What caused Black Monday: The stock market crash of 1987?
Monday October 19,1987, is known as Black Monday. On that day, stockbrokers in New York, London, Hong Kong, Berlin, Tokyo and just about any other city with an exchange stared at the figures running across their displays with a growing sense of dread. A financial strut had buckled and the strain brought world markets tumbling down.
In the United States, sell orders piled upon sell orders as the Dow shed value of nearly 22%. There had been talk of the U.S. entering a bear cycle – the bulls had been running since 1982 – but the markets gave very little warning to the then-new Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. Greenspan hurried to slash interest rates and called upon banks to flood the system with liquidity. He had expected a drop in the value of the dollar due to an international tiff with the other G7 nations over the dollar’s value, but the seemingly worldwide financial meltdown came as an unpleasant surprise that Monday.
Exchanges also were busy trying to lock out program trading orders. The idea of using computer systems to engage in large-scale trading strategies was still relatively new to Wall Street and the consequences of a system capable of placing thousands of orders during a crash never had been tested. These computer programs automatically began to liquidate stocks as certain loss targets were hit, pushing prices lower. To the dismay of the exchanges, program trading led to a domino effect as the falling markets triggered more stop-loss orders. The frantic selling activated yet another round of stop-loss orders, which dragged markets into a downward spiral. Since the same programs also automatically turned off all buying, bids vanished all around the stock market at basically the same time. Full Story
The Crash of ’87, From the Wall Street Players Who Lived It
On Wall Street, when things decline, you tend to remember. When things decline a lot, you remember the date. Oct. 19, 1987, is one such example. The biggest single-day stock market collapse in history—a 23 percent drop—rendered once-trusted ideas useless and redefined the financial landscape for market professionals.
One of them was a rising Salomon Brothers bond salesman named Michael Lewis, who had yet to pen Liar’s Poker. “The markets in a panic are like a country during a coup, and seen in retrospect that is how they were that day,” he would later write of the chaos he witnessed. “One small group of people with its old, established way of looking at the world is hustled from its seat of power.”
Black Monday, as the day became known, is part of financial history’s fossil record, a divide between old and new markets. It was the first significant instance of computer-driven trading run amok. The nascent equity options market saw assumptions based on the Black-Scholes model overturned and replaced by a more complex world of volatility skews. And Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, just two months on the job, got to glimpse a market panic and sell his first “Greenspan Put” under the U.S. equity market. Full Story
Remembering the worst day in Wall Street history
It was a day so terrible, it will forever be known as Black Monday.
On October 19, 1987, the stock market collapsed. The Dow plunged an astonishing 22.6%, the biggest one-day percentage loss in history. Even bigger than the 1929 stock market crash, just before the Great Depression.
Nothing since Black Monday has come close. Not the selloff after the September 11 terror attacks or the 2008 financial crisis.
On that day in 1987, as the cameras rolled on the frenzied floor of the New York Stock Exchange, prices on the ticker tumbled, the panic spread, and the crash worsened. By the closing bell, the Dow stood at 1,738.74, down 508 points. Full Story
Facing US ban, Huawei emerging as stronger tech competitor
SHENZHEN, China (AP) — Long before President Donald Trump threatened to cut off Huawei’s access to U.S. technology, the Chinese telecom equipment maker was pouring money into research that reduces its need for American suppliers.
Huawei’s founder says instead of crippling the company, the export curbs are making it a tougher competitor by forcing managers to focus resources on their most important products.
Little-known to Americans, Huawei Technologies Ltd. is the No. 2 smartphone brand worldwide and the biggest maker of switching gear at the heart of phone networks. Its equipment is used by 45 of the 50 biggest global phone carriers.
Huawei is a pioneer in the emerging field of next-generation, or 5G, telecoms. It promises not just faster internet but support for self-driving cars and other futuristic applications. That fuels Western security concerns and makes 5G politically sensitive. The U.S. claims the company might aid Chinese spying, though Huawei denies that and American officials have provided no evidence.
Huawei needs some American innovations, especially Google services used on Android phones, but industry experts say the company is increasingly self-sufficient after spending 485 billion yuan ($65 billion) on research and development over the past decade.
