered safe and there’s plenty of cash on hand.

But this week the cost of borrowing shot up – toward 10% in some cases. And the rate at which banks lend to each other – the Fed’s benchmark – exceeded 2.25%, the top of its desired range. Full Story

 

Climate strike: What US children are sacrificing for the cause

Young people poured on to the streets of cities across the world on Friday, to try to force political leaders to act over climate change.

But they aren’t just leaving it to the politicians – in New York City, activists explained what they were doing in their own lives to help. Full Story

 

Walmart ceases e-cigarette sales

Walmart has said it will no longer sell e-cigarettes in the US, amid mounting calls to ban the products entirely.

The retailer said its decision was due to “uncertainty” about the rules governing e-cigarettes, which US health authorities have linked to more than 500 cases of lung injury.

US President Donald Trump last week said the US would prohibit sales of all flavoured e-cigarettes. Full Story

 

Justin Trudeau: Canada PM seeks to put blackface scandal behind him

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has sought to put the blackface scandal behind him with an announcement on gun control as he seeks re-election.

Flanked by cabinet ministers he said his party would ban military-style assault rifles if they win next month.

His campaign went into damage control on Wednesday night following the publication of a photo of Mr Trudeau wearing brownface at a costume gala. Full Story

 

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Originally posted 2019-09-21 09:07:34.

Tulsi Gabbard 2020 presidential Campaign

Tulsi Gabbard 2020 presidential Campaign

Tulsi Gabbard 2020 presidential Campaign: Release documents related to Saudis and 9/11

NEW YORK (AP) — Democratic presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard says federal authorities must release the findings of their investigation into the Saudi government’s role in the Sept. 11 attacks.

The Hawaii congresswoman said Tuesday in New York City that families who lost loved ones in the attacks “want the truth, and they deserve the truth.”

Gabbard was joined by victims’ relatives who have filed a federal lawsuit seeking the release of documents that they believe link the attackers to Saudi government officials.

She told family members gathered at a museum near the World Trade Center that it’s time to hold U.S. leaders accountable “for withholding the truth from the American people.”

Messages seeking comment were left with the U.S. Department of Justice and with an attorney for the Saudi government. Full Story

Hillary Clinton’s attacks on Tulsi Gabbard are embarrassing

Hillary Clinton has kept a relatively low profile since her embarrassing 2016 election defeat, popping up only occasionally to make out-of-touch elitist comments that confirm why she lost. So it was somewhat surprising to hear her weigh in on the 2020 Democratic primary with a truly bizarre comment about (of all people) Tulsi Gabbard.

Clinton accused the Hawaii congresswoman of being groomed by outside forces, saying: “I think they’ve got their eye on somebody who is currently in the Democratic primary and are grooming her to be the third-party candidate … She’s the favorite of the Russians.” There is some dispute about whether Clinton meant it was the Russians or Republicans who were pushing a third-party Gabbard candidacy, but a Clinton spokesman asked about the comments replied “if the nesting doll fits”, clearly implying it was dastardly Russians.
Gabbard immediately hit back hard, calling Clinton (accurately) “the queen of warmongers, embodiment of corruption, and personification of the rot that has sickened the Democratic party for so long”. While hosts of The View backed up Clinton, calling Gabbard a “useful idiot”, others such as the Vermont senator Bernie Sanders and South Bend’s mayor, Pete Buttigieg, suggested that Clinton ought to have had some evidence before implying something so outrageous about a Democratic elected official.

But it was typical Clinton. Paranoia about Russian influence has been ubiquitous among the Clinton set since 2016, in part because it helps to explain how the loss to Donald Trump wasn’t really Clinton’s fault. Full Story

 

Who is Tulsi Gabbard? The progressive 2020 hopeful praised by Bannon and the right

Gabbard’s unorthodox positions and conflicts with fellow Democrats could emerge as stumbling blocks in her campaignTom McCarthy in New YorkPresidential hopeful Tulsi Gabbard addresses an audience during a meet and greet, 17 February 2019, in North Hampton, New Hampshire.
Presidential hopeful Tulsi Gabbard addresses an audience during a meet and greet, on 17 February 2019, in North Hampton, New Hampshire. Photograph: Steven Senne/AP
Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard is not afraid to take a stand.

For a promising young Democrat in 2015, one of the seemingly worst places to be was on the wrong side of Hillary Clinton, who – barring some bizarre twist – was on her way to becoming America’s next president.

Yet Gabbard, then a 34-year-old second-term congresswoman from Hawaii with both combat experience and a radiant smile, had the temerity to cross Clinton by calling for additional debates between Clinton and her opponent in the Democratic primary race, Bernie Sanders. Full Story

 

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Brexit Boris Johnson prime minister ‘s 12 December election

Brexit Boris Johnson prime minister

Brexit Boris Johnson prime minister ‘s 12 December election plan has cleared its first hurdle as MPs backed it.

They are continuing to debate and will vote later on amendments, including a Labour proposal to change the date to 9 December.

The prime minister can only hold an election with the support of MPs – who have blocked it three times.