“They have a strategy to become completely independent from U.S. technology. And in many areas they have become independent,” said Bengt Nordstrom of North Stream, a research firm in Stockholm. Full Story
Protest likely to greet Trump fundraising trip in California
RIO RANCHO, N.M. (AP) — President Donald Trump is making a rare visit to California, a Democratic stronghold where he is expected to rake in millions of dollars during a series of fundraisers for his reelection effort that are almost certain to be met with jeering protests.
Trump has routinely mocked California over its liberal culture, policies and politics. His visit Tuesday and Wednesday signals that despite the state’s decidedly leftward swing in recent years there are still plenty of wealthy Republicans who support him. Full Story
Iran’s supreme leader: No talks with the US at any level
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran’s supreme leader announced on Tuesday that “there will be no talks with the U.S. at any level” — remarks apparently meant to end all speculation about a possible U.S.-Iran meeting between the two countries’ presidents at the U.N. later this month.
Iranian state TV quoted Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as saying this is the position of the entire leadership of the country and that “all officials in the Islamic Republic unanimously believe” this.
“There will be no talks with the U.S. at any level,” he said. Full Story
Trudeau news: Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party has retained power in a narrow Canadian election win but he will now be prime minister of a minority government.
The Liberals are projected to win 157 seats, 13 short of a majority, and will find it harder to pass legislation in Mr Trudeau’s second term.
The opposition Conservatives are expected to win the popular vote but have not translated that into seats.
They are projected to take 121, up from the 95 they held before.
Although Monday night’s results saw a sharp decline in seats for the country’s left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP), its leader, Jagmeet Singh, could become the kingmaker.
The NDP is projected to take 24 seats in the 338-seat parliament.
Quebec’s separatist party, the Bloc Québécois, which competes only in that province, fared much better. It is expected to take 32 seats, compared to the 10 it won in 2015.
Turnout is currently listed at 66%.
The federal election was seen as a referendum on Mr Trudeau, who had a bumpy first term, tainted by scandal.
Mr Trudeau told cheering supporters in Montreal that voters had “rejected division and negativity… and they rejected cuts and austerity and voted in favour of a progressive agenda and strong action on climate change”.
He said: “Thank you for having faith in us to move our country in the right direction.”
And to those who did not back him, he promised his party would govern for everyone. Full Story
The Kenyan ghost writers doing ‘lazy’ Western students’ work
University students in Europe and the US are paying Kenyans to do their academic work for them.
The global market for academic writing is estimated to be worth $1bn (£770m) annually.
For some, ghost-writing university essays for students who don’t have the time or desire to do them can be lucrative, especially in countries with high unemployment among young graduates. Full Story
The race to build a flying electric taxi
For any commuter the prospect of being whisked to and from work in a fraction of the time it usually takes is pretty irresistible.
No traffic jams, no train delays and no cold platforms – what’s not to love?
This is the promise of more than a hundred companies developing electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. Full Story
Boris Johnson: LONDON (AP) — British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was headed for a showdown Tuesday with lawmakers who want to put the brakes on his drive to push his European Union divorce bill through the House of Commons in just three days and take Britain out of the European Union by Oct. 31.
Johnson said that if Parliament imposes a longer timetable and “decides to delay everything until January or possibly longer,” he will withdraw the bill and call a vote on holding a snap general election.
“I will in no way allow months more of this,” said Johnson, who took power in July vowing that the U.K. will leave the EU on Oct. 31, come what may. His only hope of doing that is to pass the Brexit-implementing bill through Britain’s fractious Parliament before then.
Johnson’s announcement piles pressure on lawmakers as they consider whether to approve the government’s legislation, which would finally take Britain out of the EU — more than three years after voters opted to leave the bloc.
The bill faces two votes Tuesday, with lawmakers first being asked to approve it in principle, followed by a vote on the government’s schedule for debate and possible amendments.
Johnson said backing the bill would allow lawmakers to “turn the page and allow this Parliament and this country to begin to heal and unite.” Full Story
Iraq: American troops leaving Syria cannot stay in Iraq
BAGHDAD (AP) — U.S. troops leaving Syria and heading to neighboring Iraq do not have permission to stay in the country, Iraq’s military said Tuesday as American forces continued to pull out of northern Syria after Turkey’s invasion of the border region. Full Story
Russia, Turkey leaders hold talks on fate of Syria border
ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — The presidents of Turkey and Russia met in the Black Sea resort town of Sochi on Tuesday, hours before a five-day cease-fire between Turkish troops and Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria was set to expire. Full Story
Tactical Investor Volatility Index Readings are Soaring
Stock Market Trends: Volatility Index readings have surged to new a high (as shown in the header image above), which means that extreme behaviour in all areas can be expected in and out of the markets. Additionally, we added new psychological data points to the V-Indicator and we suspect that this new high could correspond to a new development in the Coronavirus outbreak. Let’s hope it’s a positive one.
The ETF Trend Portfolio is our most conservative portfolio, so in the light of recent developments, one of which is that V-readings have soared to new highs, we are going to err on the side of caution. This is a dangerous development as over the past 12 months we added a new psychological component to this indicator, and this new high corresponds to the Coronavirus outbreak.
We are not in the “panic” generating business, so there is no need to panic, but this development could mean (operative word being “could”) that China is not telling the full story. The dangerous development is in regards to extreme market volatility; the market could shed several thousand points and then recoup these losses just as fast. Most traders are not prepared for this type of action, so when the market’s pullback strongly or appear to be crashing, they will throw the baby out with the bathwater and in doing so make a colossal mistake.
China Could be downplaying the situation
In all likelihood, China is releasing selective pieces of data, but in general, the world is used to this. However, what could trigger a sharp reaction from the markets is if this data proves to be damaging. There have been previous scares before and in each case, the markets sold off, but the sell-off proved to be a buying opportunity. The last sell-off was due to the Ebola virus scare back in Oct of 2018.
In the long run, this is not a negative development as the long term trend is still bullish, so if it comes to pass, we will have an opportunity to get into stocks and ETF’s at a discount. We have adjusted pending sell orders, stops and in some cases, cancelled pending orders on the following ETF’s. Bottom line while prudence is warranted, Panic is not; hence focus on the trend and ignore the noise.
Volatility Index readings are high but we are not going to follow the herd
Hence the statement below refers to several dangerous trends but not the ones that come straight to one’s mind:
This is a dangerous development as over the past 12 months we added a new psychological component to this indicator, and this new high corresponds to the Coronavirus outbreak. Interim Market Update Jan 31, 2020
We want to clarify what we mean by dangerous (in the above statement) as we don’t want anyone to falsely assume that we are embracing some of the wild conspiracy theories being put forward regarding this virus. We analysed the data thoroughly, especially the psychological data. We also looked at data evaluated by other level headed experts; many thanks to our subscribers for providing links to some of these experts, which once again solidifies our claim that we are fortunate enough to some have some of the best minds out there as part of our community. We have concluded that the Coronavirus issue is being blown out of proportion.
Weaponised news; A dangerous trend with no end in sight
The first trend is that news is going to be weaponised to the extreme to support whatever narrative a given group of individuals have decided to embrace or force on a subset of the crowd. Secondly, as V-readings have no surged to new highs, the market will experience more random bouts of extreme volatility and this should be embraced when the trend is positive.
Thirdly, violence (as in wars, crime, etc), wild weather patterns will be more prevalent going forward and extreme and we mean extremely stupid behaviour is going to be embraced. Lastly, polarisation levels are going to rise to such an extreme that we could reach a point where a simple disagreement set off something akin to a mini civil war.
Back to the Coronavirus issue:
In Asia, masks are selling out like hotcakes and we suspect many stocks that are in the vaccine creation field have experienced huge price increases. In other words, a group of companies are making out like bandits, while the masses being fleeced again. The data out there states that this virus has a mortality rate of 3% and no new data has come out refuting it.
Therefore we find it quite interesting that many financial experts with no background in medicine or psychology have gone out of their way to state that the situation is on the verge of becoming a pandemic. Too many experts believe in the deep state, while there is an apparatus that could be called the “deep state”, their understanding of this topic is limited at best.
The way these power brokers work is to indoctrinate people, so the players are willing participants or blind participants (blind as in being mentally blind and not physically blind) which boil down to the same thing. These individuals are used as cannon fodder; the objective is achieved by pandering to their wild fantasies. This objective is achieved by allow Gossip artists to masquerade as reporters. In the old days, they would be called fisherwoman.