Efforts by opposition MPs to lower the voting age to 16 and allow EU nationals to take part have failed.

Proposed changes to the PM’s early election bill to extend voting rights were not selected for debate by the Deputy Speaker despite enjoying cross-party support.
It removes one major potential obstacle to a pre-Christmas poll as No 10 had said it would abandon the legislation needed for it if the franchise was altered at such a late stage.

One proposed change that will be considered is a call by Labour – backed by the other opposition parties – to hold the poll three days earlier on 9 December.

This, they argue, would ensure that university students are more likely to be able to take part because it would still be in term time.

MPs will vote on this amendment and one calling for the poll to be pushed back to 20 May before being asked to give their final approval to a 12 December poll at about 20:00 GMT. Full Story

 

Boeing accused of putting profit before safety by Senators

US lawmakers have accused Boeing of engaging in a “pattern of deliberate concealment” as it sought approval for its 737 Max 8 plane to fly.

The accusation came as Boeing chief executive Dennis Muilenburg was quizzed by the Senate Commerce Committee.

Senators said they had serious concerns that Boeing put profits over safety as it rushed to get clearance. Full Story

 

Philippines hit by deadly earthquake in south

The death toll from an earthquake in the southern Philippines has risen to seven, officials said, with many more injured.

The victims included a seven-year-old boy and his 44-year-old father who died after they were struck by a boulder, officials told the Reuters news agency. Full Story

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Area 51: Storming of secretive Nevada base

Area 51: Storming of secretive Nevada base

Fears that thousands of people could storm Area 51 on Friday were unfounded, with just several dozen arriving at the secretive US military base.

Millions had responded to a Facebook post in June calling for people to raid the facility in Nevada on 20 September to “see them aliens”.

But nobody attempted to enter the site and only one person was arrested – for urinating near the gate.

Area 51 has long been rumoured to house secrets about extraterrestrial life.
Why are people talking about Area 51?
In June, Matty Roberts, a student from California, posted a tongue-in-cheek Facebook event inviting people to charge at the base in large enough numbers to bypass security.

Within days of its launch, the event became a viral sensation, making headlines across the world. More than three million people expressed an interest in taking part.
The US Air Force warned that Area 51 was “an open training range for the US Air Force, and we would discourage anyone from trying to come into the area where we train American armed forces”.

What happened on Friday?
Not a lot.

Despite much anticipation surrounding the event, only around 75 people turned up at the front gate and nobody attempted to enter.

The only person to be arrested was a man caught urinating near the entrance and a woman was detained for an undisclosed reason, Associated Press reported.
The “raid” was more of a small-scale celebration, with enthusiasts dressing up and holding placards. Full Story

 

Saudi Arabia oil attacks: US to send troops to Saudi Arabia

The US has announced plans to send forces to Saudi Arabia in the wake of attacks against the country’s oil infrastructure.

Secretary of Defence Mark Esper told reporters the deployment would be “defensive in nature”. Total troop numbers have not yet been decided.

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have said they were behind the attacks against two oil facilities last week. Full Story

 

Climate protests: Marches worldwide against global warming

Millions of people around the world held a global climate strike on Friday, inspired by activist Greta Thunberg.

Protesters across continents waved placards and chanted slogans in what could be the biggest ever demonstration over global warming caused by humans.

“Our house is on fire”, Ms Thunberg said at a rally. “We will not just stand aside and watch.”

The day began in the Pacific and Asia and culminated in a massive demonstration in New York. Full Story

 

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Originally posted 2019-09-21 08:42:52.

Dow 22K Predicted In July 2017; Next Target Dow 30k?

Dow 22K Predicted In July 2017 Next Target Dow 30k

The Dow appears to have broken through the top of the Channel formation that fell in the 20,800-21,000 ranges. If it closes above 21,300 on a monthly basis then despite the markets being overbought, the Dow could surge past 22K before running into a strong zone of resistanceMarket Update June 18, 2017

Give the resiliency of this market; the Dow could very easily trade to 22K before it trades to 19K.  The masses need to show some enthusiasm; if they don’t and the market pulls back strongly, then it has to be viewed as a screaming buy.  For now, the masses seem to be locked in the pessimistic mode. The bullish sentiment has never traded to the 60% ranges even once this year; it did not even make it to the 55% ranges, and that is very telling. On the same token, the number of individuals in the neutral camp has generally continued to trend higher and higher.  Market Update July 6, 2017 

What’s next for the Dow?

Not only did the Dow trade to 22K but it surpassed this target and is now dangerously close to striking 23K.  The sentiment is still not bullish, so the path of least resistance is upward.  As for Dow 30K;  there is a good chance that the Dow could strike this target. We discuss that in full detail in this article titled “Dow Could Trade to 30K But not before This Happens ”

If you prefer to watch a video; then the video covers the essential points of the above article

Originally posted 2017-12-06 15:58:04.

Elizabeth Warren nabs 2020 backing of Iowa’s state treasurer

Elizabeth Warren

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — Presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren has announced the endorsement of one of Iowa’s last two uncommitted Democratic elected officials, state Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald.