As of now, we have found no objective data that backs the many claims non- experts are pushing regarding the Coronavirus and the only dangerous trends we see are the ones we have addressed above. Could the situation change? Yes, anything is possible, but history reveals that most naysayers are full of hot air as the world was supposed to have officially ended a long time ago
We had pandemics before so this is nothing new
As I am typing, people are dying all over the world. In the time it took me to type this sentence, more than 15 people died. Seventy-eight thousand people have died today, and the number will rise to 80,000 or more by the time you get this update. So far this year 9,500,000 people have died, and that number rises every second. One could state that death is a pandemic, but no one is screaming about that issue. Smoking-related and or Cancer-related deaths could be also classified as a pandemic as more than 16.6 million will die this year from both, and yet no one makes a big deal (9.6 million from cancer and seven million-plus from smoking).
To date, roughly 2860 people have died from the coronavirus, and suddenly it’s the new Black Death. To be clear, we are not making light of the situation, but so much attention is being given to this one agent when compared to other agents of death. Here is an interesting fact; there are twice as many new births as deaths on a global basis. Live data on world deaths, birth rates, coronavirus deaths, etc. can be obtained from here http://bit.ly/32wVaQA
High Volatility Index Readings: Use This To Your Advantage
There have been more than a dozen outbreaks since 1980 and with far deadlier outcomes in some instances, but if you look at the chart above, after a knee jerk reaction, the markets trended higher. Hence, the Tactical Investor saying; “every disaster leads to a hidden opportunity” and the only way to spot that opportunity is not to give in to panic. We envision a similar outcome for the coronavirus, the markets could still sell-off but that sell-off should be viewed through a bullish lens.
The mass mindset is hard wired to panic. One can overcome this shortfall by observing this behavior impartially and then ask this simple question “why am I doing something that has never led to a positive outcome”. Secondly, as we have advocated for years, one should maintain a trading journal and the best time to put pen to paper or fingers to a keyboard is when the markets are tanking. Make a note of the emotions that are swirling through your mind. Jot down some of the headlines the media is pushing out and observe the reactions from your fellowman. This information will prove to be priceless in the weeks, months, years and decades to come.
The markets are trading in the extremely overbought ranges on the weekly charts, and in theory, they should let out some steam, but the monthly charts, for now, are exerting more upward pressure than they normally do. It should be noted that the weekly charts also move relatively slowly, so there is still time for the markets to let out some steam.
Courtesy of Tactical Investor
What Will The Stock Market Return In 2020?
It’s the most wonderful time of the year — when investment gurus unveil their predictions for what the stock market will return in the coming year.
We expect investment experts to have crystal balls that allow them to see how the stock market is going to perform in the future. Of course, they don’t have crystal balls, and their predictions often aren’t helpful.
The problem with expert predictions of the stock market isn’t that they are wrong — which they often are — the future is uncertain, and we shouldn’t expect anyone to predict it. The problem is that investors often listen to these predictions and base investment decisions on them.
There are better ways to cope with the uncertainty of the 2020 market than listening to predictions. Before we get to those, let’s review what we can predict and what we cannot.
What We Can Predict
While the stock market follows a cycle but defies prediction, history can provide insight into what we might expect from the markets in any given year.
The histogram below displays the dispersion of returns on the S&P 500 since 1928:
As you can see, in about two-thirds of the years, the market is up and about one-third of the time it is down. The distribution is roughly a bell curve with a positive skew and a fat left tail (meaning large negative returns happen more often than a bell curve would predict). Full Story
The Top 15 Stocks to Buy in 2020
Heading into a new year, all investors want to know is what stocks they should be buying.
At the beginning of this year, I attempted to answer that question by compiling a portfolio of the top 15 stocks to buy for 2020. In mid-February, that portfolio of stocks was up a whopping 22% year-to-date.
Then, the novel coronavirus outbreak went global. Russia and Saudi Arabia started an all-out oil price war. Financial markets across the globe fell off a cliff. So did my portfolio of top stocks to buy for 2020.
But, I think now may be as good a time as any to double down on these top stocks. Coronavirus headwinds are fleeting. They will pass. Once they do, these long-term growth stocks will get back to winning.
In no particular order, the top 15 stocks to buy for 2020 in March are:
Luckin Coffee (NYSE:LK)
Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND)
Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC)
The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD)
Stitch Fix (NASDAQ:SFIX)
Without further ado, then, let’s take a look where these top stocks to buy for 2020 are going next. Full Story
20 Predictions for the Stock Market in 2020
t’s a brand-new year, and boy, does 2020 have some big shoes to fill. Last year, we witnessed the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) gallop higher by nearly 29%, which is quadruple the historic average annual return of the stock market, inclusive of dividend reinvestment and when adjusted for inflation.
The big question, of course, is what might the current year hold for the broader market and investors? The following 20 predictions for the stock market in 2020 may offer some insight.
1. There will be no recession in 2020
Probably the biggest question on investors’ minds is whether a recession is brewing. While that does look to be the case following a very brief inversion of the two-year and 10-year Treasury bonds in late August, data from Credit Suisse, dating back to 1978, shows that the average recession doesn’t pop up until 22 months after the inversion occurs. Similarly, stock market returns don’t turn negative until an average of 18 months after an inversion, putting the market on track to lose its steam during the first quarter of 2021 (assuming these averages hold true).
For the time being, the longest economic expansion in U.S. history looks poised to continue.
2. The stock market will have another positive year
Despite the stock market delivering returns that were well above the historic norms in 2019, this year should deliver more gains to investors. Full Story
If there was such a thing as a perfect food, eggs would be a contender. They’re readily available, easy to cook, affordable and packed with protein.
“The egg is meant to be something that has all the right ingredients to grow an organism, so obviously it’s very nutrient dense,” says Christopher Blesso, associate professor of nutritional science at the University of Connecticut in the US.
Eating eggs alongside other food can help our bodies absorb more vitamins, too. For example, one study found that adding an egg to salad can increase how much vitamin E we get from the salad.
But for decades, eating eggs has also been controversial due to their high cholesterol content – which some studies have linked to an increased risk of heart disease. One egg yolk contains around 185 milligrams of cholesterol, which is more than half of the 300mg daily amount of cholesterol that the US dietary guidelines recommended until recently.
Does that mean eggs, rather than an ideal food, might actually be doing us harm?
Cholesterol, a yellowish fat produced in our liver and intestines, can be found in every one of our body’s cells. We normally think of it as “bad”. But cholesterol is a crucial building block in our cell membranes. It also is needed for the body to make vitamin D, and the hormones testosterone and estrogen. Full Story
Israel election: Netanyahu in tough fight in this year’s second vote
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the snap election after failing to form a governing coalition with a viable majority after April’s vote.
The final opinion polls put his right-wing Likud party neck and neck with its main challenger, the centrist Blue and White party led by former military chief Benny Gantz.
Smaller parties could therefore have a big say in the final outcome. Full Story
Hong Kong: Looking back at 100 days of protests
Hong Kong has been gripped by huge and at times violent protests since an extradition bill was proposed which would have made it possible for people in Hong Kong to be extradited to mainland China.
The unrest has seen millions of people pressure the government to withdraw the bill and call for full democracy. Full Story
NEW YORK (AP) — Ric Ocasek, The Cars frontman whose deadpan vocal delivery and lanky, sunglassed look defined a rock era with chart-topping hits like “Just What I Needed,” was discovered dead Sunday afternoon in his Manhattan apartment.
The New York Police Department said that officers found the 75-year-old Ocasek at about 4 p.m. after responding to a 911 call. They said there were no signs of foul play and that the medical examiner was to determine a cause of death.
The death comes a year after The Cars were inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame, followed by an announcement by model Paulina Porizkova on social media that she and Ocasek had separated after 28 years of marriage. The pair first met while filming the music video for “Drive,” another Cars hit.
Ocasek, who sang, played guitar and wrote most of the band’s songs, and Benjamin Orr, who played bass and also sang, were ex-hippie buddies who formed The Cars in Boston in 1976. They were a decade older than many of their modern-rock compatriots but became one of the most essential American bands of the late 1970s and 1980s with their fusion of new wave, 1960s pop and 1970s glam.
Ocasek’s minimalist, half-spoken deadpan vocals set made the band’s sound, and his long, lanky appearance formed their lasting image.
The first three songs on their 1978 self-titled first album were all hit singles and remain widely known classics and oldies radio airplay: “Good Times Roll,” ″My Best Friend’s Girl” and “Just What I Needed.” Full Story
Trump says US locked and loaded in response to drone attack
WASHINGTON (AP) — Tensions are flaring in the Persian Gulf after President Donald Trump said the U.S. is “locked and loaded” to respond to a weekend drone assault on Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure that his aides blamed on Iran.