“She’s the one I think can address the biggest problems we have, and that is the hollowing out of the middle class,” Fitzgerald said in an interview with The Associated Press. “She’s clear, you understand her message, and I want her fighting for me and all of us.”

Fitzgerald was an early supporter of then-Sen. Barack Obama, who went on to win the presidency. Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller also supported Obama but is endorsing Montana Gov. Steve Bullock for 2020. Iowa’s last remaining uncommitted statewide elected Democrat is Auditor Rob Sand.

Asked what stood out about Warren in a field of Democrats often aligned on key issues, Fitzgerald declared that Warren “is a Democrat, she is a capitalist, and she wants to make our system work.” He said he’d do whatever the Warren campaign needed to help her win the caucuses.

Warren’s organization is seen as one of the strongest in Iowa, but compared with the other top-tier contenders in the field Warren has been relatively slow to roll out endorsements in the state. After a trickle of endorsement announcements, her first major haul of supporters in Iowa came out just last week, after her strong performance in the primary debate in Houston.

Fitzgerald marks Warren’s 25th Iowa endorsement and her sixth endorsement from an Iowa elected official. Full Story

 

Jimmy Carter says he couldn’t have managed presidency at 80

ATLANTA (AP) — Weeks shy of his 95th birthday, former President Jimmy Carter said he doesn’t believe he could have managed the most powerful office in the world at 80 years old.

Carter, who earlier this year became the longest-lived chief executive in American history, didn’t tie his comments to any of his fellow Democrats running for president in 2020, but two leading candidates, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, would turn 80 during their terms if elected. Full Story

 

Sri Lankan doctors strike over salary ‘injustice’

COLOMBO, Sri Lanka (AP) — Doctors at state-run hospitals across Sri Lanka began a 24-hour strike on Wednesday, demanding that the government resolve what they say is a salary “injustice.”

Two years ago, the government gave an unusually high salary increase to legal officers in the government sector, creating what Dr. Haritha Aluthge, secretary of the Government Medical Officers Association, called “a severe injustice to doctors and other professionals.” Full Story

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Permabear – A Special Kind Of A Stupid One

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Nothing about 1987 stock market crash anniversary

Nickel Stocks Has Put In A long Term Bottom

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Originally posted 2019-09-18 10:25:24.

Brexit news: Talks ‘should not be a pretence’ warns Barnier

Brexit news: Talks 'should not be a pretence' warns Barnier

Brexit news: The UK and EU “should not pretend to be negotiating” a Brexit  deal if there are no new proposals on the table, the EU’s chief negotiator has said.

Michel Barnier said the UK telling the EU what it does not like about the current agreement was “not enough”.

He cast doubt on two ideas put forward by the UK – a single all-Ireland zone for agriculture and livestock and a Northern Irish veto over EU rules.

Boris Johnson has said there is a “landing zone” for an agreement.

He has said a deal is possible at a crucial summit of EU leaders on 17 October – although ministers have said they are reluctant to reveal the details of new proposals in advance for fear they will be “rubbished” by the EU.
Mr Johnson has insisted he will not accept a further delay beyond 31 October despite MPs passing a law requiring him to seek an extension if there is no deal by 19 October.

After meeting Mr Barnier and Mr Juncker in Luxembourg on Monday, Mr Johnson said the process of trying to get a deal on the terms of exit would be accelerated.

‘Not enough’
Briefing the European Parliament, Mr Juncker said the lunch had been “friendly and constructive” but there had been no progress on the main sticking point – the UK’s demand that the Northern Irish backstop should be removed from the current agreement. Full Story

 

Live facial recognition surveillance ‘must stop’

UK police and companies must stop using live facial recognition for public surveillance, politicians and campaigners have said.

The technology allows faces captured on CCTV to be checked in real time against watch lists, often compiled by police.

Privacy campaigners say it is inaccurate, intrusive and infringes on an individual’s right to privacy. Full Story

 

Inside Afghanistan’s ‘no-man’s land’

Earlier this year the UN released data showing that more civilians were killed by allies than insurgents in Afghanistan.

The BBC has gained incredibly rare access to Taliban-controlled territory, in Faryab province, to meet those civilians most at risk. Full Story

 

Israel election: Netanyahu and rival headed for deadlock

Unofficial results in Israel’s second election in five months suggest it is too close to call, Israeli media say.

Incumbent PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s party and that of his main challenger, Benny Gantz, are neck and neck with 32 seats each, the Kan public broadcaster says.

A prime minister needs to command a 61-seat majority in parliament. The smaller Yisrael Beiteinu party appears to hold the balance of power.

Official partial results are expected on Wednesday morning. Full Story

 

Other articles of interest

Stock Market Crash Stories Experts Push Equate to Nonsense

Most Hated Stock Market Bull can’t be stopped by weak economy

Permabear – A Special Kind Of A Stupid One

Technology Driven Deflation Will Kill The Inflation Monster

Nothing about 1987 stock market crash anniversary

Nickel Stocks Has Put In A long Term Bottom

AMD vs Intel

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Originally posted 2019-09-18 10:15:05.