The attack, which halved the kingdom’s oil production and sent crude prices spiking , led Trump to authorize the release of U.S. strategic reserves should they be necessary to stabilize markets. Full Story
As shock wears off, mental health concerns grow in Bahamas
HIGH ROCK, Bahamas (AP) — One woman and her husband huddled on top of a bedroom dresser for two days, surrounded by floodwaters.
Another man sat in his wheelchair for nearly 48 hours in water up to his chest, alone in his home.
A third rescued a friend who sat in shock when part of a building where they sought shelter blew away.
Stories of survival are trickling out across northern Bahamas as the initial shock wears off from Hurricane Dorian, one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in history. Full Story
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. tried to build its case Monday that Iran was behind the fiery weekend attack on key Saudi Arabian oil facilities that raised new war worries and sent energy prices spiraling worldwide. Iran denied responsibility, while President Donald Trump said the United States was “locked and loaded” to respond if necessary.
American officials released satellite images of the damage at the heart of the kingdom’s crucial Abqaiq oil processing plant and a key oil field, and two U.S. officials said the attacker used multiple cruise missiles and drone aircraft.
The Americans alleged the pattern of destruction suggested Saturday’s attack did not come from neighboring Yemen, as claimed by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels there. A Saudi military spokesman later made a similar accusation, alleging “Iranian weapons” had been used in the assault.
Iran rejected the allegations, and a government spokesman said there now was “absolutely no chance” of a hoped-for meeting between Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Trump at the U.N. General Assembly next week.
For his part, Trump sent mixed signals, saying his “locked and loaded” government waited for Saudi confirmation of Iran being behind the attack while later tweeting that the U.S. didn’t need Mideast oil “but will help our Allies!”
One U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, said the U.S. was considering dispatching additional military resources to the Gulf but that no decisions had been made. Full Story
Warren offers anti-corruption plan central to her campaign
NEW YORK (AP) — Elizabeth Warren has released a proposal aimed at government corruption, providing a detailed policy roadmap for a fight she says is at the core of her presidential campaign.
The Democratic senator from Massachusetts is announcing the plan Monday in Manhattan’s Washington Square Park, near the site of the Triangle Shirtwaist Co., which caught fire in 1911, killing 140-plus workers. Many of those deaths later were attributed to neglected safety features, such as doors that were locked inside the factory. Full Story
Auto strike idles more than 50 GM factories and warehouses
DETROIT (AP) — More than 49,000 members of the United Auto Workers went on strike Monday against General Motors, bringing more than 50 factories and parts warehouses to a standstill in the union’s first walkout against the No. 1 U.S. automaker in over a decade.
Workers left factories and formed picket lines shortly after midnight in the dispute over a new four-year contract. The union’s top negotiator said in a letter to the company that the strike could have been averted had the company made its latest offer sooner. Full Story
The Stock Market Crash of 1929 began on October 24. While it is remembered for the panic selling in the first week, the largest falls occurred in the following two years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average did not bottom out until July 8, 1932, by which time it had fallen 89% from its September 1929 peak, making it the biggest bear market in Wall Street’s history. The Dow Jones did not return to its 1929 high until November 1954.
BREAKING DOWN ‘Stock Market Crash Of 1929’
The stock market crash of 1929 followed a bull market which had seen the Dow Jones rise 400% in five years. But with industrial companies trading at price-earnings ratios of 15, valuations did not appear unreasonable after a decade of record productivity growth in manufacturing – that is until you take into account the public utility holding companies.
By 1929, thousands of electricity companies had been consolidated into holding companies which were themselves owned by other holding companies, which controlled about two-thirds of American industry. Ten layers separated the top and bottom of some of these complex highly leveraged pyramids. As the Federal Trade Commission reported in 1928, the unfair practices these holding companies were involved in — like bilking subsidiaries through service contracts and fraudulent accounting involving depreciation and inflated property values — were a “menace to the investor.”
The stock market crashed in 1929, plummeting into a correction.
Margin buying, lack of legal protections, overpriced stocks and Fed policy contributed to the crash.
There are ways to protect investors can protect a portfolio from downturns.
On October 16, 1929, Yale economist Irving Fisher wrote in the New York Times that “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Eight days later, on October 24, 1929, the stock market began a four-day crash on what became known as Black Thursday. This crash cost investors more than World War I and was one of the catalysts for the Great Depression. Irving Fisher’s declaration went down as the worst stock market prediction of all time.
Before the 1929 stock market crash: Risks and warning signs
Hindsight is always 20/20 but in the Roaring Twenties, optimism and affluence had risen like never before. The economy grew by 42% (real GDP went from $688 billion in 1920 to $977 billion in 1929), average income rose by about $1,500 and unemployment stayed below 4%. In the wake of World War I, the U.S. was producing nearly half of global output and mass production made consumer goods like refrigerators, washing machines, radios and vacuums accessible to the average household. Investing in stocks became like baseball – a national pastime. As newspaper headlines trumpeted stories about teachers, chauffeurs and maids making millions in the stock market, concerns about risk evaporated.
Why The 1929 Stock Market Crash Could Happen In 2018?
As U.S. stocks continue soaring to record high after record high, investors anticipating an inevitable plunge have yet another cause for sleepless nights. The CAPE ratio, a measure of stock valuations devised by Nobel Laureate economist Robert Shiller of Yale University, is now at a higher level than it was before the Great Crash of 1929, the Financial Times reports, adding that the only time the CAPE was even higher preceded the dotcom crash of 2000-02. However, the FT notes, there are some differences between 1929 and 2018 that make the CAPE parallel less terrifying for investors.
From their previous bear market lows reached in intraday trading on March 6, 2009, through their closing values on January 12, 2018, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has gained 318% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has advanced 299%. Regarding the CAPE valuation analysis, there are several key limitations.
Drawbacks of CAPE
According to investment manager Rob Arnott, the founder, chairman and CEO of Research Associates, CAPE has been on an upward trend over time. This makes sense both to him and to the FT since the U.S. as progressed from being essentially an emerging market to the world’s dominant economy during the course of more than a century. As a result, both believe that an increasing earnings multiple for U.S. stocks would be justified. While the current value of CAPE is above its long term trend line, the difference is much smaller than in 1929, as Arnott’s detailed research paper shows.
The dot.com mania underwent a backbreaking correction before the market blasted off and topped out at the end of 1999. The image above illustrates that Bitcoin also experienced such a correction, but because of the large follow through move it appears to be nothing but a blip. Consider that from a high of 2977 (June 10, 2017); it dropped to a low of 1808 set on the 15th of July 2017; it shed roughly 40% in that short period (illustrated by the green box). Everyone knows what followed.
Misery loves company, but it tends to Pay’s very poorly in the long run
It looks grim, the media is pumping end of the world type scenarios, strong bulls are showing signs of weakness, and even contrarian investors are starting to break. Pure contrarians are smarter than the masses, but they do have flaws; the smartest investors are the ones that put the principles of mass psychology into play. They observe the mass mindset, and they understand that even when fear starts to creep into the equation, they are compelled to ask this question: Was the crowd in a state of euphoria when the market topped out? If the answer is “no”, then no matter how terrible the picture might look, the end game is that the crowd is being set up for a false downward move. And the normal response would “why”. Simple answer, this is an advanced form of Pavlovian training.
The Bitcoin crash was like the Tulip Bubble, it was a scam from the beginning. The ones that made the money were the ones that got in first, the ones that got in late were handed their heads on a stinky tin platter. Never get into an investment when the masses are euphoric, buy when there is blood in the streets and vice versa.
Stock market crashes are different as they don’t represent one sector, so it is just a matter of time before the markets will revert to the norm. From a mass psychology perspective, stock market crashes are nothing but long-term buying opportunities. Forget about the what happens if the stock market crashes scenario, and focus on what you would do if stocks you were dying to own before are now selling for pennies on the dollar.
Pavlovian Type Training Is Being Used On The Masses
When the market does put in a bottom after experiencing a backbreaking correction, and then goes on to mount a powerful rally; the crowd imprints the following data in their minds. Buy the pullback, because it is a fake trap to drive us out; they also start to believe in the following mantra “the stronger the pullback, the better the opportunity”. Next time when the Market puts in a top, bullish sentiment will remain unusually high, and that will be the warning to students of Mass Psychology that the real skull crushing correction is on its way. Again, we point you in the direction of the not too distant Bitcoin spectacular bull market and the equally spectacular crash. From low to high Bitcoin tacked on 11,000% in gains and the masses still assumed that the only direction it could trade was up. When it topped the Bitcoin crowd was beyond ecstatic.
As for whether the bitcoin crash is over, we believe that one should wait a bit longer before jumping in and for all intents and purposes, Bitcoin is highly unlikely to test the 20,000 ranges for a very long time. On the downside, bitcoin is likely to test the 3000 ranges with a possible overshoot to the 2,500 ranges before a meaningful bottom takes hold. At this point in time, there are many other stocks that look interesting and far more attractive than bitcoin, for example, PG, MRK, TCEHY, etc
Courtesy of Tactical Investor
Random views on Bitcoin Crash
So, you’ve heard about Bitcoin and you want to invest…
You’re not the only one! Bitcoin has been one of the best investments you could have made in the last 5 years. People are still using it to make a lot of money, in many different ways.
In this guide, I will teach you the history of Bitcoin, the future of Bitcoin and how to understand what goes into a Bitcoin price prediction. We will look at predictions for different years, including the Bitcoin price prediction 2019. I will answer the questions that are on everybody’s minds, like “Will Bitcoin crash?” and “Why is Bitcoin rising?”.
Understanding how to predict and invest is the first step to building a successful portfolio. However, with all investments, there are risks involved. So, you should always speak to a financial advisor before making any major decisions. Before going to Bitcoin price prediction, let’s go back a little to the basics. I assume, as you are reading this guide, you must have heard of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the world’s first digital currency and it has been very popular over the last year! A lot of people have made large profits by buying Bitcoin for a low price and then selling it for a high price.
Confused? Well, let me explain.
Bitcoin is a currency, just like US Dollars, Japanese Yen or British Pounds. It can be bought, sold and exchanged for goods and services. Full Story
Is Now The Time to Buy Bitcoin? The 2019 Edition
Many investors are still hesitant about Bitcoin ending the bearish period, despite Bitcoin’s recent consolidation price action and market fundamentals looking strong
How will you know if it’s the time to buy Bitcoin? In this article we’ll present signs that may indicate on an end to the current bear market.
Timing the market is almost impossible – meet the DCA option.
Most experienced traders know that markets are primarily driven by emotions, and the key to cracking them is understanding the market psychology as well as being able to interpret technical analysis and chart fundamentals.
Despite this public knowledge, many of us still fall into the same traps that cause us to either lose money or miss out on significant investment opportunities. This is not just limited to Bitcoin and crypto.
The current sentiment around the crypto markets indicates that the majority may be falling for yet another emotionally driven trap.
Ironically, people rushed to buy Bitcoin when it first hit $10,000 and $15,000 in late 2017, yet now when the price is around the mid $3K range (discount of over 80% from the all-time high), there is steady progress and strong market fundamentals, buyers seem to be more hesitant than ever about entering the market and buying Bitcoin.
Perhaps it’s the fear of being yet another victim of the market crashes we’ve seen during the 2018 bear market, or the constant negative messaging led by the mainstream media insisting that ‘Bitcoin is dead’ or a ‘pyramid scheme’. Full Story
Strategist Who Called Bitcoin Crash Says It’s Time to Buy Crypto
Bitcoin is in the middle of a sustained recovery and investors should use recent weakness to buy more, according to Fundstrat technical strategist Robert Sluymer. The largest cryptocurrency climbed to its highest since November.
“Use pending pullbacks to continue accumulating Bitcoin in the second quarter in anticipation of a second-half rally through ~6,000 resistance,” Sluymer wrote in a note May 2. He sees Bitcoin’s rebound from its 200-week moving average and breakout from its first-quarter trading range as “the early stage of a longer-term recovery developing.”
Bitcoin advanced as much as 7.2 percent to $5,795.50 as of 9:33 a.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg composite pricing. The 55 percent jump in 2019 has helped pull rival tokens higher. Litecoin has soared more than two-fold.
Adding to the overall optimism Friday was a Wall Street Journal report that Facebook Inc. is reaching out to financial companies and online merchants to help launch a cryptocurrency-based payments system tied to the social network.
Sluymer warned in mid-November, when Bitcoin was trading around $5,500, that the asset had suffered “significant technical damage” that could take months to repair. Over the next several weeks, Bitcoin slid to as low as $3,136.04. In February, Sluymer cautioned that the technical position in the crypto space was still weak. Bitcoin didn’t recover the $5,000 level until early April.
Fundstrat was an early mover in analyzing cryptocurrencies and developed its own indexes. And Sluymer’s colleague, Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, is regarded as a Bitcoin bull. Full Story